Datong Securities: Large Increase In Exports Was Mainly Affected By Low Base Last Year.

China's export growth exceeded expected in May.

In May, China's import and export value was 243 billion 990 million US dollars, an increase of 48.4%.

Of which, exports amounted to $131 billion 760 million, an increase of 48.5%, an increase of 18.1 percentage points from last month, and an increase of 48.3% in imports of 112 billion 230 million dollars.

Compared with May 2008, imports and exports increased by 10.2%, of which exports increased by 9.2% and imports increased by 11.4%.

The sharp increase in May was mainly affected by the low base last year.

Although China's exports are affected by the economic crisis, the drop in the volume of exports is less than the value. That is to say, the share of the main international market will not rise or fall, which will be critical to the resumption of foreign trade.

In the first 5 months of this year, China's general trade import and export amounted to US $550 billion 430 million, an increase of 46.9%, which is 2.9 percentage points higher than that of the same period.

Among them, exports amounted to 256 billion 150 million US dollars, an increase of 32.5%, and imports of US $294 billion 280 million, an increase of 62.2%, which is 4.7 percentage points higher than that of the same period.

The trade deficit under general trade amounted to US $38 billion 130 million, compared with a surplus of US $11 billion 960 million in the same period in 2009.

Over the same period, China's processing trade imports and exports reached 429 billion 760 million US dollars, an increase of 39.4%.

Of which, exports of US $269 billion 920 million, an increase of 32.9%, and imports of US $159 billion 840 million, an increase of 51.8%.

The trade surplus under processing trade amounted to 110 billion 80 million US dollars, an increase of 12.6%, equivalent to 3.1 times the overall surplus of the same period.

Strong growth in emerging economies has also led to large exports of Chinese Electromechanical equipment closely related to investment.

In the first 5 months of this year, China's mechanical and electrical products exported 337 billion 430 million US dollars, an increase of 34.6%, which is 1.4 percentage points higher than the total export growth in the same period, accounting for 59.4% of the total export value of China in the same period.

Among them, exports of electrical and electronic products were 137 billion 180 million US dollars, an increase of 36%, and the export of machinery and equipment was US $114 billion 170 million, an increase of 33.9%.

At present, China has formed a high level of industrial accumulation in the world, making the paction cost and time greatly reduced.

This provides the foundation for China to successfully digest the pressure of raw materials, wage increases and exchange rate appreciation.

Strong digestion is our strong point relative to other emerging economies.

Exports in 2010 will be a resumption of growth, but it is almost impossible to reproduce the trend of an average annual growth of 30% in the first 5 years.

This year exports will show a trend of "before and after".

The inventory of distributors in the world has basically been used up, and some countries have taken the lead in going out of the trough, and demand will recover.

In the fourth quarter of last year, the decline in stock prices in the US GDP had narrowed substantially, and the inventory was launched in the first half of this year.

According to the historical experience of the United States, the replenishment activity has strong inertia, generally will continue for more than four quarters, coupled with the significant increase in equipment and software expenditure in the United States, making the export problem of China in the first half of the year is not big.

In the second half of the year, due to the sharp slowdown in the US stock taking rate in the fourth quarter, it is impossible to exclude the possibility of "two out of stock" in the external economy, and the speed of China's exports may slow down in the fourth quarter.