After The Dragon Boat Festival, PTA Entered The Traditional Off-Season.

In addition, due to the United States in May

Despite the problem of Europe, we turn our attention to the global economic engine of the United States.

In June 11th, the US Department of Commerce announced that the US sales in May decreased by 1.2%, which was unexpectedly lower than the market growth rate of 0.2%, while the April figure was revised up to 0.6%, higher than the previous 0.4%.

In addition, data released by the US Department of labor in June 4th showed that the number of jobs in the US non-agricultural sector increased by 431 thousand in May, the largest monthly growth since March 2000, while the total unemployment rate was slightly lower than that of last month's 9.9%, but still maintained at 9.7%.

However, the number of jobs increased in the US in May, but mainly because the US Census department's nationwide census expanded 411 thousand temporary employees, and the number of new jobs was still lower than the 515 thousand expected by economists.

After analyzing the above data, I think: the US economic data in May show us that the road of global economic recovery will not be as smooth as expected. If we connect with Europe, this uncertainty is expected to be stronger.

First of all, the consumption of the American economy on the basis of "survival" must be guaranteed by employment data.

Since the financial crisis, the sustained high unemployment rate has always been a major concern of the US government, but it has never been able to solve it effectively. Despite the short term results achieved through the increase of temporary jobs, this can not bring sustained support for consumption and economic recovery, which has been found from the data in May.

Secondly, the withdrawal of consumption stimulus policy is the main reason for the decline of consumer data in May.

At the end of April, the expiration of the US home purchase tax rebate policy led to a decline in consumer data in May.

Third, since the financial crisis, because of the serious impact of the family debt table in the United States, consumer credit has not been improved, which has led to the fact that credit itself has not played a leveraging role in consumption and has not played a real role in stimulating consumption, which is another major reason for the continuous improvement of consumer spending data.

This shows that once the follow-up economic stimulus policy has a vacuum, and consumer credit has not yet been improved, the high unemployment rate will be the biggest uncertainty or even fatal for the recovery of the US economy.

The adverse changes in employment and consumption data in May are also likely to be the turning point of the uncertain economic recovery.

Generally speaking, the author is cautious about the global economic situation in the second half of the year, and is also cautious about the price trend of commodities.

On the evening of June 19th, the central bank website published an article entitled "further promoting the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and enhancing RMB exchange rate flexibility", which indicated that the central bank will further promote the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and enhance RMB exchange rate flexibility according to the domestic and international economic and financial situation and China's balance of payments situation.

From the information revealed in the article, on the one hand, the central bank, by emphasizing the current balance of domestic imports and exports, and the significant decrease in the ratio of trade surplus to GDP, seems to imply that the RMB does not have the conditions and environment for short-term appreciation. At the same time, if we take into account a series of unstable situations in the recent economic environment abroad, we can further confirm this view.

On the other hand, from the central bank's further reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, we must adhere to the market supply and demand and adjust it with reference to a basket of currencies.

To maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level and maintain the stability of the macroeconomic and financial markets, the author believes that this may mean the central bank's attitude towards the current external economic environment and prudent financial market, and it is also a judgment to reveal the risk of large fluctuations in the international financial market.

Of course, if the link between the US dollar and the US dollar moves forward, I agree with this view and judgement. Because of the uncertainty of the European crisis, the role of the US dollar hedging assets will continue, and the pattern of the rise is not yet over.

In addition, if the dollar rise has not been judged by the outside world, then the downward trend of commodities is not yet over.

The overall trend of the commodity market is downward. Taking the lead crude oil and the London copper as an example, they fell respectively, which indicates that the focus of the future market will be in a downward trend in a certain period of time. Although there may be many opportunities for impulse rapid rebound during the period, the trend of the overall downward market will be determined by the characteristics of no more ups and down.

As the "three high" commodities with high profit, high opening rate and high inventory, PTA is facing great pressure after entering the traditional off-season.

Due to the overcapacity of PX in the upper reaches, the production profit of PTA has always been around 1000 yuan / tonne, and the high profit has also led to the high rate of operation of the PTA plant, which has always been above 90%. In addition, the warehouse receipts on the exchange have been at a historical high level because of the hot rising trend last year, and the pressure on the disk is more obvious.

It is also because of these unfavorable factors that lead to the relatively weak position of PTA in the traditional off-season cycle. Once the market is down as a whole, PTA will never be able to be independent.