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Medium Term Futures: US Economic Data Slump, PTA Continues To Fall

2010/7/1 16:08:00 48

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Market Review

Investors worry that global economic growth will slow oil demand growth, commodity prices and stock markets.

Total frustration

Crude oil prices also fell to a two week low.

Affected by this, today's PTA main contract 1009 low jump opened, opened 7244, the intraday price in the vicinity of the average moving weak, the highest 7286, the lowest 7232, afternoon price continued narrow oscillation, finally closed at 7272, compared with the 29 settlement price fell 122 points, or 0.44%, turnover 183740 hands, positions 164054 hand.

Two. Upstream and downstream market information

1, the US consumer confidence index has dropped sharply, and oil prices have dropped sharply.

The Conference Board significantly reduced China's April leading economic index to 0.3% on the 29 day, much lower than the 1.7% growth announced in June 15th, making the April growth rate a new low since November last year, rather than the biggest increase in 14 months previously shown.

The US consumer confidence index released in June also dropped sharply, ending the three consecutive month of rising consumer confidence.

The US National Hurricane Center (NHC) announced later that 29 tropical storm Arrakis became the first hurricane in the Atlantic's waters this year.

President Obama declared a state of emergency in Texas before the storm moved to the state.

The US marine energy management regulation and enforcement agency said that about 24.74% of Mexico's oil production and about 9.38% of natural gas production were stopped because of the tropical storm Alex.

However, the market generally believes that the storm is not directly attacking oil and gas producing areas, and is expected to have limited impact on the supply of crude oil.

New York commercial exchange

NYMEX August light crude oil futures contract settlement price fell 2.31 U.S. dollars, to 75.94 U.S. dollars per barrel, or 3%, the lowest level since June 14th, while the biggest single day decline since June 4th.

The contract touched a high of 78.32 US dollars per barrel in early trading, but it fell for most of the trading day.

Crude oil prices fell more than 9% in the second quarter, and futures contracts in recent months fell 6.8% compared with the beginning of the year.

ICE August Beihai Brent crude oil futures contract settlement price fell 2.15 U.S. dollars, to 75.44 U.S. dollars per barrel, or 2.8%.

The settlement price of RBOB gasoline futures in July fell 6.56 cents, or 3.1%, to $2.0720 a gallon.

The most active August RBOB gasoline futures contract settlement price fell 6.51 cents to 2.0651 dollars per gallon.

2, PX fell slightly compared with the previous day.

On the 29 day, the closing price of Asian PX was 885.50-886.50 USD / ton FOB Korea, 900.50-901.50 USD / ton CFR Taiwan, the price fell by 13 US dollars compared with the previous day.

3, polyester chip market atmosphere is light, polyester, polyester and short market stalemate consolidation

The domestic export market of Aquarius tablets is not much. The factory quotes mostly at 1170-1190 US dollars / ton FOB main port, and talks to maintain US $1160-1170 / ton FOB.

In South Korea, the mainstream factories discussed the level of turnover at 1150-1170 US dollars / ton FOB.

The market atmosphere of PTA and MEG is light, and prices are dropping slightly. Fiber polyester is relatively stable.

Affected by the above factors, the market of water bottles in East China continues to maintain stability. The factory quotes are concentrated in 9600-9800 yuan / ton cash or short distance, and the mainstream talks about 9500-9700 yuan / ton.

The staple market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has been deadlocked. The manufacturers' mainstream offer has maintained 9650-9800 yuan / ton. The price of individual manufacturers is still around 10000 yuan / ton, and the negotiation is close to 9600-9750 yuan / ton.

The market is dull and bad.

Affected by the weak external environment, the polyester Market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces tends to be stable today. Most enterprises maintain that only a small number of enterprises have increased their prices.

Now polyester POY mainstream talks about 11200-11250 yuan / ton, polyester FDY at 12250 yuan / ton, polyester DTY at 12600-12700 yuan / ton.

Three.

Spot market

observation

In the afternoon, the atmosphere of the PTA spot market in Asia is light. The spot spot is around $865-870 / ton, and the buyer's inquiry is $855 / ton. The negotiation intention is around 855-860 US dollars / tons. The intention of Korean production is 840-845 US dollars / tons, and the market real market is scarce.

In the afternoon, the atmosphere of PTA market in East China is weak. Some of the market offer is 7100-7150 yuan / ton, and the lower reaches of the market are on the low side, and the talks are at 7050-7100 yuan / ton, and the market is scarce.

Four. Market comment

On the whole, because of the worries that the two largest energy consumption in China and the United States has slowed down the possibility of economic growth in the market, the price of crude oil continued to decline overnight, and PX prices also fell slightly.

In Asia and East China, there was a weak atmosphere in stock and lower polyester chip prices in the lower reaches.

Technically, today's PTA main contract TA1009 continues to be weak callback, the paction has obviously shrunk, indicating that the market does not have much atmosphere. The 30 day moving average above still has a great suppression effect on the price.

On the operation, the PTA will still maintain a weak arrangement pattern. Investors are advised to try to wait for the low position.