Cotton Prices Remain Weak After &Nbsp, And The International Economy Remains Fragile.

In recent years, cotton reserves and quotas have not been affected at all times, and the yarn price has not been able to keep up with the off-season market. The trend of small decline is more than that. Although the spot market of cotton has been in a steady state, market purchasing has been waiting for a long time, but the cotton futures market has also been declining.

1, the international economic situation or the threat of "two bottom finding"

According to the chart below, we can see that the US ISM manufacturing index began to rebound from the beginning of 2009, and the market went all the way. However, in the past two months, the index showed a slight downward trend, the index stopped at 60 points, and this month stopped at 56.2 points, down 3.5 points.

The change in the US non farm payroll population has shown a decreasing trend since January 2008, although after 3 sharp bounce, the market began to look promising, but the economy was still fragile. The number of non farm payrolls decreased by 125 thousand this month.

In addition, the US unemployment rate has been hovering at 9.5% since June 2009. The number of initial jobless claims increased by 13000 to 472000 in June 26th, and the unemployment rate remained at 9.5%.

The number of non-agricultural employment decreased, the manufacturing industry continued to decline, and the unemployment rate was 9.5% for a long time. The pessimistic data on all sides had hit investors' confidence. The US consumer confidence index released by the US economic advisory chamber in June this month dropped by nearly 10 points to 52.9 last month.

As the world's most important economy, the uncertainty of the US economic recovery will exacerbate the market's worries about the "two bottom finding" of the economy, which will bring greater resistance to the upward march of Zheng cotton city.

2, RMB appreciation is not good for textile exports.

From the start of the RMB exchange rate reform, the RMB has been ups and downs, of which the renminbi has shown a clear upward trend against the US dollar.

Within half a month, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar rose from 6.8275 in June 18th to 6.7790 in July 6th, rising by 485 basis points, appreciated by 0.71%, and many times the new high since July 21, 2005.

Among them, the biggest increase in a single day is 295 basis points, the biggest drop in a single day is 122 basis points.

The spot market also rose rapidly. In July 6th, the closing price of RMB against the US dollar was 6.7749, up 525 basis points compared with the closing price in June 18th, and appreciated by nearly 0.77%.

As the main exporter of our country, the United States will start the exchange reform, and the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar will be unfavorable to the export of textiles.

According to the research, the sales profit margin of the textile industry has decreased by 2%-6%, and the garment industry with a high dependence on exports has been damaged more than 1%.

For the textile industry with a small profit margin, the appreciation of the renminbi will drive its profit space to be compressed again.

According to statistics of cotton enterprises in different provinces and sub scales, the total cotton business inventory in the end of June 2010 was 1 million 900 thousand tons (including cotton and cotton in circulation, excluding national cotton reserves).

The plan for dumping and storing 600 thousand tons of cotton quota has been approved and ready to start.

According to the monthly consumption of 800 thousand tons of cotton, as of the new flower listing, the total inventory of textile enterprises is 2 million 500 thousand tons, which can fully support the new flower listing, while the 7-9 month is the traditional textile off-season, the demand for cotton will be reduced, and the cotton gap will be satisfactorily resolved.

In addition, in view of the possible delay in the listing of new cotton this year, the state has made good preparations for importing, throwing and storing. At the same time, the state will adopt a series of supporting policies to ensure the market supply of cotton.

4, cotton planting area increased, cotton yield or improvement.

The US Department of agriculture's report on crop acreage released at the end of June shows that the 2010/11 cotton planting area is expected to increase by 19% in the year of 2010/11. Currently, due to favorable weather conditions, the US cotton growth is better (up to 48% in June 27th, compared with 29% in the same period last year).

The official statistics in India also performed well, and the new sown area increased by nearly 20% in June 24th as compared with the previous year in 2010/11.

2010/11 cotton production in West Africa is expected to grow by 15-20%. In addition, the planting area of Brazil cotton has been relatively stable, while the output per unit is steadily increasing. Cotton production in Brazil is expected to increase to 140-150 tons in 2010/11.

Although China's cotton planting area is stable at last year's level, its total output is expected to increase by 11%. Meanwhile, the increase of cotton planting area in India, the United States and West Africa also brings more {page_break} resources to the domestic cotton supply.

Cotton, polyester staple fiber and viscose staple are three main raw materials for cotton spinning industry.

There is competition among the three, mutual substitution and mutual support.

The high price of cotton will increase the use of polyester staple and viscose staple fiber.

High price of chemical fiber will block the drop of cotton space.

At present, the price of the 328 grade real estate cotton market is around 18300-18500 yuan / ton, when the polyester staple fiber is only 9500 yuan, the price difference between them is about 9000 yuan, while the price of 1.5D*38mm viscose staple fiber is near 18500 yuan, which is the same as cotton price.

Generally speaking, cotton is 2000-3000 yuan higher than that of cotton, which is normal. It is normal for cotton to stick short and up about 4000 yuan / ton. However, the price of cotton is high, not only far from polyester staple, but also nearly 0 with short stick, which will push cotton prices down and stabilize the price gap between the three.

Looking at the trend of viscose, cotton and polyester in recent years, we found that this phenomenon happened only in December 2008 and April of 2009. At that time, cotton and viscose prices were almost the same, and the gap between polyester and cotton was also around 4000 yuan. Why? Then, it was the most difficult time for financial crisis. Viscose, polyester and short in order to seize the flagging textile market, they had to sell their products at a price, and cotton prices were relatively high at that time, which is the result of State purchasing and storage.

Now, the turmoil of financial crisis is subsiding. Although the market of viscose staple and polyester staple fiber is not outstanding, many textile enterprises have joined the ranks of producing all cotton yarns under the drive of high profits. This also causes the demand for polyester staple fiber and viscose staple fiber to decrease. However, with the dropping of storage and the decline of all cotton yarn prices, it is unlikely that cotton will continue to be high.

6, cotton yarn rising no longer, began to slow down.

Starting from July, the role of off-season shows that there is a glimmer of decline in the whole cotton yarn market. Cotton textile enterprises are beginning to cool down, and some small factories have started preferential measures. The paction price is 300-500 yuan / ton more than the actual offer.

In addition, the purchasing enthusiasm of the whole cotton yarn market has begun to slump. The market generally reflects that the paction is insufficient, and the stock is starting to increase.

The high price of all cotton yarn has also led many enterprises to choose alternatives such as TR yarn, pure polyester yarn, polyester cotton yarn and so on.

The rise of cotton yarn will no longer drag the cotton spot market upwards. Besides, the demand for cotton yarn will not be enough. It will also reduce cotton consumption and further restrict the uplink of Zheng cotton futures.

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In addition, the export data of textile and clothing are not satisfactory. According to the latest statistics of the General Administration of customs, in May 2010, 94 thousand tons of cotton yarn imported from China decreased by 8.7% compared with the same month, and the import amount was 254 million US dollars, a decrease of 7.7% compared with the same month.

In May 2010, 58 thousand and 200 tons of cotton yarn exported, 10.55% higher than the chain, and the export amount was 239 million US dollars, up 11.74%.

In the same month, China exported 681 million meters of cotton cloth, 0.36% less than the ring, 75 million meters of imported cotton cloth, a 7.66% reduction in the ring ratio, a net export volume of 600 million meters, and the ring ratio rose by only 0.76%.

In addition, the unit price of export is also not obvious. In 2010, the unit price of cotton yarn increased by only about 10% compared with the same period in 2008, even less than 20% compared with the relatively low price in 2009. With the increase of domestic cotton yarn price of more than 50%, the survival of the cotton yarn business has not been improved, and the profit space has been further compressed.

7. Post market judgement and operation

Under the strong fundamentals support, Zheng cotton futures has reached the high point since 2003. However, with the strengthening of policy regulation and the positive expectation of cotton production or improvement, in addition, with the slowdown of the international economic growth and the effect of the off-season effect, the lack of action on Zheng cotton futures is not likely to continue to rise.

I believe that in the short term, CF1101 will pay attention to the support level of 16500 yuan / ton, and more than 16800 can consider short selling.