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People Say ICE Cotton: ICE Phase Cotton And Empty Out.

2010/7/12 17:40:00 36

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USDA monthly report is expected to increase significantly in the US.

Cotton yield

In the case of an increase of 19.26% to 10 million 900 thousand acres, the US cotton output reached 3 million 984 thousand tons in 2010/11, an increase of 50.11% over the previous year. Although the report was negative, the data were within the expected market range, while the US cotton production reached the limit. The world still had a gap of 796 thousand tons. After a short period of bad cash, the ICE cotton rebounded on Friday. The December contract rose 1 cents to 74.99 cents per pound, and once again stood at 74 cents / pound.

At present, the market sentiment is expected to gradually recover after the bad profits. The fund leaving the market will return to the market in the long term. The ICE cotton backing is supported by 74 cents per pound. The probability of a rise is very high.

Technically, in July 9th, ICE cotton rebounded and stood firm at 74 cents / pound. Although the short-term average line continued to decline, KD and MACD continued to make a downward adjustment in the short term. The mid term decline in ICE cotton did not change as a result of a day's rise.

However, the support of 74 cents / pound was verified, while the MACD index green column began to shorten, and the cotton price should not be tested for 74 cents per pound after the profits were realized. The probability of the rise of the rally will be great. It is suggested that the adjustment of last week's callback should be adjusted appropriately and the cotton ICE will be increased cautiously next week, but if the December contract falls below 74 cents / pound support position, the decline will continue, otherwise the cotton price will continue to rise for a long time, and the short-term target will reach 80 cents / pound.

domestic

Zheng cotton

Last week, the yarn price dropped and the ICE cotton continued to decline, which continued to fall. The 1101 contract was 16400 yuan / ton, and it fell to a low level of 16365 yuan / ton since the beginning of June.

However, cotton prices increased sharply in the 16400 yuan / tonne line, and the market divergence widening. It is expected that under the support of bad profits and ICE cotton rising and falling, today Zheng cotton is expected to stand steadily above 16500 yuan / ton, and the market is expected to become stronger gradually. It is suggested that 1101 more contracts should be added to the bargain, and 16400 yuan / ton will lose more than one single stop.

The 1009 contract remained strong because of continued stock decline and strong spot keeping.

Zheng cotton generally continued to be strong, weak, high and wide.

(Wanda futures Urumqi Sales Department Du Ying)

The market went against the bad and went higher than 100 points to continue to search for the bottom space.

Last weekend, the international market maintained a general upward trend.

ICE cotton

A sharp increase of 100 points will gradually build up the bottom space in technology, and the market may be repeated.

Market, as part of the export tax rebate adjustment, as well as the RMB appreciation expectations factor, in June, the import and export data released by customs reached a record high. In June, RMB loans increased by 603 billion 400 million yuan, with a decrease of 927 billion yuan compared to the same period, and the growth rate of money and credit continued to decline. In terms of agricultural products, the monthly USDA report of the market was generally bad, but the beans, corn and cotton had been increased. In terms of cotton, USDA increased the output of cotton and cotton to 3 million 980 thousand tons next year, higher than the 3 million 630 thousand tons forecast last month. The output of this year is only 2 million 650 thousand tons, and the stock from 610 thousand tons to 760 thousand tons at the end of next year is increased. China's data have not changed much. However, the weekly export report released by USDA on that day shows that the shipment volume has reached a new high of 81 thousand tons. On the news side, the data released by the United States last weekend were mixed.

Zheng cotton went down low last weekend, and after January, the main force broke down 16500 yuan in the first month of January, it was 16365 yuan in a low level. The volume of trading was weak, and the market remained weak. On the same day, the cotton market was sharply lower, the underlying spot sales were slow, the downstream spinning prices were lowered, the market was in a wait-and-see mood, and it was unfavorable for cotton futures. In the short term, there was a contention in the near future, but if the fundamentals were not good enough, the market would continue to downgrade and look for support and pay attention to the surrounding market atmosphere after repeated market.

Operation, short-term adjustment of market maintenance, it is not appropriate to intervene too early, wait and see.

(pioneering futures Dong Shuangwei)