Hubei Cotton Prices Like "Take The Elevator" All The Way Up.

Core tips

Continued upward in 9 and October last year.

However, since mid July, there have been many factors that affect cotton prices. The trend of cotton prices in the second half of this year is complicated and uncertain.

Hubei is one of the main cotton producing areas in the country. Under the condition of the limited cotton import quota and the coordination of cotton pportation in Xinjiang, the trend of real estate cotton prices in the second half of the year will have a great impact on the national market.

Therefore, it has attracted much attention.

Hubei real estate cotton stocks are almost bottoming out

In the first half of this year, cotton prices in the whole country showed the same way.

In recent years, the grain and oil prices in the international market have been rising continuously, stimulating food,

Xinjiang cotton, which occupies 1/3 of cotton production in the whole country, is an important factor affecting the cotton price in the whole country.

Since last year, pportation of important materials such as coal, oil and natural gas has made millions of tons of Xinjiang cotton difficult to pport, boosting the price of cotton in the whole country.

However, the main promoter of this round of rising cotton prices is the recovery of the downstream textile industry.

The Customs General Administration released export data 10 days ago, showing that the total export volume of textile and garment industry in 1-6 months was 88 billion 878 million US dollars, an increase of 22.09% over the same period last year.

Driven by the uplink of cotton prices all over the country, the quality and price of real cotton in our province is slightly lower than that of Xinjiang cotton, but it is also rising.

It is understood that Suizhou, Xiantao, Zhongxiang and many other cotton enterprises, real estate cotton inventory before June almost bottomed out.

While a large number of large cotton enterprises have a relatively large stock of lint, but most of them have hedged, and spot pactions are limited to some old customers.

Many textile enterprises have now come to the situation that no real estate cotton can be bought.

Increase in sowing area does not necessarily increase production.

In the near future of inventory, the harvest of new cotton will affect the trend of real estate cotton prices to a certain extent in the second half of the year.

Reporters learned from the 9.27,0.15,1.64% Futures Company that: in 09/10, affected by the continuous drought, the cotton yield per unit area in our province decreased slightly, but the quality was better than that in Shandong and Hebei provinces.

Driven by this, the cotton growing area in the province has increased by 15% this year, and the absolute number is around 7 million 800 thousand mu.

However, the increase in planting area does not mean that production will increase.

The results of the monitoring of 54 designated villages released by the Hubei Cotton Association at the end of May showed that the real estate cotton in our province generally failed to grow well this year, almost the worst in nearly ten years.

"The main performance is slow seeding and poor seedling.

The main reason of slow seeding process is still abnormal climate. It is difficult to grow when the temperature is low and the rain is long. Even if the temperature is low, the growth of cotton seedlings is very slow, which leads to slow pplanting.

Since the beginning of April, the temperature has been fluctuating, and the rain and litter have been affected. This has affected the germination and emergence of cottonseed. The seeding period has lasted from the beginning of April to the end of the month.

Since the 8 of this month, our province has been experiencing heavy rainfall for several days. There are different degrees of waterlogging in each cotton growing area.

The Eastern Hubei cotton region is the area where rainfall is more concentrated in the current round. The cotton fields in Huangmei, Wuxue and other places are seriously polluted. In the central cotton producing area, Xiantao and Tianmen county are generally in the water because of the low topography.

It is worth noting that this round of rainfall has not ended and is gradually shifting to northwest Hubei and Jianghan plain north road.

If rainfall exceeds 220 mm, which is not conducive to the growth of cotton, it will also drag down the growth schedule of cotton. The high temperature after the late rainy season can easily induce the disease of Verticillium wilt.

The report from Meyer futures provides that "a total of experience has resulted in a certain reduction in production, but it is still not easy to speculate on specific output."

As the growth period is generally postponed this year, the cotton concentrate will be on the market in late September or early October.

The core yield of cotton will be on the autumn peach, so the weather condition in 9-10 will become the key factor of cotton production this year.

Increase in market variables, cotton enterprises should prepare early {page_break}

Compared with the output of new cotton, the market is expected to be a more valuable reference for the future price of the new flower purchase price.

According to the survey of Meyer futures, it is generally expected that the price of new flower will be high.

In the second half of the year, the new flower resources grab war is inevitable.

"70% of them think that the price is 3.5-3.6 yuan / Jin, 25% think it is 3.8 yuan / Jin, 5% think it will be 4 yuan / Jin.

If the processing fee is not considered, the cost of lint cotton is 15160 yuan / ton, according to 38% of the 3.6 seed and 1.2 cottonseed.

Seed flower 3.8 yuan / Jin corresponds to lint 16250 yuan / ton cost.

Once the price exceeds 3.8 yuan / Jin, some cotton enterprises will buy and sell upside down.

However, some experts have warned that in the second half of the year, the price of new flowers will continue to be high while the price of new flower will not be overlooked. The price of new flowers will fall down with the change of international supply and demand situation. First, if the climate is fine in 9-10 months, the cotton farmers will have a lower market price. If the market price is rising, the selling of cotton will be in the early stage of the new flower listing. Three, the 40% increase in cotton production in the United States this year is a foregone conclusion, which will lead to the fall of international cotton prices, and then lead to the simultaneous return of domestic prices. Four is the possibility of further weakening of the global economy, which is now reappearing the declining trend, and four.

Huang Junfei, manager of the Futures Company research and consultation department of the Yangtze River, also believes that due to the uncertainty of macroeconomic uncertainty, the spot and futures prices of cotton will fall to the end of November, but the rate will not be too great.

The latest data from the national customs administration partly confirmed his fears.

Export figures for 1-6 months showed that the export growth of downstream garments was only half that of textiles.

Experts believe that the high fever of textile exports has a suspicion of hoarding raw materials, and the demand for cotton in the second half of this year is hard to maintain.

Although the views given by many agencies are not consistent, there is a principle for the basic expectation of cotton prices in the future market. We all agree that although the market is complex and changeable, cotton supply will be difficult to change before the listing of new cotton, and cotton prices will remain strong.

Even if cotton prices fall, they will remain relatively high in recent years, mainly based on soft landing.

Cotton related enterprises should be prepared early, focusing on the global supply and demand pattern, the capital chain and sales situation of spinning enterprises, as well as the changes in the macro situation, including climate evolution.