The State'S Policy Of Dumping And Storage Will Be &Nbsp; Cotton Price Will Return To 16 Thousand Or A Reasonable Price.

On the 23 day, the cotton futures price of the Zhengzhou Mercantile Exchange rose slightly.

At the close, Zheng cotton 1101 contract rose 60 yuan / ton to 16255 yuan / ton, the contract price is also between 16200-18865 yuan / ton.

"Since last year, cotton prices have entered a rising channel, and seed cotton and lint prices have been rising all the way.

Taking the price of lint three as an example, it was 12590 yuan / ton in August last year, and reached 18800 yuan / ton in early July this year.

Each ton increased by more than 6200 yuan.

On the 23 day held in Ji'nan, Shandong cotton business hedging high-end seminar, the first research and Development Center Deputy Manager, senior agricultural products analyst Dong Shuangwei said.

According to his analysis, consider the national throwing cotton store and

Supply and demand will be basically balanced.

According to the Economic Herald reporter, this year, domestic cotton prices continue to hit a new high, the spot market has even appeared the highest price of 19 thousand yuan / ton.

Under such circumstances, the state's expectation of controlling cotton prices has also been increasing.

In mid June, the China Cotton Association issued a price warning, suggesting that the plan for national reserve plan and quota increase has been completed and will be published at any time.

Market rumors say that the time of national dumping may be in mid July.

But so far, the specific way of dumping and increasing quotas has not been released yet.

Dong Shuangwei believes that the reason why the country has not been able to act is mainly based on the price of domestic resources in line with the international market, and the new cotton will be on the market.

"At this time, there seems to be no cotton in the market, so the price is rising, but because of the sudden emergence of hidden inventories and the fall in prices, the impact of this hidden inventory has now given way to the actual output of cotton."

According to Dong Shuangwei analysis, it is more accurate to judge future market based on output.

In the coming period, Xinjiang cotton and imported cotton will not have a significant impact on the market, mainly in throwing cotton reserves.

In terms of quantity, the state currently has about 1 million 200 thousand tons of cotton reserves. Considering the necessary strategic reserves, the quantity of cotton can be sold is about 600 thousand tons.

According to the survey data at the end of June, the total cotton business inventory in China is 1 million 900 thousand tons (including cotton and cotton entering the circulation link, excluding national cotton reserves). If the 600 thousand tons of reserves are fulfilled, the total supply will be 2 million 500 thousand tons.

Before the listing of new cotton, according to 3 months and 880 thousand tons of consumption per month, the demand for textile enterprises amounted to 2 million 640 thousand tons, with a slight gap.

But in fact, many large and medium-sized textile enterprises bought a large quantity of cotton spare parts at low prices, and before the new cotton came into the market, the supply and demand of cotton basically balanced.

16 thousand / ton or reasonable price.

Where will the price of the new year go?

Dong Shuangwei said that the price of lint is still over 18 thousand yuan / ton.

"At present, the price of US cotton is about 73 cents / pound, plus taxes and fees, which can reach 15 thousand yuan / ton in China, and then consider the normal price difference at home and abroad. Finally, it is more suitable for 15 thousand and 800 -1.6 yuan / ton."

On the whole, cotton spot prices return to 16 thousand yuan / ton is a suitable price.

At the same time, according to the global supply and demand forecast issued by the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC), global cotton output is expected to increase by 14% to 25 million tons in the year 2010/2011.

In terms of consumption, global cotton consumption is estimated at 24 million 900 thousand tons, an increase of 2% over the same period.

"On the whole, on the basis of the balance of supply and demand, whether it is the Zheng cotton 1009 contract representing the old cotton, or the 1101 contract that represents the new cotton market in the future, the driving force is not enough.

The current increase is likely to be the last craziness, and investors should be calm.

One analyst said.

Dong Shuangwei said that the price of lint rose from about 10 thousand yuan / ton to the current 18 thousand yuan / ton, and the profitability of textile enterprises has also hit a record high.

With the gradual return of cotton prices, the high profit period of spinning enterprises may also end.