Complex Environment And Uncertain Factors Lead To Textile Industry'S "High Before And After Low".

　　 With the relevant data coming out one after another, the economic operation of the textile industry surfaced in the first half of the year. On the one hand, the industry has maintained a momentum of rapid development. On the other hand, the complex economic recovery situation and many uncertain factors have brought a layer of fog to the operation of the industry in the second half of the year.

Rapid growth of main indicators and steady improvement of operation quality

Sun Huaibin, director of the China Textile Economic Research Center, pointed out that in the first half of the year, the operation of the industry has two major characteristics. First, from the perspective of the main economic indicators of the industry, production, domestic sales, exports and investment have maintained a two digit growth, especially the obvious increase in the efficiency of enterprises, indicating that the industry has maintained a relatively fast and favorable trend.

China Textile Industrial Association The data provided show that in the 1~5 months of this year, 53 thousand and 300 enterprises above Designated Size in the textile industry totaled 1 trillion and 686 billion 522 million yuan in gross industrial output value, an increase of 26.55% over the same period last year, and the growth rate increased by 21.43 percentage points over the same period last year.

From the perspective of consumption, exports and investment, the first half of this year For the domestic market The market continued to improve, the international market improved, exports rebounded gradually, and investment grew steadily.

In 1~5 months, clothing retail sales increased by 23.1% over the same period last year, up 1 percentage points from the same period last year. Textile Enterprises above Designated Size reached 1 trillion and 347 billion 636 million yuan in domestic sales value, an increase of 29.80% over the same period last year, and the growth rate increased by 20.38 percentage points over the same period last year. The share of domestic sales accounted for 81.71% of the industry's sales value, which was 1.77 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year.

With the gradual recovery of the international market and the increase in demand for replenishment of purchasers, 1~5 textiles Clothing export The total amount reached 72 billion 205 million US dollars, an increase of 19.52% over the same period last year, and the growth rate increased by 30.65 percentage points over the same period last year, an increase of 3.76 percentage points over the 1~4 months of this year.

1~5 months, the total investment in fixed assets of the textile industry over 5 million yuan reached 116 billion 187 million yuan, an increase of 19.87% over the same period last year, and the growth rate increased by 14.17 percentage points over the same period last year.

The adjustment of industrial structure and the pace of industrial upgrading continue to accelerate, and the quality of operation has been steadily raised.

In the 1~5 months of this year, the production and sales rate of textile enterprises above designated size was 97.79%, 0.34 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year, and the production and marketing connection was smooth. The output value of new products increased by 34.91%, higher than the total output value of industrial products by 8.36 percentage points, and the contribution of product innovation to the development of the industry was outstanding. The labor productivity was 378 thousand and 300 yuan / person, an increase of 24.87% over the same period last year, and the rate of increase was 18.08 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year, and the production efficiency was speeded up. The three fee ratio was 6.03%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points over the same period last year, and the management level continued to increase. The turnover rate of finished products was 18.71 times per year, which was accelerated compared with the same period last year, and the market reaction ability and operation efficiency of enterprises continued to improve.

Based on the good and pick-up of domestic and international markets, the operation quality of the industry has been continuously improved, and the base efficiency of the same period of last year has been relatively low. In 1~5 months, the total profit of textile enterprises above Designated Size amounted to 71 billion 901 million yuan, an increase of 61.1% over the same period last year. The growth rate was 61.24 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year, and the sales profit margin was 4.43%, up 0.91 percentage points over the same period last year.

The sharp increase in cost pressure has led to an increase in uncertainty.

But at the same time, due to the gradual expansion of the base in the same period last year and the increase in cost pressures, production growth slowed down from the two quarter, and the uncertainty of the operation of the industry increased.

1~5 months, the total industrial output value of textile enterprises above designated size increased by 0.43 percentage points over the first quarter. From the growth rate of the output of major textile products, the production of chemical fiber in the above scale enterprises increased by 15.86% over the same period last year, up 8.03 percentage points from the same period last year, but the growth rate dropped by 4.14 percentage points compared with the first quarter of this year. The yarn production increased by 17.41% over the same period last year, up 8.39 percentage points from the same period last year, a decrease of 2.21 percentage points compared with the first quarter, and the output of cloth increased by 17.38% over the same period last year, a 18.24 percentage point increase over the same period last year, a decrease of 0.26 percentage points compared with the first quarter of the year.

According to the National Bureau of statistics, the purchase price of raw materials, fuels and power increased by 10.8% in the first half of the year. Among them, the purchasing price index of fuel power increased by 23.6% over the same period of last month 1~5, and the rising price of production factors has become a prominent problem affecting the operation of the textile industry at this stage.

The rising cost of production factors has increased the cost pressure of enterprises. Cotton prices have risen too fast, which has increased the difficulty of raw material procurement and inventory risks of textile enterprises, and the cost pressure is difficult to transmit through the industrial chain to terminal consumption, which also makes the textile industry chain face greater cost pressures and increase the uncertainty of the operation of the industry. Sun Huaibin said.

Affected by the market rebound, the expansion of industry demand and the difficulties in Sinotrans cotton transportation, domestic cotton prices have continued to rise rapidly this year, and the average price has increased by more than 40% over the past year. Driven by this, the price of domestic cotton yarn has increased by more than 40%, while the price of grey cloth in middle reaches has increased by about 20%, while the producer price of terminal products has increased by only about 2% compared with the same period last year, and its retail price has dropped by 1% over the same period last year.

In addition, this year, due to the market warming and the increasing demand for labor, the shortage of labor in textile enterprises in the southeast coastal areas is serious. It is understood that the cost of labor in textile enterprises has increased by about 20% over the year since 2009.

The market and policy environment is complex, and the whole year is now "high before and after low" {page_break}

Analysis of the current market and policy environment facing the textile industry, sun Huaibin said that in the first half of this year, China's GDP grew by 11.1%, exports and consumption contributed significantly, investment growth stabilized, and macroeconomic fundamentals were better.

Analyzing the domestic policy environment of the industry in the second half of the year, sun Huaibin analysis pointed out that from the perspective of fiscal policy, the implementation of a series of macroeconomic control measures taken by the state as the focal point of "expanding domestic demand and improving people's livelihood" will be conducive to the textile industry to expand the domestic demand market.

From the perspective of monetary policy, moderately loose monetary policy has highlighted "moderate". Credit scale has been tightened this year. Although the benchmark interest rate has not been raised, commercial interest rates have been generally raised. This is even worse for the textile industry which has difficulty in lending.

From the perspective of the policy of exchange rate reform, the new exchange rate reform announced by the central bank in June 19th has increased the elasticity of exchange rate and the appreciation of RMB has increased. In the current textile industry export and employment rebound trend is still not stable, and there are many uncertainties in the international market, if the RMB enters the rapid appreciation cycle too early, it will seriously affect the continued recovery of the industry's exports and the maintenance of the international market share, which is even more unfavorable to the stability of employment in the industry.

From the perspective of industrial policies, the recent control of the real estate industry will have a direct impact on the steel and building materials industries, which will indirectly affect the market demand of household appliances, home furnishing and home textile industries. The elimination of backward, energy saving and emission reduction policies will continue to promote the adjustment and upgrading of printing and dyeing, chemical fiber and other industries.

In addition, if the prices of production factors continue to rise too fast, the cost pressure will reduce the profitability of the industry, and the profit growth rate of 0.9 percentage points in the first half of this year will also be threatened.

Turning to international factors, sun Huaibin pointed out that this year the global economy has recovered significantly and exceeded expectations. Its characteristics are that the United States and Japan are better than the euro zone, and developing countries are better than developed countries. But we should see that there are still many uncertainties in the international market demand outlook. First, the high unemployment rate in developed economies such as the US, Europe and Japan has restricted the growth of personal consumption, and the economic recovery driven by policies is still insufficient. Two, the sovereign debt crisis caused by excessive use of financial resources in some EU countries will inevitably shrink spending and credit for crisis management, which is bound to drag the EU's economic recovery, and its impact is likely to further spread. The depreciation of the euro will also affect the recovery of confidence in the eurozone market.

Taking all these factors into consideration, sun Huaibin has judged that the textile industry will show a steady upward trend in 2010. However, with the gradual reduction of the low base factor last year and the prominent cost pressures, the industry's economic growth in the second half of this year will be slower than that in the first half of the year.