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Contradiction Between Supply And Demand &Nbsp; Cotton Price Will Run High.

2010/8/12 8:26:00 24

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Cotton Price Contradiction Between Supply And Demand

Combined with the current market situation at home and abroad,

supply and demand

Tension is still the main factor that supports the high price of cotton.

Despite the historical price trend,

Cotton price

During the 5-9 months, most of the years came out of the downlink. But this year, the tension between supply and demand will break the rules of history.

At present, the international market has been expecting an increase in output, and the largest increase in output is in the US.

According to the US Department of agriculture, the cotton planting area increased by 20% in the United States, and the yield was initially estimated by 36% as compared with that in 2009.

Other countries including India, Uzbekistan, Pakistan and even China have increased production expectations, but cotton prices remain high because of good demand.

The price of cotton futures in the outer market has basically kept up and down for 80 cents, and domestic futures contracts have been hovering around 18 thousand and 500 yuan / ton in recent months.

Today, due to the rare floods in Pakistan affected cotton production, which led to repeated efforts of multi funds, resulting in global cotton prices out of the rebound.

From the perspective of global aggregate supply and demand, the decline in supply of any country will aggravate the already tight supply and demand relationship between cotton and its price.

Domestic data and information can see cotton more.

Tight supply and demand

Extent.

First of all, the lack of domestic production is well known.

In 2009, about 6 million 500 thousand tons of cotton were produced in China. According to the statistics of relevant departments in 2010, the total area of sowing was slightly reduced from last year, which is estimated at 77 million 100 thousand mu.

Affected by low temperature during sowing period, the development period of cotton was delayed compared with previous years.

As temperatures rise, cotton growth has accelerated.

Except for the southern part of the Changjiang River Valley and the southern Xinjiang, the meteorological conditions in most cotton regions are more favorable for cotton budding, and the occurrence of pests and diseases is rather light.

The total output of cotton is estimated to be 7 million 60 thousand tons, an increase of 3.9% over the previous year.

According to the customs statistics of China, in the 6 million 500 thousand tons of output in 2009, China imported 2 million 264 thousand and 700 tons of cotton from September 2009 to July 2010, an increase of 927 thousand and 400 tons compared with the same period last year, an increase of 69.36%.

Finally, China's cotton imports will reach 2 million 400 thousand tons in 2009/10.

Considering the state's dumping and storage, the domestic demand will exceed ten million tons.

2010 tons of 7 million tons of output still can not meet the needs of the domestic market.

At the same time, the state reserves will basically run out of grain. In the next year, as long as demand is not falling, cotton prices will be difficult to fall.

It can be seen from another set of data that China's demand is growing rapidly.

According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs in August 10th, China's textile and garment exports totaled 20 billion 795 million US dollars in July 2010, an increase of 27.01% over the same period last year.

The total textile exports amounted to US $7 billion 191 million, an increase of 35.09% over the same period last year, and clothing exports totaled US $13 billion 604 million, up 23.12% over the same period last year.

In 1-7 months, the total export volume of China's textile and clothing increased by 22.94%, of which 32.74% of textile exports increased and 17.33% of clothing grew by a cumulative increase.

On the one hand, a large number of export demand is the recovery of the international economy from the trough, and on the other hand, the superposition of replenishment needs to jointly promote the rapid growth of exports.

At the same time, the export orders of the textile industry are good, with only a slight drop in profits.

It is evident that the good export situation will continue to maintain, which is also more intense for the cotton market already in the supply and demand gap.

On the whole, the high price of cotton is not the market capital.

speculation

It is actually the contradiction between supply and demand.

Combined with the current market situation, cotton prices will not be changed easily before new cotton is listed.

Even if the new cotton goes public, it is expected to bring pressure to the market and not to bring down the price.

The contradiction between supply and demand will go up at a high price.