Is Cotton Price Soaring Due To "Black Hand" Or Shortage Of Supply And Demand?

China's chemical fiber industry has two major characteristics in raw materials, which are highly dependent on oil and highly dependent on imports. The cost of raw materials accounts for a large proportion in the production and operation of enterprises.

From this year's situation, the bottleneck problem of raw materials in domestic chemical fiber industry is still outstanding.

Fortunately, the localization of raw materials in some industries is faster and has a positive effect on the operation of the industry.

Continuous game between polyester raw materials and demand

It can be said that the overall trend of polyester raw materials this year has run counter to the raw material prices of other major chemical fiber varieties.

Since 2010, international crude oil prices have remained stable throughout the world, and have slowed down after May.

Crude oil and its own supply and demand, polyester raw materials PX, PTA, MEG prices also fell slowly, polyester products prices fell.

However, under the pull of downstream textile demand, the polyester polyester industry has a higher operating rate, especially in the two quarter. The price of the products is generally stable and firm, and the output and benefits are better.

Since the beginning of this year, international crude oil prices have oscillated at a low level of US $65~85, and the volatility has been stable compared with previous years.

The price of crude oil has no support for PX, and the overall supply of the world's PX is adequate (especially in the Middle East when Kuwait and Oman's new plant have started to stabilize supply to China market, and India's supply has increased correspondingly), so prices have fallen slowly.

Shortage of nylon CPL left speculation space

With the increase of nylon downstream polymerization and spinning start up rate, the price of CPL, the main raw material of nylon, increased from 18900 yuan / ton in January this year, and intermediaries made use of the CPL anti-dumping investigation case in April to raise the price of CPL to the highest point of 23200 yuan / ton in early May.

The rising price of raw materials has finally made it impossible for downstream enterprises to bear. Spinning and polymerization enterprises have reduced the operating rate to cope with the situation of raw material prices. The price of CPL has dropped all the way, and has fallen to 19200 yuan / ton in late June.

Adiponectin

CPL import dependence is still very high, and the shortage of domestic CPL has brought speculation and opportunities to intermediaries.

After the fall in international crude oil prices in May, the price of CPL continued to rise, mainly due to speculation among middlemen.

As a result, the fluctuation of nylon prices and nylon prices in the first half of the year did not always follow the trend of crude oil or benzene.

While the price of raw materials has gone up, several main industries in the downstream of nylon have developed rapidly, with the growth rate between 12% and 18%, which provides room for the development of the nylon industry.

Although the growth rate of the downstream development is smaller than that of nylon, but the base of the purified fabric, silk and interwoven woven fabric is larger, and the demand for nylon is relatively large.

The price difference of viscose products is narrowed.

According to some middlemen, the recent business of viscose raw materials is not very good, because the price of raw materials has already exceeded the acceptable scope of downstream enterprises.

Indeed, at the end of June this year, the price of raw materials in viscose fiber industry increased substantially compared with the same period last year.

Taking viscose staple as an example, the cotton pulp compares with the price difference of about 5500 yuan / ton vertically, and the price difference between products is only 3000 yuan / ton, and the profit margin of products is reduced. Compared with the price difference between raw material purchase and product sale, the horizontal comparison is only 5400 yuan per ton, which can not meet the processing cost at all.

If the enterprise produces products according to the current price raw materials, it must be a loss.

However, the situation of different enterprises is different, and the situation of overall loss will not appear.

Generally speaking, the time and price of raw material purchase will have a greater impact on the profits of enterprises.

There is still a considerable profit margin for some enterprises with proper procurement strategy.

The price of two cotton lint and lint pulp rose to the highest level in March this year.

However, because of the strong demand pull, the price of imported dissolving pulp remains high.

Viscose filament prices fell slightly after the beginning of the year, showing a steady upward trend, which stabilized after mid May, and declined slightly in June.

The average import price of raw materials increased considerably compared with the same period last year, and the cost of production was greatly increased for enterprises that rely on imported raw materials to produce fibers.

Overall, the viscose fiber industry has shown that this year, the price of raw materials has been rising continuously and maintained at a high level due to the price of raw materials. The supply and demand of products are basically balanced, and the export situation of products is stable.

Acrylic loss business increased

In the financial crisis, the acrylic fiber industry, which has been in decline for many years, has been sighed this year.

The reason for this is that the price rise of raw materials and acrylonitrile is to blame.

Acrylonitrile price rose from 8800 yuan / ton in early July 2009.

Especially after entering 2010, when it reached a high price of 15000 yuan / ton, there was no sign of stopping. It continued to rise sharply to 21000 yuan / ton in May 19th, which made it difficult for downstream enterprises to bear.

Since then, the price of acrylonitrile has begun to drop as international oil prices go down.

In the lower reaches and wait-and-see atmosphere, acrylonitrile prices finally fell sharply, and finally reached 180 million / ton.

Whether acrylic staple fiber or acrylic top, the price trend is the same as acrylonitrile.

However, from the beginning of 2010 to the end of May, the price difference between acrylic staple fiber and acrylic fiber top and acrylonitrile gradually decreased, which was only 2000 yuan / ton to 3000 yuan / ton.

Such a price is far from the cost of processing, so the acrylonitrile enterprises that do not produce acrylonitrile themselves are operating at a loss.

In the first half of this year, the output of acrylic fiber had a negative growth in the main varieties of chemical fiber, and the output was 276 thousand and 400 tons in 1~5 months, a decrease of 0.43% compared with the same period last year, which is obviously lower than that of the total output of chemical fiber.

The main reason for the analysis is that among the major chemical fiber varieties, acrylic fiber is one of the smallest number of production enterprises.

In the second half of 2009, the price of acrylonitrile prices rose too fast, and many acrylonitrile plants which did not own acrylonitrile production reduced production or even stopped production.

The price of acrylonitrile increased significantly, greatly improving the production cost of acrylic fiber, but the price of acrylic fiber was difficult to keep up in time.

In particular, the substitution effect of other synthetic fiber products has virtually reduced the competitiveness of acrylic products.