Can The Spandex Market Save Energy For The Next Price Rise?
Over the past few years, the market of polyurethane fiber has stopped falling, and the overall situation has remained stable. Does this mean that the spandex market is accumulating energy and ready for the next price increase?
I think this is entirely possible, because the recent signs of rising prices have emerged, some spandex specifications such as spandex 40D has begun to appear tight supply situation, making some Spandex Enterprises pull up mentality is more obvious.
The specific reasons are as follows:
First,
spandex
The factory is in good condition and its inventory is decreasing.
Since August, the installation load of Spandex Enterprises has gradually decreased, from about 90% of the end of last month to about 76% now. This is mainly due to the further strengthening of Zhejiang's power restriction policy, the increase in production and production of enterprises, and the maintenance of many enterprises.
While the load of the spandex manufacturers is decreasing, the inventory status of the enterprises is also decreasing. The statistics show that the inventory of spandex manufacturers has dropped from 26 days in the early days to 23 days.
Inventory status is a direct manifestation of the quality of an enterprise's operation. The less inventory, the better the operation state. Judging from the current inventory trend of spandex manufacturers, it should be said that it is a good performance, so the recent spandex 40D supply has begun to appear tighter.
Two, recent
raw material
The market of PTMEG and MDI is improving steadily.
Since entering the second half of 8 months, the price of PTMEG products is still relatively stable. Although there are also a slight decrease in the price of some goods, the overall situation is relatively stable. The price gap between brands is quite obvious, and some PTMEG producers' inventory is not very large.
And the BDO market prices continue to decline and other factors also affect the downstream products market, resulting in the downstream enterprise procurement raw materials are very cautious.
In terms of pure MDI, the demand for pure MDI market in August is still acceptable, although some downstream businesses are still bargaining, but the spot MDI market is still relatively stable.
From the latest development of raw material pure MDI
Export volume
In July, the import volume of pure MDI was 8539 tons, compared with 7041 tons in June, an increase of 1498 tons, an increase of 21.3%, mainly in Korea and Japan. In July, the export volume was 4073 tons, an increase of 247 tons compared with the 3826 tons in June, an increase of 6.4%. The domestic pure MDI was mainly exported to Taiwan and Japan.
These data indicate that the import and export volume of pure MDI is increasing, and the countries that import and export are mainly concentrated in the Asian region, so the debt crisis in Europe is not very influential.
In addition, according to the current production situation, the supply of pure MDI should be relatively adequate, and the market will keep stable.
Three, the domestic and international economic situation is optimistic, spandex exports continue to grow.
At present, the international economic situation is generally in the process of a comprehensive recovery.
Although the US figures for the second quarter have been callback, the US economy is still recovering, and there will not be a two dip in general. Japan, after the yen appreciation in the late 80s, has been in negative growth or zero growth for more than 10 consecutive years.
In terms of foreign trade figures in the first half of the year, China's trade with the United States increased by 30% in the first half of the year, and the foreign trade in Europe increased by 34%, and Japan's foreign trade grew even more. All these indicate that their economic situation is relatively good, and that the recovery of the world economy is certainly beneficial to the Chinese economy.
From the import and export of spandex over the past few months, we can see that in recent months, the export volume of spandex has been increasing gradually, from 3108 tons in April to 3459 tons in July, while the import of spandex has been decreasing, from 1526 tons in April to 1226 tons in July, a drop of 19.7%.
The import and export data of Spandex Covered Yarn are even more prominent. In June, 67 tons of covered yarn were exported, and 130 tons were exported to July, the growth rate almost reached 50%.
From these data, we can see that the export volume of spandex in China is always higher than that of imports. At the same time, it shows that the production capacity of spandex in China is gradually strengthening, and the peripheral market is also gradually improving.
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