Analysis Of China'S Economic Trend In July

The National Bureau of Statistics announced the 11 July.

"The more prominent phenomenon in July is the slow growth of some economic indicators. We have many views and concerns about this issue.

I want to say that China's economic growth momentum is still strong.

Sheng Lai Yun, spokesman for the National Bureau of statistics, responded at a press conference.

As a representative index of monthly economic growth rate, China's industrial added value of above scale increased by 13.4% in July, and the growth rate dropped by 0.3 percentage points over June.

From stimulating economic growth "

Although these economic indicators have come down, the rate of decline is not large.

24.9% of investment growth, 17.9% of consumption growth and 38.1% of export growth are at a higher position.

In particular, the decline in industrial growth has narrowed from 2.6 percentage points in June to 0.3 percentage points in July.

"At present, the fall of economic indicators is mainly the result of active macro-control."

Sheng Yun analysis showed that the industrial growth rate dropped 0.3 percentage points in June, and 70% was caused by the fall in heavy industry. The main reason is that since the two quarter, the state has intensified the supervision of energy conservation and emission reduction, and has intensified the elimination of backward production capacity.

The same is true of investment.

Since the beginning of this year, the state has strictly controlled new projects, which has led to a slowdown in the growth of fixed asset investment.

"Last year's package plan has been growing vigorously, and the economy has rebounded in a short period of time.

In the first quarter of this year, the economic growth rate is close to 12%, some of which are high and unfavorable to the adjustment structure.

Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Ministry of macroeconomic development of the State Council Development Research Center, pointed out that the next step will be a reasonable guidance of policies and economic growth will gradually stabilize.

It is worth noting that this year's policy driven private investment has started signs.

Statistics show that in recent five months, the growth rate of private investment has exceeded the growth rate of fixed assets investment in all cities.

From 1 to July this year, private investment increased by 31.9% over the same period last year, 7 percentage points higher than the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the same period.

The proportion of private investment also increased. As of July, private investment accounted for 52% of all fixed assets in cities and towns, an increase of 2.7 percentage points over the same period last year.

"China's economic growth momentum is still strong."

Sheng Lai Yun analysis pointed out that from the development stage, China is now in the stage of accelerated industrialization and urbanization, and the demand for investment and consumption is strong.

Last year, 4 trillion yuan investment laid a solid foundation for this year's economic growth. The start-up of private investment enhanced the endogenous driving force of investment.

Consumption is developing mainly from food and clothing to housing and housing, and the demand for cars and housing is strong.

"At present, we are in a critical period of pition from rapid economic growth to stable growth. The appropriate drop in economic growth will help prevent economic growth from overheating to overheating, which is conducive to speeding up economic restructuring and pformation of development mode."

Sheng Lai Yun pointed out.

Although the overall situation is good, we should not be blindly optimistic.

At present, China's economy is facing an extremely complex situation at home and abroad. The recovery of the world economy is tortuous. It is very difficult for China's economy to deal with the relationship of ensuring growth, adjusting the structure and managing inflation expectations.

At this time, we must stabilize our positions, closely observe and respond at any time. Under the overall stability of macroeconomic policies, we should enhance flexibility and pertinence.

"Although the economic growth has slowed down, there has been no abnormal change.

The three quarter economic growth rate is expected to be 9.2%, the fourth quarter is expected to be 8.5%, and the whole year is expected to be 9.8%.

Zhu Baoliang, deputy director of the Economic Forecasting Department of the state information center, said.