Review Of Cotton Market And Forecast For Future Market

(1) market review

Global

(two) Fundamentals

1. When cotton enters the picking period in China, it is busy harvesting all over the country.

As of mid September, China's the Yellow River River Basin, the Yangtze River Basin and most parts of Xinjiang were in the picking stage.

Xinjiang cotton area, North China, Huang Huai, Jianghuai and other places are mainly cloudy or scattered precipitation, meteorological conditions are basically conducive to cotton picking, picking and harvesting busy everywhere, seed cotton acquisitions have begun, overall, the new cotton market overall this year has been postponed compared with previous years.

This year, China's cotton planting area is 76 million 940 thousand mu, which is 1.1% lower than that of the previous year. From August to September this year, the cotton association of China conducted an investigation into the main producing areas of cotton in China. According to the survey results, the average output per unit area of cotton is 87.1 kg / mu this year, down 0.4% from the same period last year, and the total output this year is 6 million 700 thousand tons, down 1.5% from the same rate.

Because of the continuous rain and light weather in the Yellow River basin in August, the growth of some cotton plants was affected.

However, this year's cotton output in China will need to pay attention to the picking process of cotton in Xinjiang and other places in October. It will seriously affect cotton picking and new cotton quality if it rains or sleet.

2. Progress of cotton throwing and storage in China

In order to guarantee the supply of cotton before the new cotton market and stabilize the cotton market, the state decided to start selling 600 thousand tons of reserve cotton in August 10th.

By the end of September 25th, 90% of the dumping task had been completed, and the amount of pre storage was maintained between 12000 and 16000 tons / day (as shown in Figure 2-2).

Because of the strong demand for cotton, since September 9th, the state has increased the intensity of its efforts, and the daily volume has increased to about 20000 tons.

The average price of throwing and storing cotton increased from 18208 yuan / ton in August 10th to 23890 yuan per ton in September 25th, or more than 30%.

Converted into 328 level price since September 6th has been on the Chinese cotton price index (level 328) above, that is, throwing cotton storage price is higher than the spot price, we can see that the market for China's cotton inventory and supply concerns continue to rise, cotton enterprises auction cotton throwing cotton enthusiasm is higher.

3. Cotton imports in China as at August

According to customs statistics, in August, China imported 240 thousand tons of cotton in 2010/11, an increase of 130 thousand tons compared with the same period last year, an increase of 118.9%, an increase of 71 thousand tons, an increase of 42%.

From 1 to August this year, China imported 1 million 952 thousand tons of cotton, an increase of 976 thousand tons compared with the same period last year, an increase of 100%.

It can be seen that the import volume of cotton in China has increased significantly, and the domestic market is worried about the shortage of cotton supply and the increase of cotton prices.

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China's cotton yarn output and textile export statistics in 4 and August

According to the statistics of National Bureau of statistics, the output of Chinese yarn was 2 million 468 thousand tons in August, an increase of 327 thousand tons compared with that of the previous year, an increase of 15.3%.

From 1 to August this year, China's yarn production totaled 17 million 498 thousand tons, an increase of 2 million 439 thousand tons compared with the same period last year, an increase of 16.2%.

In August, China's textile and apparel exports amounted to 20 billion 140 million US dollars, up 23.7% over the same period last year.

From 1 to August this year, China's textile and apparel exports totaled 129 billion 800 million US dollars, up 23.7% over the same period last year.

In general, the production of textile cotton yarn in China has risen slightly, the price is relatively stable, and the export volume of textile and clothing has increased.

The price of cotton and chemical fiber at the front of the industrial chain fluctuates, including normal market supply and demand factors, and the excessive reserves caused by panic psychology.

(three) market paction

1, as of September 21st, the change of volume and position of Zheng cotton index

Since September, the cotton market has been trading fiercely, and the volume of pactions has been expanding.

As of September 21st, Zheng cotton's turnover totaled more than 1285 hands, an increase of 230% over August, and investors were enthusiastic about speculation.

The holdings were nearly 500 thousand, up nearly 67% from August.

2. Analysis of the difference between Zheng cotton price and China's cotton price index (CC Index 328)

From 2005 to the first half of this year, China's cotton spot market has maintained a general consistent trend. In mid June of this year, due to the excessive holdings of zhengmian 1009, the relevant departments issued a regulatory policy for stabilizing the cotton market. The Zheng Mian index showed a pattern of sideways arrangement. At that time, cotton spot prices continued to maintain their upward trend, maintained at 18000 points, and the current price spreads gradually widened, and the spot price signals were distorted.

With the main contract of Zheng cotton index changing for the month, the price of cotton futures has been accelerating since the end of 7. The price difference between the spot market and the spot market has been amended to make the cotton futures market return to the same trend.

Generally speaking, China's cotton is in the picking stage at present. The main producing areas are busy picking up work. Some cotton producing areas have already entered the market, and the moisture content of new cotton is relatively high.

The end of picking is still the most critical for more than a month. The weather conditions in October will directly determine cotton production in China this year.

In terms of inventory, since August 10th, the work of throwing and storing cotton has been completed 90%, and all the pactions have been completed. The paction price has been rising continuously, and 600 thousand tons of state reserve cotton have been sold out. In order to meet the demand of textile enterprises for cotton use, according to the China Cotton Textile Industry Association September 26th, the relevant departments of the state decided to put 400 thousand tons of cotton reserves into operation. If the market pressure of new cotton is effectively alleviated, it will also slow down the uplink of cotton prices at the same time.

The international cotton price rose sharply in September. It has brushed the high point of 15 years, breaking through the 1 dollar important pass, and is mainly driven by the buying of investment fund.

From the perspective of holding positions, some investors made a profit at high position, which caused a certain pressure on the disk.

Domestic cotton is affected by the rise of US cotton and shows a strong bull market with a record high.

The sharp jump in September 20th has not only crossed the price range of 20000 yuan / ton, but also stimulated investors' confidence in cotton prices.

In September 21st and 27, Zheng cotton double opened high jump, crossed 21000 yuan / ton line, broke through the 22000 yuan / ton price barrier, volume expanded to nearly 1 million 900 thousand hands, investors enthusiasm.

However, the technical gap brought by the high jump to the disk can not be ignored. It is far from the support of the average system, and there will be demand for callbacks in the future.