The Upward Pressure Is Still &Nbsp; October Is Difficult.

September prices are in the Mid Autumn Festival and national day.

On the whole, the A share market in the three quarter showed a relatively large rebound during the year. In July, under the expected change of the policy, the traditional cycle industry rebounded with the theme of "valuation recovery". In 8 and September, the stock index focused on thematic stocks. Although the index performance was much lower than that in July, the activity level of stocks was much higher than that in July.

Looking forward to October, the current market does not really form a significant increase in support. First, the path and feasibility of economic pformation is still unclear. Second, far from the next year, the rise in enterprise costs is a relatively definite event, and there is a downward trend in corporate earnings expectations. Third, before the new investment chain is formed, the trend of real estate will almost affect the overall situation. However, the real estate policy and actual direction still need to be clear about the volume and price data in October. Fourth, liquidity is still deteriorating.

However, GF believes that the market is limited in space and there is a greater probability of a small rebound (2900 points).

From the characteristics of the market, after the long holiday, the two cities of Shanghai and Shenzhen will usher in the disclosure period of the three quarterly report.

As of September 30th, 746 listed companies have disclosed three quarterly earnings forecasts.

Among them, the "Preview" company, whose performance increased, losses or surpluses increased to 565, accounting for 76% of the number of companies announced by the three quarterly bulletin.

From the present point of view, most of the three quarter performance continues to grow, and the medium term eye-catching industries will not grow in the three quarter.

At the same time, the overall safety margin of the market is relatively high, so the stock index still has room for upward valuation.

But considering the uncertainty of regulation policy, the market failed to form a consistent expectation. The weakness of heavyweight will also hinder market rebound, and the structural hotspot is expected to continue.

Investment strategy can be divided into two stages. Before the holiday, attention should still be paid to preventing the risk of individual callbacks and paying attention to structural trading opportunities.

After the festival, assets can be flexibly allocated according to policy trends and market changes, which can continue the thinking of industry configuration in September and focus on core industries.

It is recommended to match commercial retail and big electronic information, low utilities, real estate, and other industries.

It is suggested that commercial retail, electronic information, food and beverage, catering and tourism, household appliances, pportation equipment, machinery and equipment, building materials and other industries should be allocated in priority.