Review And Outlook Of PET Staple Market In September
In September, the market price of polyester staple fiber in China increased steadily and hit a new high in the year.
Analysis of the reasons, upstream raw materials such as PTA, MEG and other markets have become strong.
Psf
A major cost driver for market price increases; in addition, a booming market in the downstream yarn market, driven by the popularity of the downstream market, has stimulated its enthusiasm for the purchase of PET staple fibers, and the demand for polyester staple fiber has been increasing.
In addition to its impact on the upstream and downstream markets, cotton prices are also an important factor driving the sharp increase in the polyester staple market in September.
Most of the manufacturers of polyester staple fiber are supported by the continuous upward trend of market turnover.
Order
It has been discharged until October.
At present, PetroChina polyester staple October 2010 contract pre payment quote is announced: 1.4D direct spun polyester staple fiber reported 12200 yuan / ton.
Let's look at the whole market trend of polyester staple market in September.
I. mainstream
Market quotation
Analysis
1.1 East China
In September, the market of polyester staple fiber in East China increased strongly, and the market price exceeded twelve thousand yuan mark.
Up to the end of September, the price of the 1.4D*38mm direct spinning polyester staple market has shifted sharply. The price of the mainstream factory quoted price has been concentrated between 12200-12400 yuan / ton, compared with the August market price, the price has risen by 2550 yuan / ton. The mainstream market has also discussed the trend of the price rising sharply, up 2350 yuan / ton from last month to 12000 yuan / ton.
In the upstream raw materials PTA and MEG market stability and strong trend of cost support, and downstream yarn market continues to rise, the East China polyester staple fiber market continued to rise; at the same time, with the tight supply of PET staple fiber, the market inquiry atmosphere is better, the downstream yarn manufacturers have more positive intentions to receive goods, and the overall volume of pactions has increased significantly; the mainstream factory installations in the market are running smoothly, and orders have been mostly discharged to October.
1.2 Southern China area
In September, the market of polyester staple fiber in Southern China was mainly driven by a sharp rise in market prices.
This month, the market price of PET staple fiber manufacturers has been substantially raised. Among them, the mainstream cash offer price of 1.4D*38mm direct spinning polyester staple fiber factory is concentrated between 12200-12500 yuan / ton, compared with the market in August, the price rose by 2600 yuan / ton.
This month, the market atmosphere of polyester staple fiber in Southern China continued to improve, the purchasing intention of downstream market was more positive, the production of polyester staple fiber plant was stable, while spot stock remained low, and the overall production and sales situation of polyester staple fiber market in Southern China was relatively ideal.
1.3 North China
The market of polyester staple fiber in North China in September also showed a large upward trend.
The market price center of gravity moved up substantially. By the end of the September, the price of the mainstream cash offer of 1.4D*38mm direct spinning polyester staple fiber increased to 12400-12500 yuan / ton, which was 2700 yuan / ton compared with the mainstream offer in August.
Judging from the overall market situation, the market of polyester staple fiber in North China is better this month. The downstream textile enterprises and market traders have a very high enquiry atmosphere, and the market supply and demand are tight.
1.4 southwest {page_break}
In September, the market of polyester staple fiber in Southwest China continued to rise steadily, and its market price rose sharply.
By the end of the September, the mainstream of 1.4D*38mm direct spinning polyester staple fiber market had been priced at 12300-12400 yuan / ton, compared with the price level in July, which rose by 2600 yuan / ton.
This month, the market of polyester staple fiber in Southwest China continued to rise, the market atmosphere was better, the downstream yarn market had stronger intention to receive goods, manufacturers sold at a low price, mostly finished orders, polyester staple manufacturers had stable operation and tight market supply, and overall shipments were greatly improved compared with last month.
Two. Upstream raw material market dynamics
Judging from the market of upstream raw materials, the price of international crude oil futures continued to shake up in September.
Although crude oil futures still have a certain gap compared with the highest level in early August, at present, the support of the US $75 is relatively obvious. The market is not expecting a big drop in crude oil prices. The fluctuation range of international oil prices this month is also over 70 dollars / barrel.
As of the end of September, the New York Mercantile Exchange delivered light crude oil futures in November at $79.97 a barrel, while the London market Brent crude oil futures in Beihai closed at $82.31 a barrel.
In September, the PX market of raw materials showed a sharp rise in the market, of which Asian PX's market price rose by 65 US dollars / ton this month to FOB Korea 1032 US dollars / ton, CFR Japan 1047 US dollars / ton; and the US PX market price this month also rose 95 US dollars / ton to FOB US dollar 1035 US dollars / ton; the European PX market price rose 95 US dollars / ton in this month to FOB Rotterdam 1065 US dollars / ton.
In terms of contract goods, Sinopec's PX settlement price in September was 7900 yuan / ton, up 450 yuan from last month's settlement, while the listing price in October was 8200 yuan / ton, up 600 yuan / ton from last month's listing price.
ExxonMobil, Nippon Oil and Shexing industries in October were 1080 yuan / ton and 130 US dollars higher than the September settlement price.
In September, the PTA spot market of upstream raw materials continued to be favorable, with a sharp upward trend.
The dollar weakened sharply, the stock market strengthened, crude oil and other commodity prices rose sharply, the easing of domestic monetary policy and the enhancement of investment confidence were all favorable factors to enhance the market situation of PTA.
By the end of September, the spot price of PTA rose sharply by 600 yuan / ton to 7900 yuan / ton, and the price of the internal market was about to stand at 8000 yuan / ton. On the outside market, the market negotiation price of the Taiwan market rose 60 US dollars / ton to 955 US dollars / ton, and the market negotiation price of Korean products rose 55 US dollars / ton to 940 US dollars / ton in the same month.
At the same time, the MEG market of upstream raw materials in September also dominated by rising trend.
Three, analysis of the market of polyester
From the perspective of polyester market, Sinopec October polyester chip contract offer: half light section 10200 yuan / ton, glossy slice 10200 yuan / ton, industrial yarn slicing 10200 yuan / ton, total extinction 11000 yuan / ton.
In September, the overall market of polyester market was dominated by a substantial upward trend, and raw material prices of polyester market rebounded strongly.
The spot price of polyester chip market has been stronger this month. The price of semi glossy polyester chips in Jiangsu and Zhejiang market has risen by 1100 yuan / ton to 10200 yuan / ton (acceptance) this month. The focus of the market has also climbed to 10000-10050 yuan / ton (cash); the focus of glossy chips has also continued to rise to 9700-9800 yuan / ton (cash level); and the market price of polyester bottles has been rising synchronously, and this month has also risen 500 yuan / ton to 10100 yuan / ton.
Since September, the market of polyester filament has been steadily increasing. The price of mainstream varieties has moved up sharply and the volume and price have risen.
By the end of this month, the market price of polyester has increased by more than 1000 yuan per ton during the month.
Shengze polyester market, of which DTY 75D/72F June acceptance price of 17800 yuan / ton, POY 150D/144F June acceptance price of 11900 yuan / ton; FDY 50D/72F June acceptance price of 18100-18200 yuan / ton, FDY 66D/24F June acceptance price of 16600 yuan / ton.
Xiaoshan polyester market, of which DTY 150D/48F low elastic market acceptance price of 13600 yuan / ton, DTY 100D/36F low elastic market acceptance price of 15100 yuan / ton FDY 66D/24F market acceptance price of 16000 yuan / ton, POY 75D/72F market acceptance price of 14400 yuan / ton.
Taicang polyester market, of which FDY 50D/24F market quotation is 17350 yuan / ton, POY 75D/72F market quotation is 14200 yuan / ton.
Four, downstream yarn market dynamics
Judging from the market situation of the downstream yarn, its market is booming, and the market quotation is greatly improved.
Judging from the market situation of pure polyester yarn, the pure polyester yarn Market in September was tight due to tight supply. A slight change in the previous period accelerated the pace of the rise. The prices of the products in the market rose sharply. The price of the mainstream 32S market of the pure polyester yarn rose sharply to 18500 yuan / ton, and the market price of the 45S pure polyester yarn was also raised to about 19500 yuan / ton. The overall shipping market was ideal, while the pure polyester yarn 32S and 45S market had a relatively good turnover.
Judging from the market situation of polyester cotton yarn, the market of polyester cotton yarn also rose steadily in September, and the market price of various specifications and products also rose sharply. Among them, the market price of polyester cotton yarn 65/35 32S was also raised to a high price of 24500 yuan / ton.
Therefore, the yarn market is expected to continue to rise in the short term.
Five, the crazy rise of cotton prices brings pull.
In addition, the crazy rise in cotton prices in September is also an important factor in promoting the sharp increase in the polyester staple market this month.
As we all know, most of the polyester staple fiber is used to replace cotton production yarn. Therefore, there is a certain correlation between the two. There are market professionals in the past three years of cotton and polyester staple fiber price statistics and correlation analysis, the correlation between the two reached as high as 0.865.
Judging from the normal price difference, the price of the 328 grade cotton should be 2000-3000 yuan / ton higher than that of the polyester staple fiber at the same time. The change of the price of cotton and polyester staple fiber will directly affect the change of the price difference and the price ratio, and then affect the demand of cotton or polyester staple fiber, and ultimately lead to the price of cotton and polyester staple fiber returning to a relatively reasonable price difference or price range.
Judging from the current trend of the domestic cotton market, the cotton market has been booming recently. The purchase price of seed cotton has continued to rise. The price of throwing and storing has continued to rise, and the 328 level paction price of dumping and storage is breaking through the 20 thousand mark.
Judging from the current price difference, the two are obviously in an unreasonable range. Under such a price gap, the pulling effect of the recent sharp rise in the market price of polyester staple fiber is obviously very sufficient.
Six. Forecast and outlook for the future market
Judging from the current domestic market of polyester staple fiber, upstream raw materials, the recent international crude oil futures prices rebounded, with a support of 75 US dollars / barrel, and the upstream raw material PTA and MEG market are also expected to continue to rise, supporting the market of polyester staple fiber on the cost side.
From the perspective of market supply and demand, the demand for polyester staple fiber is still good, the downstream yarn market is booming, production is booming, and procurement is also more active, and the spot resources of polyester short and short market are still tight, and the manufacturers' orders are mostly discharged to the end of October.
Although the price of polyester staple fiber has been at a high level, driven by the strong support of market supply and demand as well as the substantial increase in cotton prices, it is expected that the market of polyester staple will still be higher in the future market.
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