Cotton Fatigue Shows Caution Against Risk Of Fall

After a month's rapid rise, Zheng cotton Recent trends are showing signs of weakness in the face of record prices. market The mentality of the parties has been quite fragile, and there has been an extreme case of the limit after the limit. Combined with the key time window, the cotton price trend in the later stage must be differentiated from that in the early stage.

　　 American cotton Back to the 100 cents pass.

During the national day, the trend of the US cotton trend was broken, and it fell sharply on Monday. Then several trading days adjusted and picked up. From the US cotton K-line chart, we can see that the uplink of US cotton has been far behind that of the early stage. Two successive lines have already outlined the embryonic form of the first form. Although the US cotton has yet to be reversed, the main rally stage may have passed. CFTC's recent position report shows that the net position of non commercial positions has dropped for two consecutive weeks. For the early and vigorous market, the role of speculative capital is obvious. The low tide of funds must arouse enough vigilance.

The US cotton export weekly released by USDA in September 30th showed that the net volume of US cotton exports in September 30th was 176 thousand and 900 tons, the highest in the year, up 54% from the previous week, significantly higher than the average value of the previous four weeks. The strong export is the most important factor to promote the upland of US cotton in the early stage. In the less than two months of the new cotton year, the US cotton has sold more than half, and the good sales prospects have increased the optimistic expectation of the market.

The good sale of American cotton mainly stems from two factors: first, the delayed listing of cotton in China. Owing to the lack of illumination during the seeding period, the domestic cotton is generally more than half a month late this year, coupled with the farmers' reluctance to sell, resulting in the delayed listing of cotton this year. Two, India has repeatedly postponed the export of cotton. India textile department recently announced that it will allow exports of cotton from November 1st, which is a month later than the previous commitments. India and China are the top two cotton producers in the world. Although the supply delay does not affect the overall supply and demand situation, it causes short supply of international cotton sources in the short run, and therefore the United States cotton is the only major source of cotton supply, which has made the cotton market in early stage maintain a good sales situation. But these two factors that push us cotton exports will probably change in the later stage. After entering October, domestic cotton will enter the intensive listing period, and the supply and demand tension is expected to be reversed. India has made clear that cotton exports will be allowed after November 1st, which will provide 1 million tons of supply for the international cotton market. There will be more choices in the market. The export situation of the US cotton is expected to return to normal orbit.

At present, the US cotton is back to the $100 mark. Under the support of good sales data, the short term support of cotton is still very strong. However, the objective supply situation is clear. The vacuum period of the international cotton supply will pass in the past, and the sales of the US cotton will surely be tested. USDA is about to announce the supply and demand report in October. The market generally believes that this report is biased, and whether the US cotton can take advantage of its 100 cents is another "touchstone" to test its upward momentum.

Farmers are reluctant to sell, and seed cotton purchasing prices remain high.

Cotton has been picked up in most parts of the country. Although the price of seed cotton has been around 5 yuan per Jin, it is still hard to get cotton, and farmers generally have high expectations. According to the experience of the author's visit, farmers now generally expect prices to rise, and they are not eager to rush out. They tend to sell cotton with poor quality and keep up with better quality. Small and medium traders are afraid of high spirits and are afraid to stay in cotton for a long time. They are limited to financial pressure and risk considerations. Some small cotton traders even get rid of the same day. Large scale distributors have strong ability to undertake, and some enterprises send people directly to the countryside to rush to collect. However, according to the purchasing staff, the quality and quantity of cotton received are difficult to guarantee at present, and the water is also higher than in previous years, even though it is still difficult to get cotton.

According to the current purchase price of seed cotton, the purchase cost of lint has risen to about 22500 yuan / ton, which will involve cotton enterprises to a very awkward situation. Cotton consumption is a typical seasonal acquisition and year-round consumption characteristics, that is, during the large number of cotton market listing, the acquisition and hoarding will be sold in batches in the whole year. Under this trade mode, the low and high cotton prices foreshadowed the cotton merchants' frequent profits. In the face of the current record cotton prices, if the latter cotton prices can not be maintained at a high level for a long time, the risk faced by cotton merchants is obvious.

At present, cotton is in an extreme situation. Cotton picking has been picking up in many parts of the world. However, the phenomenon of hoarding and selling has delayed the listing of the cotton lint again, and the circulation links are full of cotton. The real consumption link is very scarce. The market is no longer a simple problem of supply and demand matching. At present, the price of the cotton mill in the whole industrial chain is more smoothly, and the cotton mill can transfer the cost of cotton to the lower reaches, but the cloth and clothing enterprises have hardly accepted the current price. The purchase is all satisfied with the order, and stockpiling is not active.

The current price of cotton is reasonable. The author has two views: first, we need to pay attention to the undertaking capacity of the cotton mill. As long as there is no problem in the direct consumption of cotton, there is no serious price distortion. Two, in the long run, reasonable cotton prices need to have an appropriate price ratio with other crops, and the replacement of agricultural products will eventually eliminate short price gullies, and the current rise of cotton is obviously too big.

conclusion

The cotton market is now facing important time windows. The evolution of cotton prices depends on the game of all sides. At present, the cotton market is like a huge reservoir. Everything is calm before opening the gap. The funds that follow up may still raise the water level. But the price of cotton will only rise and fall. It will only be a myth. The market has staged a crazy slump after many times, so we must remain vigilant.