Zhejiang Merchants Securities Strategy In The Four Quarter: Focus On The Allocation Of Consumer Anti Cyclical Stocks

1. three quarter A share market Serious structural differentiation in history

2. fourth quarter A shares will be adjusted to cope with many uncertainties.

3. increasing the allocation of growth stocks is a choice to deal with cyclical and structural adjustment. Value stocks need to wait for market timing.

Main points of investment:

In the three quarter, the A share market split sharply, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 10.73%, while the banks and other heavyweights fell to or hit a new low in the year. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and the financial sector turnover reached a new low. The overall valuation level of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 is much lower than the historical average, close to the bottom of the historical valuation, and lower than the valuation level of H-shares.

The SME board index has reached a record high, and its valuation is close to the historical high point. The strategic emerging industries represented by new energy, biological breeding and new materials have increased four times the overall market growth, and the capital market is ahead of schedule. The 12th Five-Year "Planning and the trend of China's economic restructuring.

In the two quarter, the overall earnings per share hit a new high, but the growth of the company's annulus rate declined. In the second half of the year, it was affected by many factors such as real estate regulation, energy saving and consumption reduction, bank provision and export growth decline. A share earnings growth was difficult to reach the first half of the year. The two quarter may become an inflection point for the growth of the company's performance. We predict that the net profit growth of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 will be 25%.

The fourth quarter of the gem and small and medium-sized panels will usher in the lifting of the ban peak, small plates and gem ban shares 4 billion 900 million shares, lifting the market value of 228 billion 700 million yuan, the lifting of restrictions on the sale of shares, lifting the ban shares will have a certain impact on the two market, and drag on the pricing of small and medium-sized shares. By the end of December 2010, the market share of A shares will reach 79%, and the overall valuation level of A shares will be suppressed.

The third quarter of the economic slowdown is real estate regulation, energy saving and economic restructuring, the external economic impact of the export of exogenous economic slowdown. With the government's policy being stopped and the peripheral economic situation not deteriorating, the second stage of economic downturn is flat, and is still continuing.

In the fourth quarter, the number of votes due to the central bank is smaller, the pressure of currency withdrawal is reduced, and the operation of the central bank's open market will become normal. At present, liquidity is at the bottom stage. The stock market will face many uncertainties. The A share market will adjust to deal with the uncertainty of macroeconomic policy and economy. The deepening of the real estate control policy will continue to have an impact on the A share market. Under extreme circumstances, the Shanghai composite index does not exclude the possibility of 2319 low points.

The stock market rate of banking, petroleum, petrochemical, coal and other industries is at the bottom of history. The time has come for value, but we need to wait for market timing. Economic spanformation will be accompanied by the decline of economic growth. The choice of growth stocks will help to avoid the risk of economic downturn. Fourth quarter strategic emerging industries, though there are callbacks. Possibility From the long-term strategy of the government, it will still be the main line of the market. In addition, anti cyclical consumer stocks can be used as the focus of configuration.