Strong Zheng Cotton Runs All The Way To New Heights.

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We believe that supply and demand is the core element of cotton prices.

Dumping and expanding import quotas on the surface can not restrain the rise of cotton prices, but the autumn Canton Fair in October has a greater impact on textile enterprises' new annual orders.

If the downstream price is not acceptable, the trend of cotton prices will be reversed.

The rapid rise of domestic cotton prices in the current round is supported by fundamental factors and interwoven with many factors in the market.

First, production and disaster weather caused tight supply.

Because of the low cotton prices at the end of 2009, the farmers' mood for cotton planting was not high. According to the data, the cotton planting area in 2010 was 4 million 714 thousand hectares, which was reduced by 466 thousand hectares compared with the 5 million 180 thousand hectares of planting area in 2009.

Since the beginning of this year, more and more abnormal weather has been observed in China. The continuous increase of low temperature weather has affected the production of cotton. Meanwhile, rainy weather in 7 and August has also affected cotton harvest.

Under the dual function of reducing production and disaster weather, the supply of cotton in China has become tense this year.

Two, the domestic cotton planting willingness will lead to an increase in the number of imports.

According to the consumption structure of cotton in China, about 75% of the cotton needed for consumption in China is provided by domestic production.

According to the latest data from the US Department of agriculture on cotton production and consumption in China, cotton production and consumption in 2010/11 are basically the same as last year.

However, according to the import data of cotton, the import of cotton in China was 2 million 120 thousand tons in 2008. From 2010 to August, China's imports had reached 1 million 950 thousand tons, reflecting the decrease in domestic cotton stocks, and the demand remained strong, which provided support for the rise in cotton prices.

Three, rising production costs uplift cotton prices at the bottom.

Under the background of mild inflation, labor production data represented by agricultural fertilizers, pesticides and farm implements began to rise from the second half of 2009. The price index of agricultural means of production has risen by more than 11% from the low point of September in 2009 to now.

Four, stable domestic demand and strong demand for foreign demand.

Since entering the consumer market in 2010, under the guidance of the government's policy of "adjusting structure and promoting consumption", the consumption of textile and clothing has basically maintained an increase of about 20% over the same month, basically unchanged from 2009.

The export situation of domestic textile enterprises improved significantly in 2010, and the growth of garment export volume rose 6 consecutive months.

Five, the participation of speculative capital magnified the fluctuation of prices.

Under the expectation of real estate regulation policy and stock market turbulence, asset bubbles caused by excess liquidity have also been gradually pferred to the agricultural product market.

In this wave of cotton prices rising, the Zhengzhou Cotton Exchange's zhengmian position contract increased from 298 thousand in the end of August to 525 thousand at the end of September.

The sharp rise in the price of cotton in the current round is the result of capital push supported by certain fundamental factors.

In the 10 days before the listing of new cotton concentrates, the cotton prices in the future market are hard to fall.

From the market supply and demand, speculative capital operation and technical point of view, the domestic cotton period price has created a historical high point, and the market bullish confidence is not diminished. It is expected that the spot price of 3 level cotton is expected to break through 25000 yuan / ton.

However, risks and opportunities coexist.

As interest rate increases are expected to be stronger and stronger, the downward trend of the cost of cotton enterprises will increase, the capacity to break through the upper limit, the elimination of some small and medium cotton mills, and the situation of RMB exchange rate and export will turn. The cotton enterprises should be cautious of risks and prevent the callbacks from reaching the top of cotton prices.