Crazy Cotton'S "Butterfly Effect"

After speculation, stir frying with garlic and stir fried ginger, investors began to aim at tenderness.

In October 11th, China's cotton price B index closed at 25390 yuan / ton, which is the highest price in 1999 over 10 years.

Cotton farmers:

Cotton watching

Unwilling to sell easily

Chen Wenyou, an agricultural technician at the garden village of Luo Bu Town, Wucheng, is 55 years old. Yesterday, he told the reporter with a smile: "the cotton that has been planted for more than 30 years is the best this year."

Chen Wenyou has about three mu of cotton in his family. He gave the reporter an account.

Last year, the output per mu was about 400 kilograms, and the seed cotton purchase price was the highest price of 380 yuan per 50 kilograms. Because of weather reasons this year, the output was reduced by 300 kilos per mu, and the purchase price is now 560 yuan per 50 kilograms, and the income is at least 1000 yuan higher than that of last year.

The cotton price of 560 yuan per 50 kilograms is nearly double that of last year.

"Cotton costs 5 yuan a day, 50 yuan a day, and I spend more than ten yuan a day in my home."

About 600 kilograms of cotton, has Chen Wen sold one or two?

According to past practice, he will go to Lanxi, Jinhua and other places to ask the market price before deciding whether to release or when to release.

This year's market is good. According to his years of experience, cotton prices will go up and new year's Day is high.

More than 30 years ago, the purchase price of seed cotton was 150 yuan per 50 kilograms. When the market was good in 1998~1999, it rose from 380 yuan per 50 kg to 380 yuan, which could rise for about half a month or so.

At present, the increase of 5 yuan per 50 kilograms per day is equivalent to the increase of one month at that time, which is really beyond comprehension. "

Although Chen Wen did not understand, he could make money, after all, it was a happy thing.

The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the the Yellow River River Basin and

According to the statistics of the Agriculture Department of our city, the cotton planting area of this year is 101 thousand mu, and the cotton planting area and total output account for 1/3 in the whole province. The province ranks first, and is the key cotton producing area in Zhejiang province.

Wucheng District Luo Bu, Yang Bu, Tang Xi, Jiang Tang and Lanxi are the main cotton producing areas in our city, with an area of 42 thousand mu.

Taking Luo Bu as an example, cotton and sugar cane are their main industries. Sandy soil is especially suitable for cotton growth, and almost every household grows cotton.

A town cadre said that cotton prices increased and cotton farmers' income increased this year. The output value of cotton fields with good yield was over 3300 yuan, a double increase over the previous two years.

Most of the cotton farmers, like Chen Wen, are watching cotton and hoping to sell a better price.

Cotton Trader: profit is thin, sigh, bitter, want to change to talk about cotton, rob Town Garden Village branch secretary, Jinxi agricultural and sideline products trading Co., Ltd. chairman Chen Zhisong is not so happy as Chen Wenyou.

He sighed to reporters: "the profit of cotton is getting thinner and thinner, and business is hard to do. After that, the market will be bullish again, so we must consider changing."

Chen Zhisong is one of the top cotton buyers in the country.

He said that when he first entered the cotton industry in 1994, the market was in short supply and the business was very good. 50 kilograms of lint can earn at least 60~80 yuan, and now he earns five or six yuan.

"Now the purchase price is much higher than the market price, and the manufacturers can hardly accept it, almost no longer order."

Chen Zhisong has about 400 tons of lint, and is on the market at a time, selling at a price of about 23 thousand yuan per ton, which can make a profit for the manufacturer at a price of 17 thousand ~1.8 yuan per ton, so that cotton can not be sold.

In the past few years, Chen Zhisong, Shaoxing, Jinhua, Lanxi and other manufacturers in Jiangxi and our province, which had business dealings with Mr. Chen Zhisong, were almost in a "closed down" state.

Chen Zhisong could not borrow money in Jinhua, and had to go to Jiangxi and sell "200 tons of lint" in the way of "mortgage loan".

"For Southern cotton, the quality of Jinhua cotton is the best.

We are located in the Jinqu basin, with large temperature difference in the morning and evening, and adequate sunshine. The cotton produced in this area is of high whiteness, fiber length, elasticity and toughness than Jiangxi, Anhui and other places.

Cotton is soaring and prices are out of order. In Chen Zhisong's view, it is caused by human speculation.

A few of his friends from Wenzhou, who entered cotton shopping season, went to Xinjiang to fry cotton. Some people had 100 thousand acres of cotton in one breath.

At present, cotton paction price has reached 25 thousand yuan / ton, an increase of nearly 80% over last year, reaching a new high in 11 years.

In September alone, the paction price of cotton rose from about 18 thousand yuan per ton at the beginning of the month to about 25 thousand yuan, which has soared nearly 40%.

Cotton quotes at a maximum price of more than 27 thousand yuan per ton.

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Faced with the rising cotton prices, cotton spinning enterprises are worried. Many enterprises are faced with cost increase, profit reduction, and lack of funds.

Some manufacturers spend more time on clothing materials, and use different raw materials such as chemical fiber, viscose fiber and polyester fiber to produce garments, so as to reduce the cost.

There are also a number of enterprises in the blending process to add a higher proportion of polyester to reduce the demand for cotton, or to develop new materials to find alternatives, and try to reduce dependence on cotton.

Shopping malls: rational consumption does not have to panic, crazy cotton triggering the "Butterfly Effect", and the most closely linked with consumers is shopping malls.

Yesterday afternoon, reporters found that the price of cotton goods such as underwear and cotton socks generally increased by 20%.

Relevant data show that in August this year, the average selling price of ONLY brand was 269 yuan / piece, up 49.6% compared to the same period last year; the average selling price of VERO MODA was 336 yuan / piece, up 55.9% compared to the same period last year.

The average selling prices of other brands have also risen to varying degrees, especially for the main cotton brands.

In the face of high cotton prices, shopping centres always pay attention to market trends and make timely countermeasures.

Some consumers complain that the price of clothing is rising year by year. Su Zhongxi, assistant general manager of Jinhua's Yintai department, said that influenced by various factors, clothing prices are the trend of the times.

The mall will supplement the low cost manufacturers as far as possible to meet the needs of different consumers.

At the same time, do more promotional activities, let customers.

It should be reminded that consumers should be rational shopping, not blindly pursue fashion, choose practical and wearable clothing styles, and do not panic too.

Expert:

When cotton growers go out

Let's go.

Bao Lisheng, a senior agronomist and chief cotton expert of the city special station, thinks that "cotton market is like the stock market", and the market volatility is not easy to predict and the risk is great.

According to his analysis, there are many reasons for the rise in cotton prices:

First, the global cotton inventory consumption ratio continues to decline, the demand is strong and stock tension leads to the rise of international cotton prices.

In 2010/2011, global cotton production and consumption are projected to be around 25 million 100 thousand tons. Final inventory is expected to remain at 9 million 100 thousand tons.

Second, Zheng cotton futures price support.

In October 12th, the closing price of zhengmian 1011 contract reached 25500 yuan / ton, all higher than cotton spot price, the highest level in history.

Third, the sustained recovery of the global economy will continue to promote the growth of cotton consumption. China's cotton imports will increase more than last year. It is estimated that China's import volume is 3 million 100 thousand tons this year, an increase of 29% over the same period, which is the main driving force for global growth. China's demand factors will pull cotton prices up.

Fourth, the cost of cotton production is forced.

According to investigation and statistics, in 2008 and 2009, the cost of cotton production (including labor input) in our city was 1965 yuan / mu, 2046 yuan / mu, and the cost per seed seed cotton was 7.84 yuan and 8.16 yuan per kilogram according to the 100.2 kg of cotton seed output per mu in 2009.

It can be seen that the price of seed cotton is below 8 yuan / kg, and cotton growers will not be profitable, seriously affecting the enthusiasm of cotton planting.

Fifthly, the national cotton reserves are insufficient.

After more than a year of selling, the state reserve cotton has been less than 500 thousand tons, and the market regulation is limited.

Bao Lisheng believes that influenced by the international market, cotton prices have been on the low side for many years, and cotton growers are hardly profitable.

According to the statistics of the municipal agriculture department, the net income of cotton fields from 2006 to 2009 was negative, especially in 2008, which was affected by the international financial crisis. The export of textile enterprises was low, resulting in a decrease in cotton demand and a low price. The average purchase price per kilogram of seed cotton was only 5.45 yuan. If the labor cost was calculated, each acre of cotton would lose 484 yuan.

For many years, low efficiency of seed cotton has directly affected cotton growers' planting enthusiasm.

Nationwide, cotton has been cut for three consecutive years.

After the financial crisis, cotton demand increased sharply, and there was a gap between supply and demand of cotton, prompting cotton prices to return quickly or even irrational.

In addition, this year cotton has been exposed to low temperature and rainy weather during sowing. The whole growth period has been postponed and the growth is not as good as usual. The cotton yield per unit of cotton is expected to decrease by about 5% over the previous year.

Judging from the current situation, the rise in the purchase price of new cotton before the Mid Autumn Festival is a process of reasonable price return, and the surge after the Mid Autumn Festival is somewhat irrational.

This unusual situation is caused by the excessive enlargement of supply and demand gap and the speculation of idle funds.

As the price of cotton market rises all the time, cotton farmers are reluctant to sell wait-and-see sentiment.

Because of the reduction in cotton production this year, cotton growers want to sell the highest price, but it is difficult to do this under market conditions.

As cotton purchasing prices rise, many cotton farmers are planning to expand their cotton planting area next year.

This is also not advisable. For farmers who are relatively good at planting cotton technology and suitable for planting cotton land, they can be suitable for a variety of purposes. Other farmers should not blindly follow suit.

Bao Lisheng suggested: cotton growers should not sell, and choose reasonable high prices to sell cotton stored at home in time.

Such a high price is unlikely to last for a long time.

It is just the cotton planting season in Australia, Africa and other countries in the southern hemisphere. They have been informed that the increase in international cotton prices has increased their planting area.

In addition, after the Spring Festival, we can predict the planting area of cotton, which is not conducive to the continuous rise of cotton prices.