The Shadow Of "Exchange Rate War" Is Difficult To Eliminate &Nbsp; &Nbsp; There Is Still Suspicion In The Road To Recovery Of Foreign Trade.

In China foreign trade Out of the trough and into the critical period of recovery, the Canton Fair as a "weathervane" and "barometer" of foreign trade is particularly attracting attention. At the 108th Canton Fair, which opened on the 15 th, no matter the rising trend of "exchange rate war" or the rising pressure of cost, it is obvious that China's foreign trade recovery is not smooth.

Many experts and scholars from the business community said that although the overall situation was better than expected at the beginning of the year, the surface prosperity did not alleviate China. enterprise There are still many variables for the recovery of foreign trade.

　　 The recovery of foreign trade is better than expected.

As the largest, longest lasting and best traded exhibition in China, the information delivered at the Canton Fair has always been regarded as an important basis for judging the trend of China's foreign trade. On the opening day of the 15 day, exhibitors and overseas buyers from home and abroad quickly formed a rolling crowd. Almost half a hour after the opening of the pavilion, the booth of the major enterprises was crowded and heated. The overall atmosphere of foreign trade shows signs of further warming. "Compared with last year, compared with last year, compared with the previous financial crisis, this year's foreign trade situation is still very positive." Xiao Youyuan, general manager of Zhuhai GREE electric Limited by Share Ltd overseas sales company, said that the sales volume of the well-known air conditioning enterprise increased by 115% over the same period last year and sales increased by 125%.

The overall stable trade situation has also been verified by exhibitors and purchasers. Liu Jianjun, a spokesman for the general assembly, said that the trend of world economic recovery has not changed, either from the perspective of Chinese exhibitors or from the wishes of overseas purchasers. The number of merchants and the total turnover of the fair are expected to be at least flat with the 107th session held in April this year. "The total number of applications for this fair has exceeded 91 thousand, far exceeding the number of 57136 booths that we can finally provide. This shows that China's foreign trade enterprises have more confidence in the export market. In addition, the results of the General Assembly's global investment also show that most of the market participants still have strong desire to participate in the market except for some parts of Europe and America. He said.

　　 " exchange rate The "shadow of war" is difficult to eliminate.

However, this Canton Fair is not the sunshine, and many negative factors, including the "exchange rate war", are putting a strong shadow on this session and the future trend of China's foreign trade. At the meeting, Chong Quan, deputy representative of the international trade negotiations of the Ministry of Commerce, listed at least five difficulties, including slower growth in external demand, more intense competition in the international market, severe trade frictions, increased pressure on business operations, and very difficult task of "structural adjustment". "The pressure on enterprises is increasing, the cost of raw materials, labor and freight is increasing. Many enterprises have not dare to accept, the expansion of export internal power is insufficient, and the uncertainty of RMB appreciation in the future will affect our business expansion." He said.

There is no doubt that RMB exchange rate pressure is one of the concerns of most enterprises. The United States will decide whether China will reduce its exchange rate to protect its domestic industry, and formally label China as a currency manipulator. According to overseas opinion, the United States is more likely than ever to label China as a currency manipulator because its economic recovery is not as good as expected and the pressure on mid-term elections has increased. For this reason, Su Jing, deputy director of the Ministry of foreign trade of the Ministry of Commerce of the Guangzhou Trade Fair, said: "at present, the actual profit margins of many enterprises in China's foreign trade area are between 2% and 5%. At the same time, China is also at a critical moment to accelerate the transformation of the mode of economic development. If the RMB exchange rate fluctuates sharply in this process, it will not only be of no benefit to China itself, nor will the foreign investment environment in China and the world market be stable."

Another major external shock that China's foreign trade needs to overcome in the future is intensified international trade protectionism. In August of this year, China encountered 48 cases of trade remedy investigations from 17 countries and regions, and the total amount involved was 6 billion 480 million US dollars. "Although the number and amount of cases appear to be declining compared with last year, the complexity of the case and the difficulty of coping with it are increasing." Zhou Xiaoyan, director of the Ministry of Commerce's import and Export Fair Trade Bureau, said. {page_break}

　　 Foreign trade such as "sail against the current" Ministry of Commerce will investigate the "12th Five-Year plan" policy direction.

China's foreign trade is advancing in the shadow. A Chinese hardware exhibitor sighed that, compared with the previous years, foreign trade firms often feel "against the current boat". "They often pay more than before, but their results are worse than before." However, in the view of foreign trade personages, to eliminate the negative effects brought about by these "shadows" can not rely on short-term actions and simply rely on the moderating effect of policies.

"After the crisis, the world began a new round of international industrial adjustment and deepening, and the United States proposed an export doubling plan. Germany, France and Japan all put forward the industrial revitalization plan and economic growth strategy. If we do not accelerate the optimization of products, business entities, trade patterns and market structure, the future will only be at an unfavorable position in international competition." Wang Shouwen, director of the Ministry of foreign trade of the Ministry of Commerce.

This year is the last year of the 11th Five-Year plan, and the 12th Five-Year plan is being worked out. According to the information from relevant parties, the Ministry of Commerce will conduct a deep investigation at the Guangzhou Fair, aiming at understanding the development direction of foreign trade in the 12th Five-Year plan to understand the concept of enterprises and local governments and business associations.

Wang Shouwen said, looking forward to the future, China's foreign trade will launch a series of "innovation" practices to accelerate the transformation of development mode. These practices include cultivating a number of foreign trade bases with dominant brands based on free brands, attaching importance to and guiding online shopping, mail order, and third party electronic settlement. He said: "the society has already reached a consensus on accelerating the transformation of the mode of foreign trade development. The most urgent task is to solve the directional and path problems of where to turn, how to turn, and how to speed up, so as to seek new breakthroughs for deep-rooted problems that have plagued China's foreign trade development for a long time."