Analysis Of China'S Textile And Apparel Export Data In The First Three Quarters Of 2010

China's textile and garment exports began to stabilize and pick up in March, and fell slightly in August.

In the month of August, exports were 15 billion 690 million US dollars, down by 4.1%.

However, a slight rebound occurred in September, when exports amounted to about US $20 billion during the month, a rise of around 25%, an increase of nearly 20% over the same period last year.

China's clothing industry mainly takes the European Union, the United States and Japan as the main export markets, and has a slight increase in the US and sunrise.

In the 1~6 months of this year, China's textile exports amounted to US $5 billion 346 million, an increase of 30.92% over the same period last year, and exports of clothing amounted to US $14 billion 43 million, an increase of 14.42% over the same period last year.

In the month of June, the total export volume of textiles and clothing reached US $4 billion 573 million, an increase of 31.82%, an obvious increase.

Textile exports amounted to $956 million, an increase of 10.05% over the previous year, a decrease of 4.88% compared to the same period, and clothing exports of $3 billion 617 million, an increase of 24.64% over the previous year and a 46.81% increase over the same period.

According to the latest statistics from the European Union statistics bureau, in July 2010, the economic confidence index of the 27 European Union countries and 16 euro zone countries rose by 102.2 points and 101.3 points respectively, which was 1.9 points higher than that in June 2010 and 2.3 points respectively.

The economic recovery process of the European industrial sector is expected to continue in the coming months.

China's textile and clothing exports to the region continued to recover.

In June, the retail sales of clothing products in the United States increased by 5.91% over the same period last year, reversing the three consecutive month of decline in March, April and May. In May, the stock of clothing products decreased by 5.40% compared with the same period last year. The decline was narrowed for 4 consecutive months, and the willingness to replenishment was increasing.

Under this situation, China's textile and clothing exports to the US market have obviously recovered in the first half of this year.

In 2010 1~6, China's textile exports to the United States amounted to US $4 billion 795 million, an increase of 34.77% over the same period last year, and clothing exports amounted to US $10 billion 197 million, an increase of 25.73% over the same period last year.

In the month of June, the total export volume of textiles and clothing reached US $3 billion 446 million, an increase of 29.56% over the same period last year, and a 16.57% increase over the same period.

Among them, textile exports amounted to 997 million US dollars, an increase of 9.76% over the same period, an increase of 2.25% over the same period, and a 2 billion 449 million increase in clothing exports, an increase of 19.81% over the same period last year, a 23.62% increase in the ring.

Replenishment is a short-term behavior, and it lacks support from consumers' purchasing power. Therefore, the growth rate of textile and clothing exports to the US in the second half of this year is expected to slow down.

A group of beautiful figures and market status reflects that textile and garment exports are showing strong rebound.

With more orders and better business, it should be a good thing for an enterprise. Why should an enterprise be unhappy?

There are three reasons for this: the rising price of raw materials, the rising cost of labor and the expected pressure of RMB appreciation.

Professionals analyzed that the main reason for the export growth in the first quarter was "the rebound in the international market".

According to the research report released by the US Cotton Corp, beginning with the beginning of this year, with the recovery of European and American markets and the stabilization of consumer confidence, the demand for Chinese textile and clothing in the European and American markets has increased significantly, especially in the textile and garment retail market in the United States. From 1 to March, the textile and garment retail sales in the United States increased by 6% compared with the same period last year, and the sales of high-end brand clothing increased by 22%.

As a major importer of textile and clothing in the United States, China generally feels the warmth of this round of market recovery.

"At the same time feel the warmth of the market, enterprises are generally feeling the pressure."

The head of a textile company said that since the beginning of this year, the company has done a lot of recruitment for the completion of the order, the production line is running at full capacity, and it is difficult to catch up with the speed of customer orders.

In addition, in order to recruit workers, wages paid to workers rose by at least 20%. Meanwhile, raw materials such as cotton yarn and metal fittings are constantly rising, which has led to a substantial increase in the cost of production.

"The most important thing is the pressure of RMB appreciation, let us worry about the future market."

The responsible person said.

Tavia Yeung, general manager of Ningbo Dafeng clothing company's brand Coolpool, said in an interview with reporters that its company has been established for more than ten years, and has maintained steady development during the period, but exchange rate and other factors have led to its growth and expansion blocked.

In the first half of the year, the company raised the quoted price in the foreign trade business of Japan, which increased by 20% compared with usual.

Processing trade declined significantly

General trade exports accounted for more than 7, and processing trade exports decreased significantly.

By the end of August this year, China exported $75 billion 570 million in textile and apparel trade in general trade this year, down 8.6%, accounting for 72.1% of China's total textile and apparel exports over the same period. During the same period, processing trade exported 22 billion 360 million US dollars, down 19.3%, accounting for 21.3%.

The recovery of China's textile and garment exports is affected by the following factors:

First, the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar and the recent appreciation of the renminbi have had a certain impact on the export of textile and clothing.

According to the test results of the China Textile Import and Export Chamber of Commerce, the average profit margin of China's textile and garment enterprises is 3% to 5%, and some enterprises are even far below 3%.

At present, China's textile and garment enterprises mainly focus on small and medium enterprises. More than 95% of the enterprises are low-end OEM products, and the bargaining power with foreign manufacturers is very weak. The losses caused by exchange rate can not be digested by consultation with customers and improving supply chain management, and the possibility of raising prices is almost zero.

If the RMB appreciation rate is too large, it will cause serious blow to China's textile and clothing exports.

The two is the increase in trade barriers between countries.

According to the China Textile Import and Export Chamber of Commerce, the European Union is preparing to apply to the European Commission for anti-dumping investigations on combed wool, bedsheets and outdoor garments imported from China.

The European clothing and Textile Organization (EURATEX) is also preparing for the so-called "subsidy" issue of China's textile industry, which requires the EU government to lodge a complaint with WTO.

According to professional media, in 2010, the United States will continue to enact relevant laws and regulations around children's consumer goods.

Three, the fluctuation of clothing production cost affects sales volume.

The cost increase in textile industry, which began in late 2009, is the largest in recent years. China's cotton price index has risen from 13040 yuan per ton in September 2009 to 15200 yuan per ton in March 1st this year.

In addition, the rising cost of human resources has directly weakened the competitiveness of textile enterprises in terms of product prices, while domestic textile enterprises have limited their own capacity to reduce costs.

Because of the reduced supply of cotton in the market, the high purchasing cost and the low price of downstream yarns, textile enterprises are facing pressure on both sides, and the price of textile products in foreign markets is also difficult to rise correspondingly. The profit margins of textile enterprises are obviously squeezed.

Four, the cost advantages of the main competitors gradually increase.

Because of the rising cost of land and labor in China, the cost advantages of neighboring countries such as Vietnam and India have been reflected, and some clothing orders have begun to shift to the newly emerging textile industrial areas.

Data show that the cost of labor in Bangladesh is US $0.22 / hour, Kampuchea is US $0.33 / hour, Vietnam is US $0.38 per hour, India is US $0.51 / hour, and our country is 1.08 US dollars / hour 1, the labor cost advantage of China's textile and garment enterprises has weakened, and some European and American orders have been pferred to neighboring countries.

Exports grew by 19.49% in September.

It is worth noting that in the recent single month data released by the General Administration of Customs in September, China's textile and apparel exports in September amounted to $20 billion 16 million, an increase of 19.49% over the same period last year, of which, textile exports amounted to $6 billion 815 million, an increase of 20.19% compared with the same period last year, and clothing exports stood at 13 billion 201 million US dollars, up 19.13% over the same period last year.

Compared with the previous months, the growth rate has slowed down. The reasons are as follows:

In Europe and America, the effect of replenishment should be gradually reduced.

The European Union will draw up a fiscal tightening schedule to reduce the fiscal deficit. The euro area's retail sales in August decreased by 0.4%. In September, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index reached a new low in January. Although the US economic growth has stabilized, the recovery in the employment and credit market is slow, and there is a certain degree of inhibition on consumption demand to some extent.

Export price increases affect export volume.

Although the price of raw materials continued to rise in September, the price of domestic 328 grade cotton in September increased by 22 thousand and 600 yuan / ton, an increase of 75.49% over the same period last year, an increase of 25.99% compared to the same period, the price of polyester staple fiber increased by 10 thousand and 600 yuan / ton, an increase of 21.33% over the same period last year, a 10.44% increase in the annulus, the increase in wages caused by the recruitment difficulties of enterprises, the increase in trade frictions and the increasing pressure of RMB appreciation, which made the prices of export products increased. However, some enterprises with weaker bargaining power chose to break contracts and abandon orders under the pressure of rising costs, thus weakening the increase effect of export volume due to the increase of export prices.

In 2010, the textile and garment industry is still facing a series of uncertainties, and export growth is still hard to come back to a higher level. However, the domestic demand market will still play a stimulating role in the industry, and the adjustment of industrial structure and industrial upgrading will continue to bear fruit. The textile industry will continue to recover steadily under the condition that the international market environment remains basically stable.

It is estimated that the total export volume of textile and apparel in 2010 will increase by about 4%. The total industrial output value of Enterprises above Designated Size will increase by about 11% compared to the same period last year, and the total profit will increase by about 10% over the same period.

In September this year, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar maintained a trend of eight consecutive rises, which once fell below the 6.70 important point, and the 8 trading day refreshed the new high since 2005. Many agencies predict that the trend of RMB appreciation is expected to continue in the future.

The appreciation of RMB directly leads to the cost and quotation of China's textile and clothing. It also means that the low competitive advantage of our products in the international market is weakened, and the export will be restrained.

Some bargaining power enterprises can shift part of the appreciation pressure through the price increase, while the uncompetitive enterprises will be the first to be hit.

Previously, authoritative estimates indicated that the garment industry and other deep-processing products had more value of labor force and obvious comparative advantage, and their price was lower than 15% of the international similar products, so the bargaining power was stronger. However, the clothing industry's dependence on exports was 60%, and the clothing industry was the most heavily damaged due to export dependence, and the value of RMB appreciated by 1%. The overall damage degree of the garment industry was 6.18% of the industry profit rate. Therefore, it is generally expected that the export recovery of textile and garment industry will slow down in the fourth quarter of this year.