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The Negative Impact Of The Financial Crisis On Foreign Trade Has Basically Been Eliminated With The Advent Of Christmas.

2010/10/25 16:21:00 45

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Influenced by the Christmas effect in developed countries, especially in the United States, the fourth quarter has always been China's.

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China's exports will still maintain a favorable growth trend in the fourth quarter of this year.

China's foreign trade in the first three quarters of 2010

Economics

In the period of rapid growth, exports rose by 1 trillion and 134 billion 640 million US dollars, an increase of 34%, over 5.4% in the same period in 2008, and imports of US $1 trillion and 14 billion 40 million, an increase of 42.4%, over 12.7% in the same period in 2008.

The above facts show that the negative impact of the international financial crisis on China's external economy has basically been eliminated.

Since joining the world trade organization, China's share of global exports has increased by about 0.6 percentage points annually.

Although China's exports fell sharply in 2009, China's share of global exports rose further from 8.9% in 2008 to 9.7% as the decline was below the global level.

According to the World Trade Organization (WTO) statistics, the proportion of China's exports accounted for the first time in the first half of 2010 in the history of global exports exceeded 10%, reaching 10.1%, and the proportion of the whole year will be further improved.

From the perspective of trading partners, the economies of emerging economies and developing countries are generally affected.

financial crisis

The impact is small, the growth is relatively fast, accounting for 51% of China's export market, which is 1 percentage points higher than the 50% in the same period in 2009, which is the main force to promote the rapid growth of China's exports.

From the main export products, the export growth rate of capital intensive products such as high-tech products and ships and steel products is higher than the average growth rate, while the labor-intensive products such as textile, clothing and footwear products are lower than the average export growth rate.

From the perspective of the nature of export enterprises, the export growth rate of state-owned enterprises is significantly lower than the average growth rate of exports, while foreign-funded enterprises are slightly lower than the average growth rate.

The current situation shows that a series of stable foreign demand measures adopted during the crisis have played a positive role in protecting the effective strength of enterprises and providing stable and efficient supply capability to the global market. This has laid the foundation for more orders to China after the crisis, which has made China's exports grow rapidly and the proportion of global exports increased further.

It is worth noting that after the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism started again in June 2010, the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has risen to a certain extent, which has played a positive role in improving China's terms of trade.

Looking ahead, the developed economies will maintain a moderate recovery trend, but the unemployment rate may be high and consumption growth is slow.

In order to maintain economic growth, western countries will maintain a very loose monetary policy.

Once the two signs of economic development emerge, governments will adopt a stronger stimulus policy, which has been reflected in recent US and Japan.

The main emerging economies will continue to maintain rapid growth.

Maintaining a moderate recovery in the global economy is conducive to China's export growth and foreign investment.

Influenced by the Christmas effect of developed countries, especially the United States, the fourth quarter has always been the peak of China's export.

In the fourth quarter of this year, China's exports will continue to maintain a relatively good growth trend, but export growth will continue to decline as a result of higher base year.

Export growth is expected to reach 28% in the year to achieve a trade surplus of US $190 billion, and the absorption of foreign capital for the first time will exceed US $100 billion for the first time.