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Textile And Garment Industry: Soaring Cotton Prices Will Adversely Affect 2011 Or Bring Crisis.

2010/10/26 10:09:00 77

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Cotton Price In Textile And Garment Industry

Exports remained strong in the three quarter: the value of China's textile and apparel exports in September was US $20 billion 16 million, an increase of 24.47% over the same period last year and a 3.28% increase over the corresponding period.

In 1-9 months, textile and apparel exports totaled 145 billion 482 million US dollars, an increase of 23.8% over the same period last year.

Yes

European Union

Exports and exports to the United States continued to grow at a relatively high year-on-year growth rate. The growth rate in the 1-8 months was 21.6% and 30.7% respectively.

Expected 10 years

Industry export value

Year-on-year growth rate of 16% to 20%: the fourth quarter year-on-year growth rate is lower than the first three quarters, the ratio is lower than the three quarter.

The main reasons are: the balance of European and American economies, and the proportion of China's total imports of textiles and clothing in Europe and the United States.

However, the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar is obvious, and the appreciation is expected to increase after the central bank announces the increase in interest rates.

Steady growth in domestic demand: in August 10, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China reached 12570 billion yuan, up 24.26% over the same period last year.

Total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 97492 billion yuan in 1-8 months, an increase of 23.78% over the same period last year.

Forecast for the four quarter

Sales volume

It was higher than the three quarter.

The surge in cotton prices stems from a sharp contradiction between supply and demand: the 328 spot price of domestic cotton hit the highest price in the year, 30 yuan in September, 22416 yuan / ton.

The average price in September rose by 49.5% over the same period last year, rising from 29% to 50% in 1-9 months.

The main reason is the tight global supply of cotton, low inventory, large demand for cotton, and the contradiction between supply and demand.

Speculative capital intervention is also an important reason.

It is estimated that the cotton price will remain at the price level of 20000 yuan / ton for the year, and the growth rate will slow down. In the long run, it may fall back: in the 10 year, the gap between China's cotton supply and demand reaches 3 million 483 thousand and 600 tons, and cotton prices may go higher, but the rate of increase will slow down.

In the short term, cotton prices will remain at a high level due to the lack of timely adjustment of supply and demand and the pursuit of speculative capital.

In the long run, cotton price growth can be curbed with the increase in downstream prices, the fall in demand and the expansion of cotton planting area.

It is expected that the adverse effects of rising cotton prices on the industry will be reflected in the first half of 2011.

The specific performance is the decline in corporate profit margins and the closure of small and medium-sized enterprises. But in the long run, the market share of the dominant enterprises will expand and promote the concentration of industries.