Cotton Prices Continue To Grow At &Nbsp, And "Substitute" Polyester Stocks Are Caught.

26 thousand and 300 yuan per ton! Yesterday (October 28th), the cotton 328 level index again set a new high, but in a strange way, in the two level market, the capital seems to have the main battlefield from the new agricultural development (closing price 18.53) and other cotton stocks to Huaxi Village (closing price 10.90 yuan) and other polyester concept stocks.

Three factors touting polyester stocks

On Thursday, the 328 cotton index of China Cotton reported 26 thousand and 300 yuan / ton, up 119 yuan and a record high compared with the previous day.

According to statistics, the index has risen 13% this month.

It is worth noting that this index has accumulated since the beginning of this year.

The rise in cotton prices often means the advent of "spring".

Yesterday, polyester stocks generally rose, of which the industry leader Huaxi Village rose 4.31%; Xinmin Technology (closing price of 13.85 yuan) rose slightly by 1.47%.

Since this month, Huaxi Village and Xinmin technologies have increased 56% and 51% respectively, much higher than the 10% increase in the same period.

Compared with the strong polyester stocks, the rally of the main cotton products such as the new race shares (closing price 17.98 yuan) and the new agriculture development has gone up.

According to reporter statistics, the two stocks rose 23% and 10%.

Why is cotton price high? Polyester and cotton shares enjoy very different treatment.

A senior analyst of China Cotton Textile Information Network told reporters that the continuous high innovation of cotton prices in recent years is related to the supply and demand gap of 3 million 350 thousand tons in China. On the other hand, it is affected by two factors, namely, market cooperation and new cotton's delayed listing.

At present, because cotton prices continue to rise, some cotton farmers are reluctant to sell, resulting in less and less cotton circulating on the market.

It is also reasonable to see a structural bull market in cotton under the influence of speculative capital.

In the two tier market, there are three main reasons for the fund's pursuit of polyester stocks: first, the current mainstream price of polyester is 13100 yuan / ton, and the difference between cotton and cotton is as high as 13445 yuan / ton, which has reached a new high of 10 years.

At the same time, when the price of mainstream chemical fiber products, such as viscose staple fiber, is high, there is still 5% space for the polyester fiber to be higher than the historical high. Secondly, under the pressure of cotton inflation, the demand for the middle and lower reaches has begun to shift from the past pure cotton to polyester cotton blended products, and the manufacturers can reduce the cost by increasing the proportion of polyester and cotton in polyester and cotton. Finally, with the continuous high innovation of cotton prices, the risk is also increasing.

The market is relatively cautious when funds may withdraw at any time.

This is also the main reason why cotton stocks are not as good as polyester stocks in recent years.

Market outlook is also seen in regulation and control policy.

In the case of rising cotton prices, there is still much room for imagination for polyester stocks.

"There are three uncertainties in the future that will restrain cotton prices."

The above analysts believe that "first, the recent meeting of the State Council has been deployed to regulate and control. In the future, the regulation of cotton prices will not be ruled out. This may lead to the withdrawal of speculation funds. Second, it is expected that the new cotton will be fully circulated in early November, which will effectively reduce the gap between supply and demand under the impact of annual output of about 8 million tons of supply. Third, the quota of imported cotton will probably be released in the near future to alleviate the pressure of demand, and the quota is expected to be no less than 890 thousand tons.

It is worth mentioning that when the turning point of cotton price arises, it also depends on the attitude of the capital, and the attitude of the fund is directly affected by the regulation and control.

Once the price is sharply adjusted, the price of polyester and other chemical fibers will definitely be suppressed.

So there is still much room for the future of the Dacron plate.

Yesterday, the reporter telephoned Huaxi Village, the company secretaries official said, at present, the company's polyester products to maintain full load production, the quotation increased by 2000 yuan / ton compared with the end of the three quarter.

Despite the risk of a callback after a record high of cotton prices, there is little doubt that the product will remain at the current price level because of the relatively small increase in polyester.

Statistics show that in the first half of this year, the gross profit margin of Huaxi Village polyester staple fiber was 3.09%, accounting for 38% of the main business income.

The company has a total capacity of 200 thousand tons of polyester staple fiber.

Guoxin Securities issued a research report in November 13th, pointing out that due to the recent rise in cotton prices, some cotton yarn enterprises began to increase the proportion of polyester staple fiber. Affected by this, the single ton gross profit of Huaxi Village polyester staple increased from 500 yuan to 2000 yuan / ton to 2500 yuan / ton. For example, the price of polyester staple fiber and polyester chip increased by 1000 yuan / ton, and earnings per share would be increased by about 0.25 yuan.