The Central Bank Raised The Deposit Reserve Rate By 0.5 Percentage Points For The Second Time In 9 Days.

Within 9 days

It was announced twice that the interval was the shortest in history.

The total increase was 2.5% during the year.

The deposit reserve refers to the deposits deposited by the financial institutions in the central bank to ensure the customers' withdrawal of deposits and the need for funds clearing. The ratio of the deposit reserve required by the central bank to their total deposits is the deposit reserve ratio.

18% of the deposit reserve ratio means that after absorbing 100 yuan deposits, banks will have to pay 18 yuan to the central bank, and the remaining 82 yuan can be used for lending.

By raising the deposit reserve ratio of banks, the central bank has released the signal of tightening liquidity and is known as one of the three big axes of macroeconomic regulation and control.

The increase in the deposit reserve ratio is the third time the central bank has made an adjustment in more than a month. It is also the fifth increase in the year. The cumulative increase in the year has reached 2.5%.

After this increase, the deposit reserve ratio of the general financial institutions will reach the highest level of 18%, while some of the financial institutions that implement the differential deposit reserve ratio will have to carry out the 18.5% standard.

According to the central bank statistics, by the end of October, the balance of RMB deposits in China's financial institutions reached 70 trillion and 280 billion yuan. Based on this calculation, the deposit reserve ratio will be increased by 0.5 percentage points and the funds will be frozen by 351 billion 400 million yuan.

The reporter roughly calculated that through the 5 increase in the deposit reserve ratio, the central bank this year total recovery funds more than one trillion yuan.

Li Daokui: controlling liquidity

Li Daokui, member of the central bank's monetary policy committee, said in an interview with CCTV yesterday that the purpose of this increase is to control the liquidity of the entire financial system.

Judging from the foreign situation, the second round of quantitative easing policy in the United States will bring inflow of capital in some form.

From the perspective of domestic factors, the liquidity of the banking system is very loose and banks may increase loans.

Appropriately raising the reserve ratio is conducive to macro regulation in the future.

Raising the deposit reserve rate has released the central bank's policy intention to tighten monetary policy.

Affected by this news, the US dollar increased slightly against the major non US currencies in the European market, and the US dollar index rebounded to 78.40 from a 78.22 intraday low.

High interest currencies have been looking back at previous increases, such as the Australian dollar fell to a 0.9822 low in the short term, but then rebounded.

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Stock market

Profits can be stabilized and stock markets stable.

Over the past two weeks, the A share market has been subject to further tightening policies such as interest rate hikes, and there has been a continuous decline.

Dacheng Fund believes that this continued increase in the deposit reserve ratio is more in line with expectations, mainly for the current bank liquidity is ample, "hot money" too much to take measures.

As the market has already had some anticipation of tightening policy, the short-term market will still be dominated by concussion, and there will not be a marked decline in the news.

However, changes in policy may lead to adjustments in some sectors.

Li Daxiao, director of the British Securities Institute, said the market had responded to the contraction of monetary policy ahead of time, and the performance of the market would not be too negative.

Influence of

Possibility or reduction of interest rate increase in the short term

With inflation expectations increasing, interest rate hikes are rising, and the frequent increase in the reserve requirement rate has lowered the expectation of raising interest rates?

Regarding this, Tan Yaling, President of China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute, believes that the current investment, credit scale and price indicators all show that the market liquidity is excessively abundant. Under such a background, the central bank's high deposit reserve ratio and its restraint from the source are the expected moves.

But interest rates should not be raised in the short term, because the increase in interest rates will further expand the profit margin and further speculative hot money.

In the context of excess liquidity, raising interest rates is not the best way to solve the problem.

Lu Zheng commissar, chief economist of Industrial Bank, believes that the possibility of raising interest rates will not decrease during the year.

He said that although the central bank has continuously raised the deposit reserve ratio, it does not mean that the adjustment has been in place, and at least needs to adjust the 1-2 deposit reserve ratio.

Adjusting liquidity is a necessary measure to control prices. However, the adjustment of the deposit reserve rate will not produce immediate results for CPI, so it is still necessary to raise interest rates.

Zhu Jianfang, chief macroeconomic analyst of CITIC Securities and Professor Guo Tianyong of Central University of Finance and Economics, believe that the central bank will consider whether to increase interest rates based on subsequent inflation and hot money.

Zhu Jianfang said that adjusting the deposit reserve ratio is more modest than raising interest rates, and the follow-up measures should be based on the situation of foreign capital inflow.

Guo Tianyong said that the future inflation situation still does not rule out the possibility of raising interest rates.

Buyers should be alert to the risk of violation

Monetary policy shifted from moderate easing to prudent, and bank loans gradually tightened. Especially at the end of the year, banks' loan tasks were basically completed, and the amount of loans could not be released. Now many branches have stopped issuing new housing loans.

In this regard, experts remind the central bank to further tighten the money. At the end of the year, buyers should be vigilant against the risk of default.

Wan Yumin, general manager of the Beijing real estate Guarantee Corporation, reminded that the mortgage policy is obviously much stricter, raising the down payment and concession interest rates, and at the end of the year, the amount of bank loans is tight. It is expected that more bank loans will not be granted. Therefore, people who are buying houses or buying houses in the near future should be alert to the risks of mortgage loans.

Generally speaking, the purchase agreement will stipulate that if the loan can not be run down, it will be considered as a result of the buyer's own causes, and may be fined.

Therefore, the intention to buy a house should be carefully consulting the mortgage policy of the relevant banks before buying houses.

Zhang Dawei, director of Zhongyuan Real estate research, said that the increase in the deposit reserve ratio and the pressure of developers' capital increased again. The growth of the developers in October was mainly based on self raised funds, and the increase in the total funds was self raised, and the increase in the deposit reserve ratio would make the amount of bank loans more tight.

Especially near the end of the year, many banks have basically run out of money in the year, which makes the developers who have already received the supervision of pre-sale funds have greater pressure on capital.