Dongxing Futures: Cotton Will Go Higher And Lower &Nbsp; The Future Will Be Mainly Based On Bargain Hunting.

First,

Zheng cotton main 05 contract opened 28115 points, closed at 27180 points, up 0.83%.

The turnover is 1942408 hands, and the positions are reduced by 8530 to 185474 hands.

Two, important influence

News: Cotlook cut cotton production in China 2010/11 to 6 million 200 thousand tons, which was estimated to be 6 million 400 thousand tons in October, while the cotton consumption estimate was reduced to 10 million 188 thousand tons, which was estimated at 10 million 488 thousand tons last month.

External news: US cotton December contract closed 133.90 cents / pound 4.50% on the previous day.

Cotton futures closed higher on Thursday, reaching a limit for the first time in three days.

Brokers say optimism about debt - laden Ireland may be dragging down the dollar and boosting the cotton market.

Domestic spot market: in November 19th, China's cotton price index (CCIndex328) was 28646, down 206 points.

Relative to the closing price of the 1101 contract, the current spread is 1111 yuan, and the spot price keeps rising.

In November 19th, China's cotton import price index (FC Index M) was 161.93, up 4.68.

The import cost is 27398 yuan / ton at 1% customs duty, and 27773 yuan per ton according to the sliding price.

Main trend: according to the top ten positions, today's zhengcotton total contract ranks more than 10 in the first 5365 positions to 5365 hands to 71900 hands, shorting 2429 to 67488 hands.

Net more than 4412 hands.

Today, most of the main net is reduced again, and the main empty COFCO is once again lighten up and more than 3000 empty handed.

Net and single numbers are declining, showing that the main force's willingness to do more is not very strong.

Warehouse receipt change: today Zhengzhou No. 1 cotton warehouse receipt is 42, with an effective forecast of 67.

Three. Technical analysis

Cotton 05 contract: opened sharply in early trading today, but then fell sharply.

In the wake of the sharp rebound in the stock index, the stock market stabilized.

The highest point is 28185, the lowest point is 26460.

Technical indicators, RSI down; KDJ up; MACD downlink, green pillar amplification.

Today, although the rise, but the K-line is a long line of the entity, the technical pressure is very high above.

Four, investment proposals

Cotton opened sharply today and then began to fall.

Cotton yarn and spot prices continue to decline slightly, which is the main disadvantage.

Technically, 28000 to 26000 has clearly become a recent shock interval.

A breakthrough in the future will become a better buy.

From the market perspective, the main profit of the market comes from policy pressure, and the relationship between supply and demand is still more intense.

At present, the acquisition of spot seed cotton has not yet been completed, and the fluctuation of future seed cotton prices will also affect the cost of lint this year.

Under the uncertain policy situation, the short-term cotton price is greater than 28000, but the downward space is also insufficient.

Medium to long term return to 30 thousand above the possibility of higher.

On the operation, it is recommended that bargain absorption should be the main form. Under 27000, the central line can be established.