Polyester Continues To Fall And Space Is Shrinking.

Polyester market declined last week.

So what will be the future of polyester market? I think this round of polyester crash market has ended, continue.

1, the upstream raw material market has no big drop space.

First, the price of international crude oil is easy to rise and fall.

With the arrival of the winter heating oil market, the problem of crude oil inventory is expected to improve.

The stock market has restricted the crude oil market for more than half a year. Once the inventory situation has been continuously improved, the market will have a retaliatory rise.

Secondly, the PTA market is also easy to rise or fall.

Because strong demand in the short term is still the biggest support for PTA.

At present, the profit of downstream polyester enterprises is at a high level. At present, the price of filament POY is more than 14500 yuan, and the price of staple fiber is more than 18000 yuan. The price of chips is around 12500 yuan. Polyester raw materials PTA and MEG are near 12000 yuan / ton even if they are near 10000 yuan, and all polyester products have high profits at present.

At such a profit level, the demand for PTA in polyester enterprises is basically rigid.

Moreover, in addition to the end of the year, nearly 2 million tons of polyester production capacity has been put into operation, and the raw materials reserve will further increase the demand for PTA.

This year, polyester production capacity has increased significantly, and PTA production capacity has basically increased.

In addition, several major PTA manufacturers in the early days have stopped production for different reasons.

This makes the PTA supply and demand problem more prominent in the future market, and its price will also become stronger.

Another MEG market for polyester raw materials is unlikely to fall sharply in the short term.

First of all, in recent years, domestic MEG production capacity has increased little, while downstream polyester production capacity has increased significantly.

Its overproduction began to turn to supply and demand.

Moreover, the profits of downstream polyester manufacturers are high, and the capacity is basically running at full capacity.

So the market is also hard demand.

The recent market trend of ethylene glycol is mainly based on prudent wait and see.

It is expected that ethylene glycol market will be dominated by consolidation in the short term.

2, the downstream hard demand is still around, and the procurement begins to pick up near the end of the month.

Starting from last week, the raw material procurement in the downstream weaving market tends to be dull, which makes the production and sale rate of raw materials manufacturers at most 2-3.

This is mainly due to continuous ups and downturns, which makes it difficult for downstream weaving factories to bear this change.

First, weaving factories are not good enough to quote the downstream enterprises, and downstream enterprises are also hard to place orders.

This makes weaving enterprises greatly increase their resistance to raw materials at this time. Most manufacturers take their own stock materials as raw materials, and all the raw materials have taken down measures.

However, because of the good market last year, the looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces increased significantly this year. According to market participants, the number of machines to be increased in Shengze and its surrounding areas will exceed 30 thousand. If a major domestic machine manufacturer reflects that, their orders will soon be full in 2011.

With the continuous operation of these machines, the rigid demand for polyester raw materials in the weaving Market is still high.

Therefore, with the slowing down of the price of raw materials, by the end of last week, the production and sales of polyester factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets generally recovered to around 4-5, although it is still low, most manufacturers still rely mainly on wait-and-see, but it is obvious that some weaving factories have already had a certain ability to meet the price of raw materials.

According to recent data released by the General Administration of customs, 1-10 months, textile and apparel exports totaled 167 billion 610 million US dollars, an increase of 23% over the same period last year, and the export volume has exceeded the total level of last year.

Visible terminal demand is still good.

3, polyester itself stock pressure is not big.

Although the production and marketing of polyester manufacturers have been in the downturn recently, the stock pressure is small due to the impact of early sales.

At present, the stock of polyester factories is within 10 days, the higher DTY is about 10 days, and FDY is about 5 days in a week or so.

In addition, the profit of polyester factories has always been high this year, and the manufacturers in the early season are cash pactions, so their capital strength has been relatively abundant, which makes the safety stock of polyester factories can rise to more than 30 days. In the past 20 days, the situation of polyester factory's big price promotion may be rare.

Combined with the current situation of downstream market, it is a dream to hope that the polyester factory will lose profits substantially.