Rising Costs And Appreciation Of The Renminbi Or Slowing Exports To Normalize Next Year

From the beginning of this year, "labor shortage" to "traders rush for factories" in the middle of the year, in the past 2010, exports were beautifully fought.

Reporters through the Pearl River Delta, Bohai and other export enterprises concentrated area survey found that many large export enterprises reflect the beginning of next year, the order is good, has made preparations for expansion.

But reporters found that

Polarization of export enterprises

Shandong Binzhou Yaguang towel factory is mainly exported to the United States, Liu Rui, a company salesperson, told reporters that orders for next year have been scheduled for March. Some of the orders have been discharged to May, and the company intends to continue to expand production next year.

For small businesses, however, exports will look bleak next year.

Take the cotton textile industry as an example, a practitioner told reporters that some small export enterprises took orders at a low price, but because the cost and exchange rate changed too much, these enterprises simply did not make profits or even suffered badly, so they simply chose to default.

Because of the surge in cotton prices this year, some small export enterprises are shoddy, and polyester and blended cotton are used as raw materials for cotton. Once the traders find that the quality of the products is defective, it will be even more difficult to take orders later.

In addition, since the second half of this year, the renminbi has accelerated appreciation, and hard earned profits are easily squeezed by the exchange rate. "Making money without making orders" has become a serious problem for some export enterprises next year.

A person in charge of bathroom products in Guangdong said that the factory received several orders for foreign exports, which made it hard for the company to recruit workers, and then to rush to complete the order and catch up with the appreciation of the renminbi.

The person in charge said that the exchange rate changed 2% of the factory's profits to the exchange rate, which is more embarrassing than the outbreak of the international financial crisis.

There are different ways to meet exchange rate fluctuations.

Data show that since the reopening of the exchange rate reform in June 19th, the appreciation of RMB against the US dollar has reached about 2%.

Recently, a questionnaire survey conducted by the China Light Industry Arts and crafts import and export association in the member enterprises showed that 35 of the 45 light industrial export enterprises surveyed showed that corporate profits had declined and half of them could withstand more than 3% yuan appreciation next year.

Experts point out that in many export industries, labor-intensive industries are most sensitive to exchange rate fluctuations due to their low profit margins, especially in processing trade enterprises which have no high-end trading status, lack of proprietary monopoly, proprietary intellectual property rights, global brands, overseas pricing power and independent overseas sales channels.

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However, for the unstable money market, many export enterprises have racked their brains to work hard to reduce risks.

More companies choose bank hedging business to set the exchange rate ahead of schedule.

"Yaguang has been doing exchange rate locking and overseas payment products at Bank of China.

Whether the exchange rate appreciates or depreciates, we exchange foreign currency at a fixed exchange rate.

Liu Rui told reporters, "if the export tax rebate is included, the original 1 US dollars to 7.8 yuan, now become 7.5 yuan."

In addition, because of the expansion of the enterprise, the export of Yaguang's export does not settle into Renminbi, but directly imports equipment from the US dollar account.

Yaguang also has a certain amount of cotton import quota, and can also import raw materials into the US dollar.

Some companies increase productivity to hedge against rising costs and exchange rate pressures.

Gong Zhifu said that the company made some internal adjustments last year to optimize the production process and improve efficiency.

The original production cycle is 7 to 10 days, and now it's only 5 to 7 days.

He said: "we also want to gradually reduce the proportion of manpower in the production cycle, improve production automation level, the cost savings of these actions can make up for the impact of wage increases on profits."

For small and medium-sized export enterprises with limited strength, the market can only be gradually pferred to the domestic market.

In Guangdong, Dongguan, Foshan and other places, there are many small and medium-sized furniture, bathroom, electronics and other related industries of foreign trade enterprises have gradually shifted part of their business from exports to domestic sales.

Export slowdown will become normal

Some analysts believe that

According to the Institute of Economic Research of Renmin University of China, under the multiple factors such as the world economic slowdown, the reversal of the inventory cycle of major developed countries, trade conflicts and exchange rate conflicts, the appreciation of the renminbi and the rise in internal costs, China's exports will decline in 2011, and the trade surplus will decrease slightly. However, due to the hedging of the two stimulus plans of the developed countries and the strengthening of China's trade competitiveness, the export decline is smaller than the general expectation. China's trade began to enter the "external rebalancing adjustment period" on the basis of normalization.

It is pointed out that although the appreciation of the RMB has a certain impact on exports, it is not the "primary killer".

Teng Tai, chief economist of national securities, said that China's exports are essentially determined by resource endowment advantages, international division of labor status and demand from abroad, and exchange rate fluctuations have little effect on imports and exports.

The information disclosed recently by the Canton Fair also shows that external demand is down.

The cost of all kinds of elements continues to rise, and the pressure on business continues to increase.

The Ministry of Commerce recently released the outlook for the 2011 foreign trade situation, pointing out that the international energy resources prices will continue to rise next year, directly driving domestic prices of raw materials, subject to the global excess liquidity, the weak dollar and speculative speculation.

Up to the end of September this year, 30 provinces have raised minimum wage standards, and labor costs may continue to rise next year.

The state's efforts to increase energy conservation and emission reduction will objectively increase the cost of environmental protection for enterprises.