The Market Says "Very Panic": Cotton Price Fluctuates, Sticky Short Silence......

December 15th is the deadline for the us to impose a new tariff on Chinese goods. The key day is coming, and the market sentiment is tense. According to the Wall Street journal, the US tariff plan originally scheduled for December 15th could be postponed. Stimulated by this factor, the European stock market, which was originally plunging, stabilized and rebounded, and the US stock index was also rapidly turning red. The panic index once dived.

Looking back at this week, the heavy pound incident has been continuous. What are the recent performance of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, such as interest rate resolutions, the British election and Sino US trade?

First, cotton prices fluctuate steadily overall.

Recently, the storage of cotton reserves has brought good results to the market, and Xinjiang manufacturers have bid for storage. However, as the cotton market is in the peak season, the spot price fluctuates little. The purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton remained stable. At present, the purchase price of hand picked cotton in Akesu, Kashi and other parts of the southern part of the Republic of China is 42% and the moisture regain is 10%. The purchase price is 6.20 yuan / kg, which is basically the same as that of the previous week; the seed cotton price of 38% lint is priced at 5.7 yuan / kg; and the price of cotton seed in the mainland is adjusted at 2.5-3.0 yuan / Jin. Many manufacturers indicated that the quality of seed cotton declined greatly in South Xinjiang, especially in machine picked cotton. In December 12th, domestic cotton 3128B quoted 13100 yuan / ton, up 7 yuan / ton compared with the previous day, and the closing price of zhengmian main CF005 was 13325 yuan / ton, up 110 yuan / ton compared with the previous day.

　　 But recently, the US Department of Agriculture released the December global cotton supply and demand report, which lowered global output, consumption and ending inventory. In the report, global output fell 180 thousand tons to 26 million 370 thousand tons, mainly in the United States, India, Pakistan and other countries; global consumption fell 270 thousand tons to 26 million 190 thousand tons, mainly for China's 220 thousand tons reduction; the end of the world inventory reduction of 110 thousand tons to 17 million 490 thousand tons, of which the countries involved are China and Brazil, the countries that are down are India and the United States. The data in the comparative report can be seen simply that the data are biased towards the good global market, but the most obvious Chinese market is the reduction of the consumption volume in China. As a result, the price of Zheng cotton will still be down in the short term.

Two, the price of pure cotton yarn has dropped.

Recently, the downstream market as a whole is weak, and the goods are not smooth. Especially before the year, the pressure of funds increased, and the price of some fabrics was lowered, which affected the upstream yarn market. Affected by the pressure of inventory, individual manufacturers have tried to cut prices to attract orders. A factory in Shandong has quoted 19200 yuan / ton of pure cotton yarn for 21S high knitting, and the current price of 32S high quality knitted pure cotton yarn is 20400 yuan / ton, which is 300 yuan / ton lower than the previous week, and the combing series can be reduced by 300 yuan / ton. It is understood that this year, the factory has an early holiday plan about 30%, in addition to this year's Spring Festival ahead of January, more important reason is less orders, spinning enterprises can not maintain normal production. In December 12th, the spot market C32S average price was 20760 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan / ton compared with the previous day.

　　 Three, short and quiet people cotton yarn stocking phenomenon increased

At present, viscose staple fiber is more stillness and atmosphere is lighter. The upstream pulp mill is difficult to sustain because of losses. The downstream gauze factory has a low price due to orders, viscose staple fiber manufacturers continue to lose money, low price clearing is very difficult, the whole industry chain is bad. At present, the middle end viscose staple fiber price is 9900-10000 yuan / ton, high-end 10100-10200 yuan / ton. While the price of cotton yarn is declining, the phenomenon of phased stocking of downstream weaving factories has increased. In December 12th, the spot price of cotton yarn 30S was quoted at 14910 yuan / ton, down 80 yuan / ton compared with the previous day.

　　 Four, polyester short price small rise pure polyester yarn overall stability.

Recently, most of the staple manufacturers of polyester staple fiber have remained stable, with a slight increase in individual cases and a general trading atmosphere. The mainstream of Jiangsu and Zhejiang 1.4D quotes 6800-6950 yuan / ton, real single or 6700-6800 yuan / ton; Fujian polyester staple fiber prices remain stable, 1.4D direct spinning quotation of 6900 yuan / ton about short distance to deliver, negotiate or at 6800-6850 yuan / ton; Shandong and Hebei polyester staple continue to adjust the trend, the gas exchange atmosphere is not good, 1.4D half light negotiation or near 6700-6800 yuan / ton, a single discount shipment. Demand side, at this time, the market professionals are more bearish mentality, late pure polyester yarn demand will further decline. But from the cost point of view, under the condition of loss, short term polyester staple fiber will be sorted and sorted out, and at the present stage, the pure polyester yarn processing fee is at a low level, which limits the profit margin of the spinning enterprises. Therefore, it is expected that the pure polyester yarn will continue to maintain the trend of stability in the short term. In December 12th, the 32S price of pure polyester yarn was quoted at 11290 yuan / ton, down 30 yuan / ton compared with the previous day.

To sum up, the current market has entered the off-season textile industry chain. On the whole, the downstream winter orders are coming to an end. If there is a lack of orders in the subsequent spring, the weak demand for downstream demand will continue, and the pressure on the cotton and yarn market will remain. At present, the market is generally concerned about the results of the recent Sino US consultations, hoping that the first phase of the agreement will bring a hint of warmth to the market.