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Internal And External Spreads Drive Cotton Up

2010/12/22 10:58:00 51

First, futures market review

Zheng cotton main contract 09 opened 28800 yuan, closed at 28995 points, up 2.06%.

The turnover was 1267440 hands, and the positions increased by 6106 to 245944.

Two. Analysis of important factors

News: according to Beijing's December 21st news, the data released by the General Administration of Customs on Tuesday showed that China's cotton imports in November increased by 12% to 126125 tons over the same period last year, up 31% from imports in October.

On December 20th, two government sources said the second largest in the world.

cotton

India, the producer, will give exporters more time to deliver 5 million 500 thousand bales of cotton that had not been exported before the deadline for December 15th.

External news: the US cotton March contract closed 154.12 cents / pound on the previous day, up 2.66%, closing down.

Cotton futures closed on Monday and close to a month high, analysts said, due to a small number of funds and speculative buying.

China's spot market: December 21st, China

cotton

The price index (CCIndex328) was 27324, up 55 points.

The current price difference relative to the closing price of the 1101 contract is -1471 yuan.

In December 21st, China's cotton import price index (FC Index M) was 183.85, up 3.41.

The import cost is 30985 yuan / ton at 1% customs duty, and 31297 yuan per ton according to the sliding price.

Matchmaking deal: in December 21st, the cotton trading market of the national cotton trade reached 27380 tons, compared with the previous trading day by 1760 tons, the order quantity increased by 2020 tons, and the total order quantity was 86820 tons.

Today, the market is shrinking.

MA1101 average price of 27840 yuan, up 380 yuan.

MA1105 average price of 28225 yuan, up 179 yuan.

Main trend: according to the top ten positions, today

Zheng cotton

The top more than 10 contracts were 2762 to 71342, and 1460 to 70784.

Net more than 558 hands.

Today, the main position has dropped again, and the net has dropped slightly.

Warehouse receipt change: today Zhengzhou No. 1 cotton warehouse receipt is 102, with an effective forecast of 164.

Three. Technical analysis

Cotton 09 contract: Today inertia again rises.

The highest point is 29040, the lowest point is 28600.

Technical indicators, RSI and KDJ up; MACD uplink, red column zoom in.

Cotton continues to rise today, the current trend of increase is obvious, and more should be firmly held.

Four, investment proposal {page_break}

Today, cotton is rising again under the rise of US cotton.

Short term internal and external spreads make Zheng cotton rise fully justified.

But the price of cotton yarn has not rebounded yet, and yarn profits are close to breakeven point.

The current price is mainly driven by an imported inflation. It is expected that cotton prices will be subject to a decent adjustment only if the price of Zheng cotton is higher than that of the imported cotton price.

The high price of cotton prices depends on when cotton yarn will rebound.

On the operation, investors are advised to increase their positions and continue to hold them.