Strong And Weak Cotton, Medium Term Rebound In Cotton

On Wednesday, the domestic commodity futures market continued to narrow the overall pattern. At the close, only 1% cotton (27720, -450.00, -1.60%) (-3.99%) and rubber (37135,40.00,0.11%) (-1.85%) fell. In addition, among the 21 listed varieties, only 4437,2.00,0.05% (soybean), corn (2346,8.00,0.34%), strong wheat (2598,6.00,0.23%), cotton, sugar (6982113.00,1.65%) and fuel oil (4883, -2.00, -0.04%) were added to the main contract. Analysts pointed out that the recent weak and weak commodity markets, the domestic market affected by the withdrawal of funds larger, in this context, it is difficult to present a large scale market.

　　 commodity External strength and internal weakness

Liu Xiaona, an analyst with China Merchants futures, said that the recent increase in the margin ratio and the handling fee of the exchange made the market hype cool down effectively, and the volume and position of the commodity market continued to decrease. At the same time, policy faces are temporarily stable. Under this background, there is no big market for commodities. Investors can wait and see in operation.

Lin Hui, deputy director of the East Asia Futures Research Institute, believes that a short period of calm is actually a temporary compromise between the government and the market, from the perspective of policy regulation, that is, "shooting the birds out of the head"; from the market point of view, institutions need year-end stocktaking, and there is no need to "outcrop" at the juncture. In the absence of external stimulus, market performance is not normal. It is normal for many markets to be close to or even higher than the historical high point. If the breakthrough is to open up a new rising space, it is unlikely that the market performance will show up from the recent market performance. Therefore, it is more likely to fall back first, make technical arrangement, and further consolidate the foundation before looking for a breakthrough. "The market will continue to pull. "Otherwise, even if the price hits a high point, it may be short-term," Lin Hui predicted.

Cotton mid-term rebound in place

While occupying the top of the decline, it also added sharply to 22 days. Zheng cotton Once again become the focus of attention.

Because of the signs of exhaustion in the United States cotton overnight, Zheng cotton 22 days downward trend. The main 1109 contract closed at 27675 yuan / ton, compared with the previous trading day settlement price fell 1150 yuan, or 3.99%, with the price decline, trading volume and holdings increased simultaneously, the main contract traded 1 million 440 thousand hands throughout the day, increased 170 thousand hands, holding 260 thousand hands, increased 13 thousand hands.

Shanghai mid-term analysts believe that the price of zhengmian main 1109 contract just rebounded to 29000 yuan / ton line, which is also the 50% position since the fall in mid November. Technically, the rebound is in place. According to the research provided by the company, Textile mill It is thought that once cotton reaches 30 thousand yuan, it will be beyond its actual value. Although the new cotton market will be listed next year, global cotton will still be in a tight supply and demand. On the spot side, the spot price of domestic three grade cotton has been maintained at around 28000 yuan per ton, and it can also be proved that the action is insufficient. {page_break}

Demand side, after a sharp rise and fall, downstream textile, gray fabric, fabric enterprises in the off-season, inventory gradually increased, in the current round of rebound, follow-up is not obvious. It is certain that demand will weaken next year than in 2010. However, another key factor is the price adjustment policy of the state. In the context of imported inflation, whether the country should introduce new policies needs to be concerned.

It is worth mentioning that in recent years, the US cotton broke through the previous historical high point in the way of continuous trading, but the actual volume and position were reduced. Overnight, the US cotton March contract lasted third consecutive trading days, but the forward October and December contracts showed varying degrees of decline, indicating that the US cotton upward momentum has been insufficient.