Major Events Of Textile And Garment Industry In 2010 And Prospects For 2011

1, 2010 Textile and garment industry "Recovery" and "pressure" coexist. According to the National Bureau of statistics, in 2010 1-11, the textile and garment industry realized a profit of 174 billion 501 million yuan, an increase of 75.92% over the same period last year, and a cumulative export of 186 billion 621 million US dollars in 1-11 months, up 24.19% over the same period last year. clothing Retail sales grew by an average of 25.46% over the same period last month. In the context of the revival of international and domestic economic recovery demand, the export and domestic sales of textile and garment industry have been restored to a new level. Nevertheless, the road to recovery is not easy. stay Raw material The rise and fall of roller coaster and the labor shortage in the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta, Fujian and other textile industries have seriously affected the normal operation of enterprises; in terms of exchange rate, since the two exchange reform was launched in June to December 30th, the appreciation rate of RMB against the US dollar has been 3.13%. According to experts estimates, the RMB exchange rate appreciated by 1%, and the profits of textile and garment enterprises will be reduced by at least 6%. This is frost on snow for traditional textile and garment enterprises with an average profit margin of less than 10%. In the context of trade frictions and the weak economic recovery in Europe and the United States, increasing trade friction has become the economic and political needs of the United States. In terms of supply, cotton prices and chemical fiber prices have gone through. Under the environment of multiple pressures, the textile and garment industry is advancing at a heavy pace.

2, the sharp rise and fall of cotton prices reflect the crisis of supply chain. In recent years, cotton prices have plummeted and plummeted into a normal state. After the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008, the export of textile and garment industry was severely weakened. As the main raw material of textile and garment industry, the demand for cotton decreased sharply. The demand for cotton for 2008/2009 was 9 million 580 thousand tons, which was 1 million 520 thousand tons less than that in 2007/2008, while the cotton output in the same period decreased by only 130 thousand tons. The supply of excess cotton made cotton prices plummeted after the new cotton harvest in September 2008, which left a deep shadow in the hearts of cotton farmers. The spontaneous reduction of cotton production in 2009 and the unfavorable climatic factors in the main cotton producing areas resulted in a significant reduction in cotton production. The cotton output in 2009/2010 was only 6 million 400 thousand tons, down 1 million 90 thousand tons compared with the previous year. The demand for cotton has undergone fundamental changes. In the context of the global economic recovery, the textile and garment industry exports are warming up, the enterprises are replenishing stocks and the operating rate has also increased significantly. The industry has once again witnessed a boom in production and marketing, and cotton prices have risen sharply. The cotton price rose by 21.16% in 1-8 months in 2010. And this increase is becoming insignificant. In mid September 2010, the reduction of cotton seed area and the rainy weather in the the Yellow River valley of the Yangtze River once again caused the market to reduce the output of new cotton. According to the first textile network forecast, the cotton production in 2010/2011 is 6 million 700 thousand tons, while the cotton consumption is about 10 million 800 thousand tons (of which 10 million 550 thousand tons of spinning cotton is used). Assuming that the consumption of stocks is 550 thousand tons, it means there is a gap of 3 million 550 thousand tons, which needs to be replenish by imports. Judging from the fact that international cotton is also reducing production, next year's cotton supply market will be tight. For a time, the supply and demand relationship was the main reason, and the price of cotton spot and futures markets surged at the same time, such as cotton hoarding, farmers' reluctant sale, futures trading and hot money speculation. The national cotton 328 began to rise at the price of 18002 yuan / ton in early September, reaching the highest value of 31302 yuan / ton in the 11 months, and increased by 73.85% in just over two months. The crazy increase has alerted the relevant departments of the country. In November 11th, Wei Qiao textile, the largest textile enterprise in the world, began to reduce the purchase price of lint 200 yuan / ton, which is regarded as the result of administrative pressure. In November 17th, the State Council held a executive meeting, and put forward some measures to stabilize prices of agricultural products, including provisions on "strengthening Xinjiang's cotton Sinotrans", "banning unlicensed acquisitions, processing cotton without evidence" and "increasing penalties for illegal acts". {page_break}
 

In the context of the government's efforts to increase the intensity of the loading and regulation of cotton, the market speculation has faded. Cotton Traders can not sustain the increase in cotton prices because of the tight chain of funds. So since November 11th, cotton prices have plunged and plunged, and they have lost more than 15% in two weeks. In this rise and fall, the most serious loss is the speculation team that has not been withdrawn in time and the cotton yarn enterprises with high price to replenish the stock. Cotton prices fell due to the fall in cotton prices, and cotton prices remained in a state of decline after the cotton prices stabilized and picked up in December. The future of traditional cotton spinning enterprises will be very difficult. Reflecting on this huge cotton price fluctuation, although the long-term trend of cotton price rise is determined, if the government can guide cotton farmers to plan cotton planting area ahead of schedule, it may avoid sharp rise and fall. Whether it is "unified sale and purchase" in the cotton market before 2001, or after the reform of the circulation system, "the acquisition and sale prices of cotton are all formed by the market", it is unfavorable for the healthy operation of the cotton market. The marketization guided by the government departments is the win-win way for cotton farmers, cotton merchants and cotton yarn enterprises.

3, the "danger" and "machine" of the industry in 2011. 2011 is the opening year of the 12th Five-Year plan. The upgrading of industrial structure, the elimination of backward production capacity and the transfer of industries will become the dominant trend in the development of the textile and garment industry. Small enterprises with backward technology and small profits will gradually be eliminated, and the market resources will be more concentrated on the dominant enterprises. 2011 is also the year of macro policy, especially the turning of monetary policy. The majority of textile and garment enterprises of private enterprises will increase the difficulty in obtaining credit and increase their financing cost. The reform of personal tax system, the degree of inflation and consumption ability and consumption structure will directly affect the domestic market of textile and garment industry. In the peripheral market, the pace of economic recovery in Europe and the United States is still slow, and the United States continues to exert political pressure to call for appreciation of the renminbi. The survival conditions of foreign trade enterprises in textile and garment industry are much worse than before the financial crisis. What is the opportunity for textile and garment industry under internal and external troubles? I summarize the following points: (1) develop brand and speed up vertical integration of industries. In the upper reaches of manufacturing, the cost of raw materials procurement can be controlled by setting up a company or annexation and purchase, and enhancing the efficiency of logistics in the downstream of manufacturing, and reducing the loss of funds occupied by logistics and stock. At the same time, through the design and sale of two links to enhance brand value. (2) enter functional textiles and industrial textiles. The new functional fibers and high-end industrial textiles are still at the initial stage of development in China. If the enterprises can tackle the problems in product development, industrialization and market development, the cake in this market will be gradually enlarged. (3) introducing foreign capital, learning brand operation experience from foreign brand enterprises, and further expanding overseas channels through the convenience of foreign capital. (4) attach importance to the construction of information network. Today, with the increasingly large marketing network and multi-level marketing structure, the construction of information network can help enterprises grasp market sales, allocate inventory, measure performance, and strengthen internal communication, so as to play an important role in improving management efficiency and reducing costs. (5) grasp the trend of vigorous development of e-commerce. As a new business mode, e-commerce is rapidly sweeping the domestic market. According to the Ministry of Commerce forecast, the share of online shopping market will account for about 5% of the total retail sales of social consumer goods in the next 3-5 years. In the face of this huge market, brand clothing enterprises can increase sales channels by establishing their own shopping websites, stationing in online shopping centers, or joining online comprehensive brand agents like Mcglaughlin and Yao Dian 100.

4, continue to look for investment opportunities in brand enterprises. In the case of unclear external demand and the pressure of RMB appreciation, the brand clothing enterprises focusing on the growing domestic market have gradually highlighted their advantages. Faced with rising raw material and labor costs, brand clothing promotes the price and costs by passing brand value and providing value-added services. Brand enterprises will help to upgrade the value chain and technology level of industrial clusters, so the future trend of garment market will be that new brands will continue to join in competition, excellent brands will become bigger and stronger, and vulnerable brands will withdraw from the market or be merged. Some measures to speed up the development of independent brand in the textile industry readjustment and revitalization plan also provide policy support for brand development and growth. Most of the companies listed since 2008 are excellent brand clothing enterprises, such as American Apparel, Pathfinder and three home textile brands. The rapid development of these excellent companies shows that the era of brand clothing has officially arrived. There are two kinds of investment opportunities we hope to find. One is a company that is mature in its brand operation, relies on horse race enclosure or mergers and acquisitions to expand, and promotes market share in existing markets, such as wedding birds, Hinur, Pathfinder, search for special and seven wolves, and a company that goes through many brand management strategies to enter new markets or explore new business models, such as opening up the high-end brand of American state clothing, and developing the happy birds of group buying and online shopping brand.