Zheng Cotton Will Maintain High Volatility &Nbsp; Wait For The Downstream To Warm Up And Uplink.

First, the internal and external markets are jointly innovating and the external strength and internal weakness remain unchanged.

1, the US cotton sales momentum is strong, and the price breaks through two hundred cents.

This week, the US cotton accelerated up, mainly due to the Australian government's reduction in the output of Australia cotton.

2, the main funds to promote, Zheng cotton hit a new high.

This week, the trend of Zheng cotton was significantly weaker than the external market, and the market was on the high side. The pressure on the top 34500 points was still strong for Zheng cotton, but compared to the surrounding varieties, Zheng cotton still hit a new high of 34870 points, and there were no signs of withdrawal from the main funds. Therefore, Zheng cotton will remain high in the aftermath.

Zheng cotton main 1109 contract fell 340 points, or 1.01%, to close at 33455 yuan / ton.

Two, global cotton supply and demand continue to be tight, planting area or expansion next year

1, India or last year's export target

This week, a ministerial meeting was held in India to discuss the export and supply and demand trend of cotton, and finally decided to maintain the export quota at 5 million 500 thousand bales.

To a certain extent, this is a certain impact on the future global cotton demand.

However, because of the variability of India policy, it does not exclude that the export volume will be increased or reduced in the later stage. It will also depend on the demand of India's domestic textile industry.

2, cotton prices rise to boost planting enthusiasm, the next year

The rising cotton prices this year have promoted the enthusiasm of cotton growers all over the world.

From the Chinese point of view, the latest report of the China Cotton Association said that the cotton planting area in the Yangtze River Basin continued to increase in 2011, with an expected increase of 11.7%. The enthusiasm of cotton growers in the the Yellow River river basin is not high, and it is expected to increase by 4.9%.

From the US point of view, NCC's US cotton planting intention survey report said that the 2011 cotton planting area in the United States is expected to reach 12 million 500 thousand acres, an increase of 14% over the 2010 year.

Among them, the area of upland cotton will reach 12 million 300 thousand acres, 14% higher than that in 10, and the area of long staple cotton is 251 thousand acres, a significant increase of 23%.

This is the result of the 4-6 annual meeting of the American Cotton Association on February.

Three, the downstream textile industry has shown signs of improvement, and the spot price of cotton has steadily risen.

1.

Overall, with the arrival of the peak season of textile consumption in March, the future prices of downstream yarns are expected to rise.

But for the time being, the real consumption has not yet started, the low price of low yarn orders are more, and sales are better.

However, due to the rising price of cotton spot goods after the holiday, textile enterprises have been forced to increase their quotations. In general, the price of all cotton yarn has steadily increased.

As of February 27th, KC325 was 38000 yuan / ton, and JC40S was 45000 yuan / ton.

2, the difference between inside and outside cotton is too large, and domestic cotton has a larger space to go up.

Although the textile enterprises are still in the waiting and inquiry stage, there are not enough cotton, but because of the high expectations of the spot traders for the future cotton prices, and the sharp rise in futures prices, the prices have been raised, and the spot price of cotton has also risen steadily.

China's cotton price index rose 536 yuan / ton this week, to 30251 yuan / ton.

If the sale of cotton yarn is better in March, the spot price of cotton will go up sharply.

In addition, in the case of high innovation in the United States cotton futures, the import cotton to the port price has risen sharply. By February 17th, the import cotton price index (FCIndex S) was 225.04 cents per pound, 1% tariff 37506 yuan / ton, and a slip quasi tax of 37781 yuan / ton.

It is far higher than the domestic spot price at the same level, so the spot price of cotton produced in China has a larger space for later growth.

Four, cotton high and low volatility pattern unchanged, the bottom will gradually uplift.

1, strong interest in the main funds, the cotton market has not ended.

The recent market trend of cotton has attracted a lot of money in the field.

Some companies that did not often make cotton varieties were also involved in the market. Although a small number of main players chose to take profits and leave the market, most of the main forces did not leave. This also indicates that the cotton market has not ended and will continue to rise in the later stage.

2, the technological shape is intact, and the market will be oscillating upward.

From the technical point of view, Zheng cotton main contract 1109 received a big Yin line on Friday, and wore two or even 5 and 10 days, but the trend of long-term uplink of Zheng cotton did not change. The average lines were arranged in a long way, so Friday's fall can also be seen as a wash dish. Next week, cotton will continue to maintain the pattern of high and high volatility, and wait for the fundamentals to make good progress.

Speculator: shorts can be concerned about the short and short opportunities in the day; for bulls, those who do not enter can be admitted at the beginning of next week on the 32000 line, and for the long trend, it can be added to the 32500 line.

Current arbitrage: buy spot and sell futures to lock in profits.

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Intertemporal Arbitrage: at present, the main 1109 and 1201 contracts of cotton are bigger, but the pattern of close to strong and far weaker can still be tried to buy a strategy which is far away.