The Renminbi May Rise More Than 5% This Year, And Its Impact On China'S Exports Will Increase.

Yang Jianlong, Vice Minister of the Ministry of industry and Economic Research of the State Council Development Research Center, said on Wednesday. RMB appreciation This is likely to accelerate. The increase of 5% this year has been widely accepted and the ceiling will be even higher. RMB rate The impact on China's exports is increasing rapidly.

Yang Jianlong said at a forum that the impact of the RMB exchange rate on exports would be superimposed. Shortage of migrant workers The rising labor costs and other unfavorable factors caused the increase in labor costs. Economic recovery in Europe and America Optimistic expectations for China's exports have rapidly weakened.

"We can say that to judge and predict the RMB appreciation process this year, 5% is already the bottom line... Certainly not the upper limit, the upper limit is estimated to be even higher. "Yang Jianlong said.

The Central Bank of China restarted the reform in June 19th last year to enhance the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate. In 2010, the yuan appreciated by 3.6%. against the US dollar. After entering 2011, the yuan / dollar basically moved around the closing point of the end of last year. The central parity of RMB against the US dollar is 6.5601 yuan.

During the two sessions (NPC and CPPCC), Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao also said that the flexibility of RMB floating will be further increased according to the change of market demand. But at the same time, we must consider whether this appreciation is gradual or not, because it is related to the affordability and employment of enterprises, and to maintain the stability of the whole society.

Yang Jianlong pointed out at the forum that according to detailed calculations and international experience, the impact of exchange rate changes on exports is nonlinear, but there is an inflection point.

He further explained that the appreciation of the exchange rate seems to be concealed by the promotion of competitiveness when the national industrial competitiveness can be met. The product can not be seen too much impact, but the exchange rate will eventually approach or surpass the scope of industrial competitiveness, and "overnight" will have a greater impact on exports.

He said that it is not yet clear when the inflection point will occur, but the southeast coastal exportation is under heavy pressure, which has made people feel that the turning point is approaching quickly.

　　 Yang Jianlong It is believed that the sharp decline in export growth this year will also be expected.

The import and export data released by the customs and Excise Department in February showed that exports grew by 4.9% over the same period last year, and imports increased by 26.6% over the same period last year, and an unexpected trade deficit of US $7 billion 300 million. Commerce minister Chen Deming also said that the export growth rate will not be very fast this year, and imports will be faster than exports. With the development of China's economy and competitiveness, the RMB exchange rate is a gradual appreciation process in the long run.