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Cotton Will Usher In Spring In April.

2011/3/28 13:45:00 61

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Early March

cotton

The market is slightly weaker, but quotations are still relatively strong everywhere.

But since Japan's 9 magnitude earthquake and tsunami and nuclear crisis occurred in Japan in March 11th, panic has spread, and the market has been shrouded in haze.

Cotton producers everywhere sell cotton at a low price, but downstream textile enterprises are not actively buying, and wait for the cotton market to move further.

After the earthquake, the crisis of nuclear leakage has been further controlled. The price of cotton is relatively stable now. It seems that we are waiting for a wave of pulse market.

From a macro perspective, the early stage, influenced by extreme weather in some major grain producing areas of the world, has further aggravated the imbalance between supply and demand of global agricultural products, and has continued to rise in international grain prices. Recently, influenced by geopolitical factors brought about by political turmoil in Libya and other Middle East and North African countries, international oil prices and gold prices have risen sharply.

At the same time, with the international grain prices and oil prices and gold prices soaring, cotton and other commodity prices also followed.

Although the international grain prices and oil prices and gold prices had a short period of time and a certain degree of decline, cotton prices also downward.

But then, under the influence of Japan's easing monetary policy and the intensification of Libya's tension, the international crude oil and gold and other bulk

commodity

Prices have gradually recovered their previous highs.

It is likely that the prices of cotton and other commodities will continue to rise, and the risk of global inflation will also increase.

cotton

Basically, the supply and demand situation is summed up in one sentence: low output, stable demand and import blockage.

This year's cotton supply is more tight, mainly reflected in two aspects: first, inventory reaches the lowest point in history; USDA estimates that China's final stock is only 2 million 870 thousand tons, and China's Cotton Storage stock is only 300 thousand tons; two is China's cotton production for two consecutive years, and cotton production is only 6 million 420 thousand tons (USDA data) this year. There is no big change in demand. The textile export in China from 1 to February this year has maintained a steady growth trend, and the demand is expected to remain at 10 million 500 thousand tons last year, and the gap between supply and demand is nearly 4 million tons.

Although the gap is large, due to last November, cotton has been cut off.

Price

It has been far higher than domestic cotton prices. Many enterprises have not purchased the cotton in the current year, resulting in relative inadequacy of imports.

It is understood that the cotton farmers cooperative association of China Cotton Association has investigated 310 provinces and 12 provinces in the mainland and the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. It is estimated that the cotton planting area in 2011 will be 84 million 550 thousand mu, which is 9.8% higher than that of the previous year, mainly in the Yangtze River basin and Xinjiang. The area of Shandong and Henan is not obvious.

Although the forecast shows that the area of cotton planting will expand this year, only after the cotton is picked up in October will it play its role in regulating the market.

From now until October this year, cotton will still be tight.

During this period, supply and demand can still affect cotton prices.

Short supply will still provide a rigid support for the rise of cotton prices.

Downstream, the general situation of the cotton mill is low cotton inventory, high yarn stock and low raw material stock. The reason why more than 30 thousand of the textile factories dare not hoard too many spot cotton products is that the yarn sales are not smooth in March. According to past practice, the cotton mill will increase product inventory in March to cope with the peak season of consumption in 4 and May.

According to the author's understanding, the current textile mills are very worried about the high inventory of products, but on the contrary, they are optimistic about the cotton market.

According to the current textile inventory, the cotton mill must increase the replenishment of raw materials after April, which may become the driving force to open the stalemate.

Perhaps the earthquake in Japan is just the darkness before dawn. In the background of planting area and the arrival of the traditional textile peak season in April, cotton may not be far away from "spring".