&Nbsp Will Be Affected By The Sharp Rise In Import Prices; China May Have A Trade Deficit In March.

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China Customs General Administration will announce trade figures for March on Sunday.

Economists say UBS Securities, if it does, is likely to have a quarterly trade deficit since the first quarter of 2004.

But they also expect China to achieve a large trade surplus in 2011, possibly at 140 billion -1500 billion dollars.

The survey shows that exports in March may increase by 24% over the same period last year, an increase from 2.4% in February.

Imports in March may increase by 20.8% over the same period last year, slightly higher than the 19.4% increase in February.

The Goldman Sachs economist said in a research report that China may return to its trade surplus again later, and that China's trade surplus will probably rise to a high level in the second half of this year.

China suffered a trade deficit of 7 billion 240 million US dollars in March last year, but there was a trade surplus in April and the following months.

In May last year, the trade surplus reached about 20 billion US dollars, expanded to 28 billion 730 million US dollars in July, and reached 27 billion 150 million US dollars in October.

Economists at Goldman Sachs say they believe external demand growth will remain strong and will boost China's export growth in the coming months.

At the same time, because the domestic monetary tightening policy restraining domestic demand, import growth may continue to be under pressure.

Goldman Sachs also said that the recent natural disasters in Japan had limited impact on China's March trade data and said that due to the strong export of China, it is expected that the Chinese government will allow RMB to appreciate further against the US dollar by 6% next year.

The survey also shows that by the end of March, China's broad money supply M2 is expected to grow by 15.4% over the previous year, down from 15.7% in February.

The survey also showed that China's financial institutions could expect RMB loans to increase by 585 billion yuan last month, up from 535 billion 600 million yuan in February.

Analysts say the reason for the slight expansion of new loans may be that the working day in March is greater than that in February. This year's Lunar New Year holiday is in February.

The Central Bank of China may issue data on loans and money supply next week, and will also issue data on foreign exchange reserves at the end of March.

Citigroup (Citigroup) expects China's foreign exchange reserves by the end of March to grow by about US $150 billion to around $3 trillion, compared with us $2 trillion and 847 billion at the end of 2010.

Citigroup said in its research report that the State Administration of foreign exchange has tightened its management of capital accounts recently, suggesting that there is still a large capital inflow in the first quarter.

Capital Economics expects foreign exchange reserves to reach US $3 trillion and 50 billion at the end of March.

Goldman Sachs said M2 could rebound in March due to increased foreign exchange inflows.

It also said that even if there was a rebound, the implied M2 growth in the first quarter compared with the previous quarter may be 13.5%, still lower than the growth rate of over 18% in the fourth quarter of last year.

Goldman Sachs added that this shows the tightening effect of monetary policy since the beginning of this year, which could reduce inflationary pressure in the coming months by restraining domestic demand growth.