2011 Financial Management Depends On The General Trend.

There is a famous saying in the stock market: we should listen to the party if we want to speculate on stocks.

In fact, the policy aspect of light research is not enough.

In recent years, the butterfly effect also involves stock market ups and downs.

So-called

Rising commodity prices

Qu Hongbin believes that if the international economic situation in 2011 is summed up in one sentence, uncertainty is on the rise. The first thing to bear is the continuous rise of commodity prices.

Since the 2009 financial crisis, international oil prices have been rising rapidly. Recent turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa has further aggravated the pressure of rising oil prices.

There is a deeper reason behind the rise in international oil prices.

The reasons include two aspects, one is demand.

2009

The second factor is related to the fundamentals. Quantitative easing is the most typical Western trend to stimulate economic policy, and it also leads to excess liquidity in the world, driving commodity prices up.

Commodity trading units are mainly U.S. dollars, and the US quantitative easing policy also plays a very important role in promoting the price rise of commodities, and will promote the global inflation trend.

Qu Hongbin believes that the rise in commodity prices is an additional tax for the real economy and may have a negative impact on the overall economic growth.

If commodities, especially oil prices, remain in the next three quarters at 110 US $-120, global economic growth will be reduced by 0.5 percentage points, mainly due to the slowdown in the US economy and the developed countries, and inflation will increase by 0.3 percentage points.

If the oil price rises to more than 150 dollars, it may cause a heavy blow to the global economy.

This will have a greater impact on the overall economic policy.

Qu Hongbin introduced that the basic prediction of Standard Chartered experts is that the average annual oil price in 2011 may be 105 US dollars / barrel level, and the global economic growth is basically free from worry, including the US economy, which will remain at the same level as last year.

Europe's economy has slowed down, but it will not slow much.

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Exacerbating global inflationary pressures

The rise of commodities has brought uncertainty to global economic growth, and the most important aspect is to further exacerbate the pressure of global inflation.

The European Central Bank recently launched its first interest rate increase since 2008.

Standard Chartered experts believe that the European Central Bank will also enter the interest rate channel next, which is a moderate adjustment in the policy of inflation pressure on commodity inflation.

The rise in commodity prices will also push the fed to speed up quantitative easing earlier in the original plan.

The Fed is more prudent in raising interest rates than the European Central Bank.

Before the end of this year, the Fed is likely to maintain the current low interest rate.

This further exacerbates the pressure of imported inflation in emerging market countries.

In the emerging market countries, the government's anti inflation efforts will further increase, which, to a certain extent, can explain why the central bank recently raised interest rates again, which shows that inflationary pressure can not be ignored.

What changes will the global economic background bring to China's economy? What will be the corresponding policies?

First, the tightening monetary policy since November last year and other tight policies against food prices and asset prices have already achieved initial success.

But it is too early to say that the policy of credit contraction has reached the expected target. At least in the two quarter, policymakers should maintain the current credit contraction so that the overall inflation pressure will be slowed down in the second half of the year.

It is estimated that there will be two increase in the deposit reserve rate in the two quarter. There will also be 25 base points interest rate increase and interest rates, as well as the continuous introduction of supply measures. If these can be done well, at the end of the two quarter, especially around mid June, inflation pressure will see a downward trend.

Tight monetary policy will not only have a negative impact on consumption, but Qu Hongbin even feels that it will have a positive impact.

From the economic fundamentals and policy fundamentals, the financial market will have a positive response to the improvement in the second half of the year.

In fact, the stock market has responded to this in the past few weeks.

Future trend of RMB

For the time being, the US dollar may have further devaluation in the second half of the year compared with other major currencies.

Why RMB appreciation will not be faster?

Qu Hongbin believes that China is currently the biggest demand for the global commodity market, and that the import inflation can be inhibited by the appreciation of the renminbi. The effect is far less effective than that of the small economies.

Imagine, what will happen to the RMB appreciation in the near future?

Most Chinese enterprises find that imported iron ore denominated in Renminbi is cheaper than before, and they will buy more iron ore.

As China is the biggest demand, the demand for Chinese enterprises is increasing, and global commodity prices will rise further.

For China, the most effective way to curb imported inflation is to tighten up the credit policy.

Another trend associated with the renminbi will be faster than most people think in the next few years, that is, the internationalization of the renminbi.

As the largest exporter in the world, China still uses other countries' currencies to settle nearly 95% of the import and export trade.

In the past 200 years, the history of global financial development is unprecedented.

The position of RMB in international trade is far behind China's economic development and the status of China's trade in the world.

In the long run, the internationalization of China's RMB will be beneficial to our long-term development strategy.

The internationalization of RMB in the future is actually a matter of raising its position to match the international status of our economy.

Qu Hongbin believes that the internationalization of RMB will not have a direct impact on our daily life and daily work in the next 3-5 months. But in the next 3-5 years, it is not only the Chinese financial market, but also the global financial market, which is a very big theme of development.

More time should be devoted to further exploring the investment opportunities brought about by the internationalization of RMB, thereby increasing the wealth of all of us.