Zheng Cotton Market Is Still Disadvantaged

April 18th Zhengzhou Cotton futures The main contract 1109 opened 28000 yuan / ton, noon closed at 28245 yuan, compared with last Friday (15) settlement price fell 180 yuan.

The lack of market demand has affected the current situation. International cotton price Important factors. Although market participants continue to look at the new year's market, it is an indisputable fact that the current demand for cotton is shrinking. As the whole is still in the stage of poor production and marketing, so in the downstream textile enterprises did not appear positive changes before, the short-term market is still weak, waiting for the recovery of textile enterprises.

Domestic market, domestic cotton spot prices continue to weaken, coupled with the decline in domestic yarn, downstream enterprises procurement is not strong, low grade cotton is also difficult to sell, before the downstream market sales no turning point, the short term cotton market will still be dominated by disadvantaged. According to the survey, cotton stocks in downstream enterprises have dropped to 20 days, but cotton yarn inventory has surged to 50 days from the previous 28 days. Therefore, downstream sales are extremely difficult. According to the survey, textile enterprises have more than 70% bearish sentiment on the market outlook.

On the domestic macro side, the National Bureau of statistics released in the morning of April 15th, the first quarter GDP grew by 9.7% compared with the same period last year, and CPI rose by 5%. In March, CPI rose by 5.4% compared to the same period last year, and the annulus ratio decreased by 0.2%. During the weekend, the people's Bank of China decided to increase the deposit reserve ratio of deposit financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points from April 21, 2011. This is the fourth time the central bank has raised the deposit reserve ratio this year. After the rise, the deposit reserve ratio of large and medium-sized financial institutions reached a historical high of 20.5%. Judging from some published indicators, the increase in deposit rate is a response. inflation The cumulative effect of shrinking liquidity will gradually reflect the negative impact on the market and increase the difficulty of the upside. Inflation is expected to be controlled in the second half of the year.

The international market fundamentals, the US Department of agriculture statistics show that in the last week of March, US cotton sales decreased by 9.2% over the same period last year. Cotton prices in India have surged to a record high in recent days, and cotton growers' enthusiasm for planting cotton is soaring. The government of India will hold a meeting in April 21st to determine whether the number of cotton exports in India this year (September to August) will be further increased on the basis of the original 5 million 500 thousand packages (935 thousand tons). The conference will be attended by representatives from the Ministry of textiles, the Ministry of agriculture, the Ministry of trade and the Ministry of finance. In the past two weeks, the conference on the export of India has been postponed for two times. The Ministry of agriculture of India hopes that the government can increase the export volume of 1 million 500 thousand packets (255 thousand tons) of cotton. However, the Ministry of textile industry opposes this. They believe that increasing export volume will lead to a further rise in domestic cotton prices. The US Department of agriculture Counsellor's latest forecast shows that the cotton planting area in India will reach 187 million 500 thousand mu in 2011/12, with an average yield of 35.5 kg / mu, and the output of cotton will reach 5 million 944 thousand tons in the end. Analysts said that the current low demand and the dry weather in Texas made investors' divergence in cotton prices.