Exchange RMB Appreciation By Raising Export Tariff

　　 RMB An important reason for appreciation is that“ Trade Balance "and reject the excessive growth of foreign exchange reserves. However, it is a pity that the rigid appreciation of RMB and the appreciation of RMB require a series of domestic monetary tightening conditions. Therefore, it is very easy to form a vicious circle: the more RMB is appreciated, the more hot money will flow in, and the faster the growth of foreign exchange reserves will be, the more it is necessary to tighten the currency and force the RMB to appreciate further.

The most important thing is that the appreciation of RMB and the tightening of monetary conditions have put tremendous pressure on domestic enterprises. According to the PMI data in April, the cost pressure and currency pressure have already made it difficult for Chinese enterprises to bear heavy burdens. If they continue to do so, it is inevitable that China's economy will stall.

How to solve this vicious circle? There are ways. Reducing export tariff by means of structural increase exit And let the RMB exchange rate It is relatively stable, and even runs in the direction of depreciation.

So. First, it can avoid the tightening of domestic monetary policy, affect the normal operation of enterprises, avoid economic stall, and maintain employment; Second, we should increase fiscal revenue so that the increased revenue can be used for social security, strengthen national welfare and stimulate consumption growth; Third, as long as the import tariff does not increase, the purpose of reducing exports and expanding imports can also be achieved, as well as promoting trade balance and reducing foreign exchange reserves; Fourth, it can also achieve the goal of keeping Chinese goods cheap for foreigners.

One of the most critical benefits is that the stability of enterprise expectations increases. It is very difficult for enterprises to grasp the volatility of exchange rate. The use of hedging tools not only requires relevant technology, but also often outweighs the gain.

Pay attention to the fact that the increase of export tariff must be structural. We should increase the tax intensity of restricting export commodities, moderately raise the tariff of general and encouraging export commodities, and refuse China's cheap goods to subsidize foreigners. Now, the appreciation of RMB can't stop the cheap export caused by vicious competition among enterprises. Moreover, the more unstable the currency is, the stronger the expectation of appreciation is, and the more tense the currency is, the faster the turnover of goods and capital is, and the easier it is to sell them cheaply. This is another vicious circle.

Now things are very confusing. On the one hand, the government tries every possible means to stabilize exports, through the structural tax rate to reflect the export incentives for some industries, and to protect employment and total volume - that is to say, from the perspective of structural policy, export commodities are kept under pressure and treated differently; But on the other hand, the government allowed the RMB to appreciate continuously and suppressed all exports - that is, from the perspective of aggregate policy, all exports were suppressed.

This is the contradiction between structural policy and aggregate policy. Just as "one foot on the accelerator, one foot on the brake", the economic cost is huge. Therefore, I believe that structural adjustment must focus more on structural policies than on aggregate policies. Now, scholars and officials often say that RMB appreciation helps to upgrade the industry and helps to adjust the industrial structure. This is true, but "helping" is by no means a decisive measure. What's more, it should not turn the aggregate policy of exchange rate into a dependent path, which is against the basic common sense of economics. There is no doubt that if we want to adjust the structure, we have to rely more on tax policies and on structural policies.

Since we want to keep pressure on exports, since we are not willing to increase foreign exchange reserves by a large margin, we have no way to make domestic enterprises quickly integrate and become bigger and stronger, then we must have a way to achieve our goal at the same time. The structural increase of export tariff is far better than RMB appreciation because of its small side effects.

Successful cases include. For example, after the increase of export tariff of resource goods, the export of resource goods shrank immediately. After the introduction of the restrictive policy on rare earth export, the price of rare earth immediately soared, and the profits of Chinese rare earth companies immediately increased. Why don't we use such tactics to make the prices of our traditional export commodities such as clothes, shirts, shoes and hats, bags and bags rise rapidly, and at the same time, subsidize the wage income of employees in these industries?

In this way, we can win three wins for the country, the people and the enterprises. Of course, the sharp rise in the prices of China's bulk export commodities will inevitably affect the quantity of exports and the prices of purchasing countries. Of course, the appreciation of RMB is not the same effect? We can't help but transfer the raw material cost of our export enterprises, and subsidy after tax increase is the best way to transfer. Because, the ability of a single enterprise to transfer itself is limited or even powerless.

When necessary, the government should consider whether it can appropriately increase the export tariff and reduce the import tariff, so as to balance the trade and reduce the import cost of raw materials.