Viewing The Influence Of "Three Rates And Four Prices" On The Current Trend Of Foreign Trade From The Canton Fair

Since the beginning of this year, the world economy has continued to grow.

The 109th Canton Fair was the first Canton Fair to be held after the opening of 12th Five-Year.

The exhibition has a total area of 1 million 160 thousand square meters. A total of 24415 exhibitors inside and outside the country have reached a record high.

Our province organized 257 enterprises to participate in the exhibition, with 646 booths.

The Canton Fair has the following characteristics:

(1) the buyers' double increase in the meeting and export pactions.

As of May 4th, 207103 purchasers of the Canton Fair were from 209 countries and regions, an increase of 3.93% over the 108th session and a 1.52% increase over the 107th session.

Among them, the purchasers in Oceania increased by 11.96% over the previous session, the Americas grew by 9.76%, Asia increased by 8.75%, Africa decreased by 2.46%, and Europe decreased by 11.74%.

The current export volume was US $36 billion 860 million, an increase of 5.8% over the previous session, an increase of 7.5% over the previous session.

The total export volume of our province was 740 million US dollars, an increase of 20.5% over the previous session, an increase of 32.1% over the previous one.

The main products traded in our province are: daily ceramics traded for 197 million 580 thousand dollars, accounting for 26.7%, hardware tools traded for 84 million 300 thousand dollars, accounting for 11.4%, textile and garment clinch a deal of 79 million 400 thousand US dollars, accounting for 10.7%, machinery and equipment clinch a deal of 50 million 580 thousand dollars, 6.8%, footwear traded 32 million 600 thousand dollars, accounting for 4.4%.

(two) exhibitors and commodity structure are further optimized.

In recent years, with the continuous promotion of the structural adjustment work of our province in cultivating foreign trade entities, consolidating the industrial foundation and promoting industrial pformation and upgrading, the number of private and productive enterprises has gradually increased, and the proportion of pactions has been increasing.

This Canton Fair, a total of 532 million 820 thousand US dollars in private enterprises, accounted for 72%, an increase of 4 percentage points over the previous session, and a total turnover of 473 million 600 thousand US dollars in manufacturing enterprises, accounting for 64%, an increase of 7.4 percentage points over the previous session.

In addition, the level of exhibitors in our province has gradually increased, and more than half of the enterprises have launched new products.

Among them, Schindler Technology Group Limited by Share Ltd launched a new energy saving product specially designed for the rural market which combines cooking, water heating and heating functions. Zhongke Hengyuan Polytron Technologies Inc has launched new wind energy products, and Changsha Broad Air Conditioner Co has launched a series of new home appliance products independently developed, which are well received by merchants.

The competitiveness of the brand products in our province has also been greatly improved, with a total turnover of 278 million 240 thousand US dollars, accounting for 37.6%, which is 7.6 percentage points higher than the previous one.

(three) more short and medium term orders and less long-term orders.

According to the General Assembly statistics, although the purchasers' orders are more active, the short and medium term orders in the six months are about 90%, and the long-term orders are only 10%.

Enterprises in our province reflect that export enterprises are afraid to take long orders because of the constant increase in product costs and the substantial appreciation of the renminbi.

From the point of view of buyers, because the world economy has not yet fully recovered and the market demand is relatively weak, buyers still have doubts about the future market, and the order is also more cautious.

(four) the number of merchants in Japan and the Middle East has decreased significantly.

At the Guangzhou Fair, due to the impact of the earthquake in Japan, the visitors declined by 9.96% than the previous one; the Middle East region was affected by the turbulence situation, and the visitors dropped by 1.53% than the previous one.

The ASEAN and BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa) have increased by 21.4% to the visitors.

(five) the "three rate four price" has become the biggest worry for enterprises.

Since the beginning of this year, the RMB exchange rate has continued to rise, interest rates on deposits and loans have been rising, and the export tax rebate rate is expected to be down sharply. The problem of "three rate and four price" has become the biggest problem facing foreign trade enterprises.

Most exhibitors are facing difficulties in raising the price of products, and they are afraid to pick up the prices.

Two, the influence of "three rates and four prices" on the current foreign trade

Although the "three rate four price" is not a new problem, but this year, the "three rate four price" impact on foreign trade is even more prominent. Even in the eyes of many foreign trade people, "three rate four price" has become the most critical factor in determining the trend of foreign trade this year.

(1) the RMB exchange rate has gone up in turmoil.

In 2010, the appreciation rate of RMB against the US dollar was 3.1%.

Entering the 2011, although China has been trying to stabilize the RMB exchange rate and slow down the pace of RMB appreciation, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has risen from 663.49 at the beginning of the year to 649.9 in April 29th, breaking through the 6.5 yuan pass for the first time, with an increase of more than 2%.

This year's Canton Fair textile, shoes and hats and other labor-intensive exhibitors have said that the renminbi appreciation of a point, the profits of enterprises will drop a point, the appreciation of the renminbi has increased the pressure on enterprises, and the enterprises that do not make more money are more and more.

Although RMB has entered a long-term appreciation channel, it has become a common understanding, but Chinese enterprises accustomed to low price competition need a longer adaptation process.

Only through customers, factories and traders to share the risk of exchange rate changes, minimize losses as far as possible.

(two) financing difficulties and increasing costs.

In order to curb inflation, China's monetary policy has shifted from moderate easing to steady improvement since the beginning of this year. The central bank has raised the benchmark deposit and lending rate for 2 times and raised the deposit reserve ratio for the 4 time. This has increased the financing cost of enterprises and raised the financing threshold gradually.

Exhibitors at the Guangzhou fair show that the interest pressure on loans is relatively high, and the price index remains high. The possibility of further raising interest rates is very large. Enterprises are more prudent in long-term loans.

In addition, because banks have reduced the scale of lending, small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises with insufficient collateral have become increasingly difficult to borrow from banks, and some enterprises have difficulty in capital turnover.

(three) the expected reduction of export tax rebate rate for some products is expected.

The export tax rebate rate is a flexible tax rate. With the acceleration of the structural adjustment of foreign trade, the voice of lowering the tax rebate rate of some products gradually rises.

Although the export tax rebate policy has been basically stable this year, it has played a positive role in stabilizing enterprise expectations.

However, this year, we will continue to apply policies and measures related to export tax rebates, further support the adjustment and optimization of the structure of export products, continue to promote the export of mechanical and electrical products and products with superior characteristics, and strictly control the export of products with high energy consumption and high pollution.

At present, the possibility of reducing the tax rebate rate of resource products and labor-intensive products is greater, and the pressure of such enterprises will be greater.

According to garment enterprises, if garment export tax rebates are reduced from 16% to 11%, most garment enterprises will become "negative profits".

(four) the sharp rise in raw materials and crude oil prices has pushed up the cost of enterprises.

Since the second half of last year, the price of bulk commodities and most of the raw materials in the world, such as crude oil, cotton and non-ferrous metals, has risen significantly, making the cost of China's products greatly increased.

Raw material prices generally account for about 60% of the cost of products. According to the exhibitors of Canton Fair, since the second half of last year, the price of raw materials has increased the cost of products by more than 30%. Especially, the cost of raw materials, such as non-ferrous metals, cotton, agricultural and sideline products, has risen by 50%.

The rise in crude oil prices not only increases the cost of production and oil and gas, but also increases the cost of logistics. Moreover, raw materials such as paints, rubber and other raw materials have risen sharply, pushing up the cost of enterprises.

Judging from the current situation, there will still be higher inflation in the global and Chinese economy in the coming period. The price of raw materials and crude oil will further increase. The production cost of our products will further increase, and the competitiveness will be more affected.

(five) recruitment difficulties, unstable employees and rising labor costs.

This year, the problem of recruiting workers is very difficult. Many rural labors prefer to stay at home rather than go to work in factories.

Even if they enter the factory, they will be unstable.

In order to recruit workers, workers have to compete to raise wages and improve the working environment, so that the cost of labor and labor continues to climb. The share of labor costs in total production costs is nearly 30%.

The exhibitors at the Guangzhou fair show that the current wage level of workers has nearly doubled compared with the first half of last year, but some enterprises are still unable to recruit suitable workers.

Recruitment difficulties, labor instability, high cost of employment is also an important reason why enterprises dare not take longer orders.

(six) it is difficult for enterprises to raise export prices.

At present, the world economy has not yet fully recovered, and the cost of production in our neighboring countries is relatively low. The price of products is the most sensitive factor, and enterprises are very cautious about this.

The exhibitors of the Guangzhou fair show that although the overall cost of the products has increased by 30%-50% (of which raw materials and crude oil prices are rising, the appreciation of the renminbi and the contribution of labor costs to the overall cost increase is about 2:2:1), the quoted price has increased by only about 15%-20%, and the rest of the whole enterprise must be digested internally.

In addition, because of the dramatic changes in the RMB exchange rate, raw material prices and crude oil prices, it is difficult for export enterprises to make quotations.

If the high customer does not agree, it is also afraid of the loss of customers, and the loss is low. The enterprise is in a dilemma and has a great impact on the export orders.

Three, the general trend of current foreign trade.

This year, the international economy has further recovered, and the domestic economy has maintained steady and rapid development. The domestic and foreign environment of China's foreign trade development has further improved.

According to the prediction of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the world economy will continue to maintain a growth rate of over 4% this year. The emerging markets and developing countries will continue to maintain rapid growth, and the developed countries will gradually enter the normal development track.

In the first quarter, China's foreign trade increased by 26.5% and imports increased by 32.6%.

The Canton Fair is a barometer of China's foreign trade. The current Canton Fair has increased its number of visitors to business, and the turnover has increased. This indicates that the demand for the international market is further warmer.

Most of the exhibitors in our province think that the overall situation of foreign trade is better than last year, and more than half of enterprises expect annual export growth to be around 20%.

However, in the overall improvement of the foreign trade situation, there are still more uncertainties and uncertainties affecting foreign trade.

From the external environment, global inflation is likely to further intensify, and international commodity prices will continue to rise. European and American countries are still burdened with heavy debt burden and budget deficits. Japan's earthquake has a great impact on the global supply chain, and Global trade protectionism will rise and other factors will have an adverse impact on China's foreign trade.

From the internal environment, the prices of raw materials continue to rise, recruitment difficulties and labor costs continue to increase, the liquidity of enterprises is tight, the cost of financing is increased, the pressure of RMB appreciation is greater, and other factors will continue to perplex the operation of foreign trade enterprises.

Considering all kinds of factors, China's foreign trade and import and export will continue to develop steadily this year, but the growth rate may be slightly lower than in 2010.

From the analysis of the operation of the first quarter, the trend of foreign trade in our province is better than the national average this year.

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Four, suggestions for enterprises to deal with the "three rate four price" effect

From the current situation, the impact of "three rate four price" on China's foreign trade will be a longer-term process.

Foreign trade enterprises should take the initiative to adapt to accelerate the pformation and upgrading of foreign trade, get rid of the low price competition mode, and seek new development space.

From the perspective of industry chain, the profit of industrial chain presents a "V" shape curve.

At the other end of the curve, one is R & D and design, the other is sales and service, and the other is processing and manufacturing.

China's foreign trade enterprises mainly focus on processing and manufacturing, fierce competition and low profits.

In order to achieve the upgrading and pformation of foreign trade, enterprises should gradually develop towards the "V" curve and seek high added value in the industrial chain.

(1) actively innovate and advocate differential competition.

Our products have strong homogeneity with emerging economies, raising export prices, making it difficult for most customers to accept, resulting in the loss of some orders.

Only by actively developing new products and leading the market through new products can enterprises get rid of fierce market competition and gain more profits.

At this Canton Fair, Hunan Hualian ceramic Limited by Share Ltd and Hunan port Peng Industrial Co., Ltd., through improving the quality of raw materials, improving the technology and management level, improving product packaging and design, launched many new products and special products, re established their competitive advantages and took the initiative in the paction.

The profit margin of newly developed daily ceramic products of Hunan Hualian ceramic Limited by Share Ltd keeps at around 18%-25%, much higher than the average profit level of Liling daily ceramic products.

(two) ensure quality and enhance market positioning.

Affected by the sharp rise in cotton prices, the cost of domestic textile enterprises has increased substantially. Most textile enterprises at Canton Fair are facing a dilemma: raising prices has the risk of losing customers, and without raising prices, protecting customers means loss of profits or even losses.

However, the Hunan Meng Jie home textile Limited by Share Ltd had a good deal on the Canton Fair. Two orders were received on the first day of the exhibition, and the export volume of the company increased by 97% in the first quarter.

The company's products are mainly located in developed countries such as Europe and the United States, with good quality and high quoted prices. Customers in other developing countries are often deterred.

Although there are not many orders in the past Canton Fair, the company has always adhered to its marketing strategy.

At the Guangzhou Fair, when other industry companies were forced to raise their quotations, the company relied on the high quality image set up over the years to win the favor of customers.

(three) promoting exports with brand and enhancing core competitiveness

OEM can quickly receive orders, but developing independent brands and enhancing core competitiveness is the way out for enterprises.

Hunan Bobcats cartoon Co., Ltd. adheres to the cultivation of its own brand, and develops the brand value development mode by brand driving export and cultural export, export and cultural output. Through the external output of "Bobcats Jim" animated cartoon, it expands the influence of "lynx Jim" brand in the international market, thus promoting the export of "lynx Jim" derivative products.

At this fair, the Hunan cartoon products Co., Ltd. animation brand "Bobcats Jim" and its children's bags, cutlery and other derivatives have been highly concerned by buyers.

At present, the "Bobcats Jim" series of animation has been exported to more than 50 countries and regions. All the products of the company are exported to their own "lynx Jim" brand, and the export prices and profits are much higher than those of the OEM export products.

(four) stabilize the workforce and create an enterprise culture.

People are the most important resources of enterprises. The loss of key staff members or the massive turnover of ordinary employees in the short term will not only cause losses to the current work of enterprises, but also affect the working atmosphere of the whole company, form a chain reaction and produce many negative effects.

Nowadays, employees and enterprises are no longer just a simple exchange of labor and money. Apart from making a living, the more important thing is to get the sense of belonging of the "business owners".

Therefore, enterprises should create healthy corporate culture, form a standardized management system, establish a fair and reasonable incentive system, enhance cohesion, and provide good prospects for employees while enhancing staff salaries and improving the working environment.