Cotton Enterprises Stop Production &Nbsp; Speculators Rush To Flee &Nbsp; High Cotton Prices Shake Off A Chicken Feather.

The tango dance that the price jumps out still makes the whole dance. Cotton spinning The industrial chain was seriously injured. Cotton prices rise, cotton enterprises worry. Cotton price Fall, Cotton enterprises The days are even worse.

Last October, when reporters went to Akesu, Xinjiang, the main cotton producing area in China to interview the riddle of cotton inflation, cotton mills, spinning mills and garment factories all said they did not earn money other than cotton growers. After the surge last year, after the Spring Festival, cotton fell from 34870 yuan / ton in February 17th to the lowest 24130 yuan / ton in May 12th, the largest decline of more than 30%. After the cotton price dive, the cotton that had both supply and demand suddenly became unnoticed. Many spinning, weaving and garment enterprises took the lead in limiting production and shutting down production.

Hail, heavy snow, torrential rain... This weather frequently visited our cotton planting base in Xinjiang this month.

"As soon as I heard of hail, I was afraid that if I was hit by hail, the cotton would be destroyed." Peng Shi Wei, a big cotton farmer in Akesu, has planted 3000 mu of cotton this year. Fortunately, he had avoided a hail disaster last week.

At 18 o'clock in May 20th, heavy rain occurred in the rural area of Kai Lang in Akesu, Xinjiang, and a large number of hailstones with a diameter of about 1 cm were carried. More than 95% of cotton in Kai Lang township are bare cotton poles after hail. According to statistics, the area of the affected cotton fields reached 36000 mu, resulting in a direct loss of 10 million 639 thousand yuan. Kai Lang County, Kai Lang County, next to baichegmann Township, hail is only 2 kilometers away from Peng Shi Wei's farmland.

However, Peng Shi Wei is worried about hail and blizzard. What worries him most is how much cotton purchase price will be this year. He has never surfed the Internet before, and will also look at the futures cotton prices of the Zhengzhou commodity futures exchange. His expected cotton price is about 1 yuan lower than last year's kilogram.

Even according to 2000 yuan per mu of cotton yield, Peng Shi Wei last year, 3000 mu of cotton income also exceeded 6 million yuan. This year he still planted 3000 mu of cotton, but the cost increased by more than 30% over last year.

Located in the river bank of Akesu, the town of Ku Mu Bashi is the hometown of long staple cotton in China. The cotton planting area of the whole Township reaches 73 thousand mu. At 3 o'clock yesterday afternoon, the reporter contacted Zhang Pingshi, deputy head of the town of Ku Mu Bashi, who was watching the seedling in the cotton field. Zhang Ping said that cotton purchase price was high last year, the output value of cotton per mu was around 2700 yuan, and cotton farmers' enthusiasm for planting cotton has been unprecedentedly high this year. Last month, the Akesu river flooded, flooded some Gobi, and some farmers leveled the Gobi and planted cotton.

If the weather is normal, the cotton output in Akesu will be basically flat this year, and the output will increase by about 5%.

"Now spinning out of cotton yarn, warehouse can not be put down, and some directly placed in the workshop, a ton loss of 3000 yuan to sell, no one came to the list." Mr. Zheng is the chairman of a cotton mill in Akesu. He has just been to the Canton Fair and has not received an order.

Last October, when reporters rushed to Akesu to visit the riddle of cotton inflation, cotton futures contract CF1109 was still around 23000 yuan / ton, and then rose to 33000 yuan / ton in the early November of that year. After adjustment, the price of 34870 yuan / ton was set at 17 on February this year. The factory price of cotton yarn also went on the market, breaking through 38000 yuan per ton. Because of their lucrative profits, they also work at full capacity.

But before and after the Spring Festival this year, cotton prices began to fall, and once fell to 24130 yuan / ton. "Our seed cotton purchase price is about 27 thousand yuan per ton, and after all kinds of expenses, the cost of 32 spinning costs is 34 thousand yuan. Now the market price is only 31 thousand yuan, and it loses two thousand or three thousand per production 1 tons." According to yesterday's closing price, the price of quality cotton of Zhengjiao exchange is only 25220 yuan / ton, which is 1500 yuan lower than their purchase price per ton.

Mr. Zheng has just returned from the Canton Fair, giving him the feeling that it is more difficult now than the 2008 financial crisis. "Garment factories dare not take long orders, only receive short lists, profits are very low, spinning demand is very weak." He began to stop some machines last month.

In the past, the international competitiveness of Chinese cotton textiles was very strong, and export driven cotton yarn demand. But now the clothing orders from abroad began to decrease. The cotton yarn of Vietnam and India, because of the low labor cost and low production cost, are about 1000 yuan lower than the price in China.

Last year's high cotton prices were not only troubled by cotton textile enterprises in Xinjiang, but also in Dezhou, Liaocheng and other places in Shandong. Cotton purchase price was almost one day, and seed cotton prices dropped to 4 yuan in May 20th. In early May, the price was still 4.8 yuan / Jin, and 20 days fell 20%. Despite the fall in cotton prices, the purchasing intention of cotton enterprises is still not strong. Many textile enterprises still have many cotton prices which have been surged during the past year, and cotton prices have dropped once every time, and their losses are even more.

The huge fluctuation of cotton prices has put the whole market in an awkward position: textile enterprises are difficult to sell cotton yarn, unwilling to buy lint, and some enterprises limit production or stop production; cotton processing enterprises are afraid that cotton prices will continue to fall and they are unwilling to buy cotton.

According to the statistics of Shandong Textile Industry Association, due to the unprecedented huge fluctuations of raw material market, Shandong cotton spinning enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, are in great difficulties. Some enterprises are in a state of stop production and limit production. Insiders said that the textile industry itself had some deep-seated contradictions. It is mainly manifested in the weak ability of independent innovation. Clothing is basically based on OEM processing, and low processing fees are made by the growth of quantity. The small profits of textile enterprises are so fragile in the face of changes in cotton prices.

Last year, many research institutes quoted the data of China's cotton supply and demand gap exceeding 1 million tons, which is also a big basis for cotton futures to break through 34000 yuan / ton. But what led to such a reversal?

"Speculative demand has turned into speculative supply, which has led to a reversal of supply and demand." Yongan futures cotton analyst Kuang Bo told reporters that many cotton circulation enterprises were afraid of soaring cotton prices last year and were involved in the campaign of hoarding cotton last year. However, after the fall in cotton prices and weak demand this year, many enterprises have thrown up the "means of production" that has been hoarded, which has led to a reversal of the relationship between supply and demand of cotton.

Kuang Bo believes that the main reason for the fall in cotton prices after the Spring Festival is that the state has introduced inflation control policies to curb the rise in cotton prices. The latest blow to the textile industry is that the export tax rebate rate may be reduced from 16% to 11%. If it becomes a reality, it will add even worse to the original textile enterprises. Because of the demand of domestic textile enterprises, China's cotton imports also show a downward trend. According to statistics, China imported 62 thousand and 500 tons of cotton yarn in April, a decrease of 39% over the same period last year, a decrease of 29% in the ring ratio, and a decrease of 47 thousand and 600 tons in export cotton yarn, a decrease of 10% over the same period last year, and a reduction of 19% in the ring ratio.

After a 30% decline, what will be the future of cotton prices? Kuang Bo said that the US Department of agriculture (USDA) reported in the weekly crop growth report that by the week May 22nd, the cotton planting rate in the United States was 57%, compared with 42% in the previous week, 59% in the same period last year, and 61% in the five year. The United States cotton is the main source of China's imports of cotton, accounting for 7 of China's cotton imports, the United States planting progress has lagged behind the constant value, will stabilize the world cotton prices.

"I think the current position should be the low level area of cotton, which may oscillate upward in the future." Yesterday, a Zhejiang textile enterprise asked Kuang Bo, where can buy first grade cotton, because they have received a large foreign orders, need high quality cotton. Kuang Bo believes that this is a signal to enhance the textile industry, in the current textile industry chain is mainly cotton yarn inventory is low, cotton and cotton cloth inventory is less, so textile enterprises for the autumn season, there is still demand for procurement in the later stage.

On the exchange's list of cotton holdings, Zhejiang Yongan yesterday held more than 3340 hands and many orders, holding a total of 30988 hands and more orders. In addition, Zhejiang earth, Nanhua futures and other Zhejiang Futures Company held more than single list in the top 6, indicating that Zhejiang's capital is still optimistic about the future of cotton.