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China'S Demographic Dividend Either Disappeared In 2013.

2011/6/15 11:41:00 78

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For those who live in the "least developed countries",

Labor shortage

"This term was once so fresh that even when the" labor shortage "first appeared in the coastal areas in 2004, many people were surprised. Experts and scholars have been debating whether the" turning point of Lewis "is coming.

But by 2011, most Chinese have accepted the reality that "Lewis turning point" has arrived. China's demographic dividend will soon disappear in 12th Five-Year.

Zhai Zhenwu, vice president of the China Population Association, told the reporter.

The 12th Five-Year

During the period, the proportion of the working age population in China between 15 and 59 will reach the highest point, then slow down.

Correspondingly, the demographic dividend will also disappear in the "12th Five-Year" period.

Cai Fang, director of the Institute of population and labor economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, judged that with the increase of aging, the dependency ratio will drop to the lowest level in 2013 or 2015. After that, the ratio of elderly dependency will rise rapidly and the total dependency ratio will rise.

By then, the demographic dividend will disappear.

The sixth national census bulletin shows that 0 to 14 years old population accounts for 16.60%, 15 to 59 years old population accounts for 70.14%, and 60 and over population account for 13.26%.

According to this calculation, China's population dependency ratio is around 0.34, which is still in a downward path since 1964.

But this decline can only last until around 2013.

After 2013, due to the accelerated aging of the population, the ratio of elderly dependency increased rapidly and exceeded the child dependency ratio at absolute level, making the total dependency ratio begin to turn second points.

In terms of demography, the dependency ratio refers to the ratio of the children (0 to 14 years old) with the elderly population (65 years old and above) and the working age population (15 - 64 years old).

Demographic law shows that the age structure of population will change from the high and low age type of high person mouth dependency ratio to the low child dependency ratio of low and low aged type, and then to the three different stages of high person mouth dependency ratio of low and high aged.

In the second stage, the population pition period is usually referred to as the demographic dividend period because of the high proportion of working age population, low population burden, strong population productivity and high social savings rate.

Cai Fang stressed that it is not the absolute level of population dependency ratio, but the change of population dependency ratio (decline or rise) determines the demographic dividend.

The labor shortage in China is based on population structure. It is neither a structural shortage nor a temporary shortage. It is an inevitable phenomenon of economy and population.

demographic dividend

The disappearance will make the labor shortage even more serious.

Cai predicts that by 2015, the negative increment of rural areas will be equal to the positive increment of cities, and the net increase of the working age population will be zero. After that, the number of working age population in China will be reduced, and the shortage of labor will be more serious.

Jia Kang, director of the Finance Department of the Ministry of finance, also believes that the situation of surplus labor supply has been changed. The pressure of rising labor costs is very obvious, and it is increasing rapidly at an unparalleled speed.