The Textile Industry "Crisis" And "Machine" Coexist &Nbsp; Cotton Medium Or Current Machine.

Because this year's International

In the international cotton market under the influence of a sharp decline, the domestic cotton market shock down, forward contract CF1201 test of 23500 yuan / ton area support.

In addition, the cotton market in the spot market is sluggish, and the yarn price has gradually declined, and the cotton market has been permeating the air. However, the author believes that: because the overall supply and demand situation of the international cotton market is still tight this year, the domestic cotton in the new year will be affected by the grain and cotton competition and the increase of planting costs. The short-term market adjustment space is relatively limited. On the contrary, with the gradual improvement of consumption, the global commodity market brought by the weak dollar will be at a high level, which will bring a "lift up" to the sluggish cotton price and a better buying opportunity in the middle term.

The bulk market is at a high level.

In June 14th, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the May economic data, CPI reached a new high, reaching 5.5%, a year-on-year increase, the highest in the past 34 months.

Since May, the rare drought in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the subsequent droughts and floods have led to a sharp rise in prices of vegetables and fruits. At the same time, the price of meat and eggs continues to rise, so the price of food in May has increased by 11.7% compared with the same period last year, and the contribution to CPI has reached 63.6%.

The price of domestic agricultural products is also affected by this effect. Besides cotton prices falling more than 25% compared with the beginning of the year, other sugar, beans and oils have less than 10% callbacks. All these indicate that under the condition of excess liquidity, the expectation of inflation and the tight supply of agricultural products have always kept prices in a strong position.

This year, in order to curb the adverse effects of high inflation on the economy, the state has raised the deposit reserve ratio and interest rate many times during the year.

Up to now, the deposit reserve ratio of large financial institutions reached 21.5 percentage points, and the one-year deposit and loan interest rate was as high as 3.25%.

From the performance of the real economy and commodity market, we can say that the macroeconomic regulation and control policy has achieved certain results, and the trend of excessive price rise in the early stage has been restrained to a certain extent.

However, Sheng Lai Yun, a spokesman for the National Bureau of statistics, said: "we must remain vigilant against the price situation.

Judging from the current and future period, the pressure of price rise is still relatively large. "

There are two main reasons for the long-term high position of commodities, especially agricultural products. First, the import inflation caused by the increase in import costs is unavoidable; two, the increase in domestic labor costs has led to the increase of planting costs, and the frequent disastrous climate has led to uncertainty in output and intensified worries about the shortage of agricultural products such as cotton, while relatively loose monetary policy is likely to ignite much enthusiasm.

Therefore, even if the state strengthens macro-control efforts and tightens monetary policy, the commodity market will remain strong.

Supply and demand remain tight in the global cotton market

In June 10th, the monthly cotton market report released by the US Department of agriculture (USDA) predicted that the world's cotton production in June 10th will be 24 million 883 thousand tons, 68 thousand tons less than in May, consumption of 25 million 150 thousand tons, reduction of 218 thousand tons, import and export volume of 7 million 820 thousand tons, reduction of 230 thousand tons, final inventory 9 million 415 thousand tons, 158 thousand tons increase, and inventory consumption ratio of 37.4%.

In terms of 2011/12 data, it is estimated that the new year's output will be 26 million 947 thousand tons, 208 thousand tons reduction, 25 million 899 thousand tons of consumption, 120 thousand tons reduction, 8 million 580 thousand tons of import and export volume, 98 thousand tons reduction, 10 million 506 thousand tons of final inventory, 71 thousand tons increase, and the inventory consumption ratio up to 40.57%.

Under the stimulation of high cotton prices, there has been an increasing trend of planting area in the global cotton market this year.

However, due to the unusual drought in the main producing country of the United States since May of this year, the United States in the June report lowered the 2011/12 cotton production in the United States.

In the early June, there was a continuous drought in most of the cotton belt in the south.

The US cotton production in 2011/12 is currently estimated at 17 million packs, compared with 1 million packages in early May, because the increased planting area will be partly offset by drought reduction.

If Dezhou accounts for half of the American planting area, due to severe local drought, rainfall in this year is much lower than that in previous years, which will directly affect future output.

And the supply of the global cotton market is greatly dependent on the increase in cotton production. This year, China expects to spend about 10 million 500 thousand tons of ~1100 tons or so, according to the 2010/11 annual output of 5 million 940 thousand tons (even if calculated according to the 6 million 540 thousand tons of optimistic data released by the China Cotton Association). In the same period, it imports nearly 3 million tons, and the national reserve link is about 600 thousand tons, plus PTA replacing 1 million tons for cotton. The end of 2011/12 will end within 1 million 500 thousand tons, and the overall inventory consumption ratio is less than 15%.

Once the US cotton output has not reached the expected 17 million package due to drought, India will continue to restrict cotton exports this year, so the gap between supply and demand of cotton in China will become more prominent.

Even if the global cotton production becomes a reality, because domestic cotton prices differ greatly from international market prices, the import discount of nearly 4000 yuan will also make traders reluctant to import.

High cost support cotton price high operation

Although according to economic theory, excessive prices will stimulate cotton production and production. However, due to the loss of labor in cotton planting and the impact of grain and cotton competition, the actual cotton planting area has increased by a limited margin.

According to the statistics of China Cotton Association, as of the end of May, the cotton planting area increased by 4.9% in the same period last year, which is 0.9% higher than that in April. However, the area of intention was reduced compared with that in March, when the intention area for cotton planting increased by 7.8% in the year of 2011.

Since March, domestic cotton prices began to shake down, and the survey by relevant agencies showed that the increase in cotton planting area caused by price increases was less than that caused by falling cotton prices.

Therefore, with the fall in cotton prices, the minimum protective prices of corn and rice are rising during the same period, and farmers' enthusiasm for planting large quantities of cotton is contusions.

The monitoring data of China Cotton Association show that planting situation is not optimistic.

Judging from the cotton growth in May, the emergence of cotton in the whole country is relatively good, and the overall development of cotton is good.

However, since May this year, the drought in the South and the droughts and droughts of the subsequent drought still have a certain effect on the growth of cotton in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The overall emergence period is nearly 10 days later than in previous years, and the seedling development is affected.

In some areas, cotton growth is affected by diseases and insect pests. The main diseases are Fusarium Wilt and seedling disease. Although it only accounts for more than 12% of the total area, cotton production also has a certain impact. The main pests are cotton aphids and so on. The overall impact is limited.

The total cost of cotton planting is increasing this year.

Despite the rise in labor costs, the price of agricultural products has increased significantly this year.

The overall price of agricultural products showed an upward trend, including agricultural film, diesel oil, urea, SSP, KCl, and compound fertilizers.

According to rough estimates, the cost of agricultural materials per mu of cotton fields rose by 80~120 yuan. According to the calculation of 500 kg seed cotton, the seed cotton per catty costs 0.2 yuan / Jin.

According to the annual cost of planting 1200 yuan per mu in the past year, the price of seed cotton purchase is 2.6 yuan / kg, and the cotton field per acre will cost 30 days ~45 days. If the labor cost is 45 yuan per day, the cost will be around 1500 yuan.

Because the rural cotton is basically the elderly and the women, the wage is reasonable according to the 30 yuan calculation and the labor cost is about 1000 yuan. If the price is lower, the cotton growers will not have high enthusiasm for planting cotton, so the cost of seed cotton per catty will be around 4.6 yuan / Jin.

The state has issued a minimum purchase price of 19800 yuan / ton, or about 4.2 yuan / kg of seed cotton, which is basically the bottom line of farmers unwilling to breed.

If the weather is smooth, the cotton will grow smoothly. The profit of an acre cotton field will be around 800 yuan. Most farmers (middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River) have only 3~4 mu of land. Some of them will grow rice to satisfy their own consumption, and the others will depend on cotton for 2500~3000 yuan.

If the family member chooses to work nearby and earn more than 100 yuan per day, only 30 days' work is needed, and 3 mu of cotton field will cost 100 workers.

Therefore, from this year's cost of planting and labor costs, cotton prices fell to 23500 yuan / ton after the callback space is limited.

The "danger" and "machine" exist in the textile industry.

In 2010, China's cotton textile industry, like the world's textile industry, made a very good profit in history.

But the sharp rise in cotton raw material prices has gradually engulfed corporate profits from the end of the year.

According to the statistics of China Cotton Textile Industry Association, by the end of 2010, the whole society had 120 million ingots.

According to the announcement of the National Bureau of statistics, the output of yarn is 27 million 170 thousand tons in 2010, and the output of cloth is 80 billion meters.

Under the vigorous demand of spinning, the consumption demand of cotton increased steadily. In 2010, the market estimated that it would consume about 10 million 500 thousand tons a year.

But since May this year, China's textile industry began to show its embarrassment in the high cotton prices.

With the high cost of cotton and the decline of exports, the price of yarn has dropped considerably. Compared to March June, the price of yarn has dropped by 20%, and the price of cloth has dropped by nearly 17%.

Before the Spring Festival, the rise of cotton prices stimulated many textile mills to increase procurement and inventory of cotton. After March, cotton prices plummeted, resulting in heavy inventory losses, which seriously affected the market confidence of cotton textile enterprises. Therefore, they had a strong sense of short-term wait-and-see and cautious procurement.

The loans issued by the agricultural development bank to cotton enterprises will expire before the end of June, and some shipments will have a strong desire to ship. In the absence of procurement demand, the short-term market demand will not flourish. This is also the main reason for maintaining a weak and weak pattern.

The slowdown in domestic demand has led to a decline in import cotton. Besides the upside down cost of imports, market demand deceleration is also an important factor.

In May, China's import and export growth slowed sharply. In May, exports and imports grew by 19.4% and 28.4% compared with the same period last year, down 29% and 19.9% respectively from the same period last year.

Textile and garment exports increased by 12.8% in May compared with April.

Closely related to cotton, imports in May were 144 thousand and 500 tons, down 27% from the same period last year, down 31% from the same month, and the number of imports decreased continuously for three consecutive months since March of this year.

However, with the reduction of imports and the annual domestic demand exceeding 10 million tons, the shortage of supply and demand has led to a reasonable recovery of prices.

In addition, although China's economy is slowing down under the macroeconomic regulation and control, the economic growth is over 8.5%.

In the first quarter of this year, China's industrial output value above designated size increased by 32%, and the total volume of all major products increased by more than 10%. Exports increased by 24%, consumption increased by 23%, investment increased by 38%, and economic efficiency increased by 54%. These main economic indicators all reflected a good start in the first quarter of this year.

The steady growth of the economy brings more vitality and opportunities to the growth of demand.

Crude oil prices remain high, PTA and other bottom supporting cotton prices.

In the tense situation of the weak dollar and the Middle East and North Africa, the price of crude oil is at a high level. Despite the recent collapse of about $95, crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate between 90~110 and the summer hurricane season.

Crude oil prices are relatively strong, so that the PTA products fell sharply in the vicinity of 9200 yuan concussion; as PTA stabilized and picked up, and other sugar products such as sugar prices rise, let cotton bulls see the dawn of the mid-term rebound.

To sum up, although cotton has been running in a downward channel since March, the downturn in spot prices and the falling price of yarn are the immediate realities.

But we can see through the fog that the global cotton market in 2011/12 will continue to be a tight supply and demand pattern. The domestic cotton planting cost will be increased and the output of crops will not be effectively guaranteed. Domestic consumption demand is expected to recover faster in the second half of this year. At the same time, India may continue to set limits on exports in the current year. These pessimistic and bearish markets will be irrational.

Conversely, buying and holding forward contracts is a good investment opportunity when cotton prices fall to production costs and low price areas.