Fu Four Links: Domestic And Foreign Demand See &Nbsp; American Cotton End Inventory Increase

July 6th, the United States Fu four links The company released the US monthly report for USDA7. Cotton market Looking ahead, overall, the current and next year US cotton supply They are slightly relaxed and end of term. Stock Look at the increase. The specific forecast data are as follows:

　　 2010/11 year

　　 yield And the United States Ministry of Agriculture (USDA) the forecast for the first 3 months was flat, at 3 million 940 thousand tons.

Export volume: decline in cotton prices and Asia Textile mill A large backlog of yarn inventories is expected this year. Cotton export The quantity is 3 million 210 thousand tons, and the ratio is reduced by 54 thousand tons.

Consumption: as of May, the total cotton consumption in the United States this year is equivalent to only 806 thousand tons of cotton per year, lower than the 827 thousand tons forecast in the USDA6 monthly report. Therefore, it is estimated that USDA will be lowered by 10 thousand tons to 817 thousand tons in the July monthly report.

Final inventory: in the aggregate, it is estimated that the end of the US cotton end inventory will increase to 555 thousand tons this year, and the inventory consumption ratio will also rise to 13.8%, or the highest record in nearly 9 months. Affected by this, cotton futures prices may be under pressure in recent months.

　　 2011/12 year

Yield: Although most of the cotton in the United States is only in the early stage of Bolling, the continuous drought in Texas, Georgia and Florida and the continued low temperature in California will pose a threat to cotton production. Therefore, 2011/12 cotton production is expected to be 3 million 484 thousand tons in the year and 218 thousand tons lower than that in the central region.

Consumption: considering the uncertainty of cotton price in the later period and the inventory of cotton yarn in textile mills, consumption is expected to be reduced to 805 thousand tons.

Export volume: the export volume of Australia cotton, Brazil cotton and India cotton will be increased. It is estimated that the export volume of US cotton will be 2 million 612 thousand tons and that of the cotton market will be reduced by 218 thousand tons.

Final inventory: as the initial inventory increased by 65 thousand tons and the consumption volume decreased by 22 thousand tons, the end of the US cotton end inventory will increase by 87 thousand tons to 631 thousand tons. The average annual cotton price is expected to be below 146 cents / pound (average cotton price this year).