China's Latest Economic Data To Clarify Future Macroeconomic Policy Pattern

In July 14th, the Chinese financial network published an article by the independent think tank, China's ampong consulting research headquarters. What is the latest economic data in China?

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The excerpts are as follows:

Under the spotlight, China's National Bureau of Statistics announced China in the first half of the year.

In terms of investment, fixed assets investment in the first half of this year was 124567 billion yuan, an increase of 25.6% over the same period last year, and maintained a relatively fast growth rate of investment.

It is worth noting that in the first half of this year, real estate investment grew faster, and China's real estate development investment amounted to 26250 billion yuan, up 32.9% over the same period.

Among them, residential investment 18641 billion yuan, an increase of 36.1%.

In the first half of this year, the added value of above scale industries increased by 14.3%.

In terms of price, consumer prices (CPI) rose 5.4% in the first half of the year, of which CPI reached 6.4% in June, and the producer price (PPI) of industrial producers rose 7% in the first half year.

In terms of residents' income, the per capita disposable income of urban residents was 11041 yuan in the first half of this year, an increase of 13.2% over the same period last year, a real increase of 7.6% after deducting price factors.

The per capita cash income of rural residents was 3706 yuan, an increase of 20.4% over the same period last year, a real increase of 13.7% after deducting price factors.

In terms of consumption, the total retail sales of consumer goods in the first half of this year amounted to 85833 billion yuan, an increase of 16.8% over the same period last year.

This pretty good pcript is immediate.

In the first half of the year, China's economy continued to grow steadily, showing the strong inertia of China's economy.

It will play a significant role in correcting China's economy.

The voice of "hard landing", "overshoot" or even "interest rate reduction" in the Chinese market this year has been proved to be all obvious misjudgments. It is not only a misreading of macro-control policies, but also a misjudgement of China's economic growth.

For investment decisions, such a miscarriage of justice can bring real gold and silver losses.

In the view of Ampang, the economic data in the first half of the year is more important. It clears up the fog of various macroeconomic policies in the second half of the year and clears up the future macroeconomic policy pattern.

As a recent analysis by ampong said, "for an economy of nearly 40 trillion, the growth rate of over 9% is quite high."

As long as the overall economic situation does not exist, this will give the policy-makers' continued control. "

It is believed that the economic data released in the first half of the year will make Chinese policy departments more free to deal with the core issue of inflation.

In the second half of this year, China's economic policy will remain at a macro level,

In the rhythm of the tight policy, there will be different steps in the second half of the year.

In the first half of this year, the Central Bank of China raised interest rates 3 times and raised the reserve requirement for 6 times. We estimate that this pace and intensity will not appear in the second half year.

As economic growth is likely to further slow down and structural adjustment is further pushed forward, macroeconomic policy will pay more attention to the balance between inflation and growth.

If the external environment does not suddenly deteriorate, policy operations will be more moderate in intensity.

In the view of Ampang, there are three aspects that deserve the attention of China's policy-makers.

In the first half of the year, many specific problems in the economy, such as the financing difficulties of SMEs, the high cost of logistics caused by arbitrary charges, the contradiction between local debt and local finance, are all related to the lack of marketization in China. It is necessary for the Chinese government to push ahead with reforms and get rid of these "obstructions" which impede economic operation.

Two, the financial market must continue to let go.

While macroeconomic policy is tight, we should further liberalize the micro market and promote more effective and active allocation of financial resources.

If the macro is tight and the micro is tighter, it will be a bad policy combination.

The three is to jump out of the Chinese market to see the Chinese economy.

In the first half of the year, China's economy showed a relatively strong trend. It will clear the pattern of macroeconomic policy in the second half of the year and define the direction of future policies, which is essential for judging the Chinese market situation.

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