Stock Selection Is Like Beauty Pageant &Nbsp; I Talk With Mr. Market Every Day.
Long-term
Ox stock
In the K-line chart, we will show some characteristics of Bull Stock ahead of time. This is not based on technical indicators. It is a kind of long-term experience accumulation and real feeling in the actual combat.
Although this feeling may be misjudged, will the performance of listed companies be accurate?
One morning in early July, it was raining cats and dogs outside the window. At this moment, the dense atmosphere of Shenzhen was in the summer rain. In the 33 floor of Futian District Allianz building, Chen Feng, general manager of Shenzhen exhibition investment, had an astonishing language. In this information age like floods, the pursuit of independent thinking, independent views and independent judgment became the core principle of Chen Feng's investment.
The private fund manager, who has been "concentrating on doing one thing", told the Securities Times reporter that what he wants to do and do is to talk with Mr. market every day, to understand what Mr. market is talking about, and to be a market gentleman's confidant.
Stock selection
Beauty pageant
Unlike many professional investors who emphasize the bottom-up selection of stocks, Chen Feng is more focused on trend investing, from macro to large, and finally to individual stocks.
In Chen Feng's eyes, investment is a science and an art. It is said that investment is science. It is mainly about establishing a research framework, learning financial analysis and valuing.
"But in the field of stock investment, sometimes we need to see one thing fuzzily. Fuzzy accuracy is often more valuable than accurate mistakes."
Chen Feng, a graduate of the Department of architecture in Wuhan University, has always found that there is some common relationship between architectural learning and his "beauty theory" on investment today.
To some extent, architecture is also an aesthetic knowledge. Many times, it is based on a common sense and understanding of the basic needs of human beings, such as whether space is comfortable and beautiful.
How does it feel?
People who study architecture need to have a good three-dimensional space thinking. People who invest in it also seem to need some three-dimensional thinking. Looking at a long-term trend chart of a stock, you can feel this is a company, an excellent company or a mediocre company, and sometimes this feeling can not be expressed in words accurately, to some extent, it has the same effect with the traditional aesthetical feeling of self absorption.
"Stock picking can also be like beauty appreciation and beauty pageant.
When you think a person is beautiful, in fact, where is the beauty, you are just a sense of the whole, and often can not be described in language.
Chen Feng usually used to watch the trend of the stock's long term K-line chart and appreciate something from it.
For example, in 2004 and 2005, the A share market was low in innovation, but the K-line charts of Tianwei Bao (18.84, -0.10, -0.53%) were long sideways and rose before the bull market in 2006. At that time, Chen Feng felt that this is likely to be a super Bull Stock in the future.
After that, the trend of Tianwei's change proved that Chen Feng felt quite right at that time.
He told reporters: "this long-term bull stock, on the K-line chart will show some characteristics of Niu shares ahead of time, this is not based on technical indicators come, is a kind of long-term experience accumulation and actual combat in the formation of the disk feeling."
As to whether this feeling will lead to a miscarriage of justice, Chen Feng asked, "is the performance of listed companies accurate?"
During the process of "Beauty Pageant", Chen Feng focused on the direction of the stock market and focused on the stocks with high innovation.
Chen Feng thought, in addition to
Restructured shares
Besides, the trend of stock actually reflects the fundamentals of listed companies. Investors can judge the fundamentals of listed companies from the trend of stock prices, and then confirm them from the fundamentals.
Take bank shares as an example. From last year to now, although the performance of bank shares is stable and the valuation is as low as 8 times, the stock price trend is not good.
Chen Feng believes that in fact, the current trend of banking stocks has reflected the performance of the industry after 35 years.
With the structural pformation of China's economy, the growth of bank shares in the future is unlikely to continue to maintain such a high level, and new risk factors will gradually emerge.
But if we understand stock prices simply from the fundamentals of banking stocks, we can not explain why banks are so cheap but always in a downturn.
"Understanding the fundamentals of the future with the current share price is usually proved to be right after the event, but it is often difficult to understand the stock price based on the fundamentals."
Chen Feng said.
In the first half of 2008, for example, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped to more than 4000 at the 6124 peak of 2007, especially from about 5500 to 4000. It took only about half a month. Many voices thought that the A share market was irrational. But in fact, the stock index was an early response to the crisis in the next half year, and some smart money in the market had foreseen a worse phenomenon in the global economy ahead of time.
If we look at the macroeconomic situation at that time, we will not be able to analyze and understand why the market has suffered such a slump.
Following the "beauty theory", Chen Feng advocated the market.
Rise
When it comes to selecting good stocks in the industry, it is necessary to select those offensive assets so as to maximize revenue when the market is rising.
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