July CPI Or New High &Nbsp; Interest Rate Increase Is Expected To Increase.

The National Bureau of statistics will announce the July consumer price index (CPI) and industrial products production in August 9th. Price Index (PPI) data. Many experts predict that CPI will remain high in July, even higher than 6.4% in June, and will climb to a new high.

Micro-blog CPI, deputy director of the Financial Research Institute of the State Council Development Research Center, said that in June, the CPI rose 6.4% over the same period, mainly driven by rising food prices led by pork. In July, even if the international commodity price fall could offset some of the price increase factors, the tail factor also dropped. CPI was only slightly down compared with June, and is expected to remain above 6%. The three quarter price The rally may still be higher, up 5% over the same period.

Li Huiyong, chief macroeconomic analyst at Shenyin Wanguo believes that CPI is expected to grow at 6.7% in July, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from last month. He thinks pork and aquatic products in food become the main force to push CPI to a new high in July. With the fall of the tail factor and the fall in pork prices, it is expected that the CPI growth will begin to fall in August. After October, the price increase will decline significantly, with the annual increase of 5.2%, showing a trend of inverted U.

Li Xunlei, chief economist of Guotai Junan, also holds the same view. He thought that July CPI is expected to hit a new high. Although the CPI is expected to slow down in the second half of the year, the inflationary pressure is still very large, with CPI expected to be 5%~5.2% for the whole year. Lu Zheng commissar (micro-blog), chief economist of Industrial Bank, also believes that CPI will continue to rush to around 6.5% in July, and the ring ratio will continue to be significantly higher than the normal level of history, and probably not the peak of the year.

The outlook for macroeconomic data released by CITIC Securities is also expected to increase by 6.5% in July, up to a record high of CPI in the same period last year. The report pointed out that although the price of meat fell slightly in the middle of 7 months, other food prices increased, bringing the overall level of food prices up relative to June. Non food prices are expected to be basically stable in July, and food prices will rise by around 1.5%, which will push CPI up 0.5% in July.

With a number of agencies predicting July CPI The year-on-year increase is still likely to be high, and the market is expected to continue to raise interest rates in August. Ba Shu Song said that if the CPI growth rate in the three quarter of 3 months rose by more than 5%, there should be a two to raise interest rates. On the one hand, the price increase is still at a high level. The interest rate increase is conducive to curbing inflation expectations. At the same time, as the real interest rate level of the market has increased significantly, interest rate increase is only a policy action to correct negative interest rates, narrow the gap between the market and the financing interest rate, and has a limited impact on the real economy.

Lu commissar said that taking into account the current anti inflation is still the primary task, and the current price situation also means that the annual CPI control within 5% of the task will be quite arduous. Therefore, it is expected to continue to raise interest rates in August, but the monthly deposit reserve rate will not increase every month.

Lu believes that raising interest rates in general will help curb the strong speculative atmosphere of assets and help enterprises to return to their main businesses. At the same time, increasing interest rates to reduce excessive use of limited credit resources by large enterprises is conducive to the realization of more valuable credit resources allocated to SMEs.