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Multi Agency Forecast CPI Will Be High In July

2011/8/5 15:48:00 40

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Forecast July CPI New High Interest Rate Increase

The National Bureau of statistics will announce the July consumer price index (CPI) next Tuesday (9).

Yesterday, a number of research institutions and experts predicted that the CPI growth in July was roughly the same as in June. Some agencies even said that CPI would exceed June in July.

In view of this, the market is expected to raise interest rates again in August.

Lu Zheng commissar, chief economist of Industrial Bank [12.85 -2.21%, thinks that CPI will continue to rush to about 6.5% in July after its new high in June, and the ring ratio will continue to be significantly higher than the normal level of history.

CITIC Securities [12.04 -1.55% shares] predicted that in July, CPI will rise by 6.4% over June, and PPI will exceed 7.1% in June to 7.3% in June.

Soochow securities expects CPI to rise 6.5% to 6.7% in July.

Guotai Junan Securities forecasts CPI growth of 6.3% in July, an increase of less than 6.4% in June.

According to the report, pork prices fell in the second week of July, and this week was also the food general monitored by the Ministry of Commerce.

Price

It fell for the first time in nearly a month.

Northeast Securities [18.73 -2.35% shares] and other agencies predict the same value as Guotai Junan.

Since the beginning of this year, the central bank's monetary policy has maintained the rhythm of "one month to one raise" and "one month increase in interest rates", which has led the market to predict that interest rates will be imminent in August.

A large securities firm trader believes that the open market continues to operate in quantity, and the reserves are not yet operational in the near future.

"The possibility of raising interest rates in August is very great," said Lu Commissar. "Anti inflation is still the top priority.

At present, the central bank has not loosened monetary policy. "

Guotai Junan analyst Hu Da pointed out that the central bank is in the currency.

policy

The new changes in wording deserve our attention.

In the short term, Hu said that the CPI growth rate in July is expected to reach 6.3% to 6.5%. In August, the central bank still has a larger driving force to increase interest rates.

Another analyst, who declined to be named, also pointed out that the market's expectation of slow down in the second half of the year is likely to fail. The CPI growth rate in July is expected to reach 6.6%, which is again beyond the level of June.

The analysts said the central bank could still raise interest rates again in August.