China'S Trade Surplus Hit A 30 Month High.

Customs General Administration released 10 data China's trade balance in July amounted to US $31 billion 480 million, an increase of US $9 billion 210 million over June, a record high since February 2009. Experts pointed out that in the context of the United States and Europe, the debt crisis has been delayed and the global economic recovery is weak. China must take measures to narrow the trade surplus and reduce foreign exchange reserves.

Customs data show that in July, the scale of China's foreign trade exports reached a record high of 175 billion 130 million US dollars, and its export growth rate rose to 20.4% after four consecutive months of decline. In the first 7 months, the total value of China's foreign trade has exceeded $2 trillion.

Foreign trade experts worry that the US dollar debt rating downgrade, sluggish economic recovery and the third round of quantitative easing policies that may be released ahead of schedule in response to the current crisis will make the US dollar depreciate for a long time and US dollar assets seriously shrink. Therefore, it is obviously unwise to continue to expand the trade surplus and increase foreign exchange reserves.

Zhao Jinping, Vice Minister of the Ministry of foreign economic development of the State Council Development Research Center, believes that the main reasons for the huge trade surplus in July are: the large export base and the rebound of growth; the reduction of domestic market and the reduction of effective demand has led to a general decline in import growth; moreover, the world economic outlook is pessimistic, which has a downward pulling effect on international commodity prices, bringing the growth of imports to the amount. decline Trend.

According to customs data, in July, China imported 143 billion 640 million US dollars, an increase of 22.9%. Import growth is only 2.5 percentage points higher than export growth.

Zhao Jinping also pointed out that China exists at this stage. Trade The surplus is an objective reflection of the relationship between supply and demand in the internal market and the division of labor in the international industry. The world has a large demand for China's low quality products produced under comparative advantage, and manufacturing industry remains the most important industry in China for a long time and the most important support for the third industry. The existence of trade surplus has its objectivity and rationality.

"In the current situation, the contribution of China's exports to the economy must be reflected in quality and efficiency, rather than speed and scale." Zhang Yansheng, director of the Institute of foreign economic research, National Institute of macroeconomics, national development and Reform Commission, said. The trade surplus increases, triggering trade friction and pushing up foreign exchange reserves.

The national enlarged import work conference, which has been held by many ministries such as the Ministry of Commerce, the Ministry of Finance and the General Administration of customs, has not been convened. It is reported that in this national expansion of import work conference, tax reduction and other substantive promotion of import expansion rules will be formally promulgated.

Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Ministry of macroeconomic development of the State Council Development Research Center, said that China needs to increase the purchasing power of residents, increase investment in people's livelihood, expand domestic demand, bring the market for export to domestic sales, use the domestic market to digest capacity, and reduce trade to a certain extent. surplus 。

"The foreign trade figures for July are not enough to show that the trade surplus will continue to expand. The US and European debt crisis and external demand growth are sluggish, and the space for China's export growth is limited. Zhao Jinping believes that China's foreign trade surplus in 2011 will remain unchanged from last year.

Experts have different opinions on the impact of the US debt rating reduction on China's foreign trade exports. Wang Jun, Vice Minister of consulting and Research Department of China International Economic Exchange Center, believes that the market will be shaken and deeply adjusted in the short term. In the long run, the US national credit will be impacted, and the depreciation trend of the US dollar in the medium and long term has taken shape. Therefore, China's export growth may decline sharply, and export enterprises will feel pressure in the coming months.

Tan Yaling, Dean of China's foreign exchange investment research institute, believes that the decline in the US debt rating is only the surface of the US debt crisis. It is a market turmoil caused by psychological panic and will not spread to the real economy. The sharp rise in the US stock market also means that the United States is still very strong in its ability to coordinate and control the market. Therefore, it is unlikely that China's exports will be affected by this impact in the second half of this year.

"The problem of China's exports is that the quality and technology content has been neglected in the rapid expansion of export volume. At the initial stage of development, China still needs to rely on traditional export industries. However, it is in these industrial chains and ordinary, traditional export industries that the technological content of Chinese products is too low. " Tan Yaling said.

In a recent report, the Asian Development Bank pointed out that the export of Asia Pacific emerging economies such as China and other Asian economies to Europe and the United States may decline, but trade in the Asia Pacific region has a strong growth potential.

Customs data show that in the first 7 months of bilateral trade with major trading partners, bilateral trade between China and Europe amounted to US $318 billion 610 million, an increase of 21.1%. Over the same period, bilateral trade between China and the United States amounted to US $245 billion 490 million, an increase of 18.5%.

In addition, bilateral trade between China and ASEAN amounted to US $202 billion 90 million, an increase of 25.5%. China's trade deficit with ASEAN reached 11 billion 950 million US dollars, an expansion of 57.3%. Sino Japanese bilateral trade totaled 191 billion 290 million US dollars, an increase of 18.3%. China's trade deficit with Japan was 29 billion 450 million US dollars, a decrease of 6.2%.