Precursors Of Dual Rate Simultaneous Movement&Nbsp; Strong Desire Of Overseas Hot Money

"Four Sides" entangle A-share or sink 2600 points in a protracted war

When the Shanghai Composite Index returns to the "origin" of the 2600 point market, the peripheral "face" is no longer so important, and its own "qualification" is the decision 2600 points The key to breaking out of the encirclement is that A-share "going up the stairs" may need to watch while walking.

In terms of economic fundamentals, the fermentation of the debt crisis in Europe and the United States will undoubtedly drag down the recovery pace of European and American economies, thus increasing China's export pressure in the second half of the year. At the policy level, although the resumption of three-year central bank bills has continued to weaken the expectation of "raising reserve requirements", the voice of interest rate increases has quietly heated up, and short-term policy is still difficult to see signs of relaxation. In terms of funds, although the most tense stage of funds has passed, it is difficult to see easing in the short term, and the high interest rate of funds may hover or become normal. Technically, the index has returned to the "origin" before the crash, that is, the 2600 point platform, which has actually completed the preliminary task of rebounding. Next, to break through the index, to a certain extent, it needs the cooperation of trading volume, but it is difficult for the shrinking trading volume to hasten the emergence of the market to tackle key problems.

Economic worries, "bombs" hidden in exports

Since this year, although there have been several interest rate hikes and "reserve requirement raising", the domestic economy has always maintained a good momentum. The macroeconomic data released in July once again gave the market a satisfactory answer. Year on year added value of industries above designated size in July Substantial increase 14%, up 0.9% month on month; The monthly export scale in July broke the historical record of US $161.97 billion just set in June, with a year-on-year increase of 20.4%; The expected consumption kept a relatively stable running trend. In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 17.9% year on year, but the growth rate fell 0.4 percentage points compared with the previous month.

At least until now, the domestic economy has still maintained a stable running trend. However, behind the apparent prosperity, some economic worries are gradually emerging.

The biggest worry at present is nothing more than the risk that the slowdown of the recovery of European and American economies may lead to the contraction of exports in the second half of the year. According to statistics, Europe, Japan and some emerging market countries have been the main forces driving China's exports. The smooth recovery process of European economies has a great impact on domestic exports. At present, although the European Central Bank has stepped out to rescue the market and lowered the yield of relevant bonds, thus temporarily stopping the eruption of the European debt volcano, due to the lack of a long-term effective solution mechanism for the European debt problem, the risk of sounding the European debt alarm again will not be ruled out in the future. This will increase the uncertainty of the recovery of European economies, so China's external demand environment will inevitably deteriorate. Under this logic, the export situation in the second half of the year is indeed worrying.

except exit In addition to this "hidden bomb", the destocking cycle that began in the third quarter and the release of the cumulative effect of the tightening policy will exert certain pressure on the economic downturn to varying degrees. In July, the purchasing managers' index of China's manufacturing industry released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing was 50.7, approaching the 50% threshold of prosperity and decline, 0.2 percentage points down month on month. Recently, Standard Chartered Bank predicted that PMI in August might fall below 50. In general, at the moment of high prices of raw materials and abnormally high capital costs caused by continuous tightening, enterprises' production willingness is generally weak, and the cycle of destocking is still continuing. It is not possible to eliminate the possibility of deepening the inventory range in the future, which will certainly exacerbate the risk of economic downturn.

Interest rate increase to be observed, tightening is difficult to "end"

At the beginning of this month, when the National Bureau of Statistics announced that the CPI in July had once again refreshed the current round of inflation peak, the market once speculated that the boots of interest rate increase would come into effect. However, perhaps it is the sudden fermentation of the debt crisis in Europe and the United States that has objectively disrupted the regulatory pace of the regulatory authorities, and the interest rate hike is still only a thunderclap without rain. When the market temporarily reached a consensus that interest rates would not be raised in August, the unexpected rise in the interest rate of one-year central bank bills once again surfaced the expectation of interest rate increases.

Let's not talk about whether the signal of rising central bank bill interest rate is credible. As we all know, since this year, the central bank has offered several sharp swords to raise interest rates, all aimed at lowering inflation. To some extent, the CPI hit a new high in July, which reassured the market and management. After all, in the context of the sharp fall of international commodity prices and the slight fall of domestic agricultural product prices in early August, the probability of CPI continuing to hit a new high in August is very small, and July CPI is likely to be the peak of this round of inflation.

Since July CPI The probability of reaching the top is relatively high, so even if the CPI decline is not obvious in the future, the trend of inflation decline will be further established against the background of the decline of tail raising factors and new price rising factors. This will undoubtedly make the management slow down the pace of tightening before, in other words, the policy will enter the observation period. In addition, although the economic downturn is small, the trend of slow decline is relatively clear. Under the background of basically established downward trend of inflation, it is not necessary for the management to offer sharp tools for interest rate increase again. After all, at this time, interest rate increase may cause more harm to the economy.

It is worth noting that the policy enters the observation period, which does not mean the end of the tightening policy. Although the downward trend of inflation in the second half of the year has been established, the downward range may be small. It is not ruled out that inflation will hover at a high level in the future. Against this background, the tightening policy will not be relaxed.

　 A share is afraid of "lack of money" due to insufficient funds

Since July, the capital interest rate that once seemed like a runaway wild horse has finally dropped sharply, and the capital has also passed the most tense moment. As of the 17th day of this month, SHIBOR overnight, SHIBOR one week, SHIBOR two weeks, SHIBOR one month and SHIBOR three month interest rates were 2.9992%, 3.2167%, 3.2736%, 4.8861% and 5.4443% respectively. Among them, short-term interest rate varieties did drop significantly compared with the previous high of more than 9%, but on the whole, after the initial decline, the current medium and short end interest rate varieties are maintained at a relatively high level in the year. However, this may indicate that it is difficult for the capital surface in the third quarter to be more relaxed than expected, and it may just be a gradual transition from too tight to neutral.

The fund interest rate hovers at a relatively high level, indicating that liquidity is still tight and the market is still "short of money". In fact, the operation of the central bank in the open market further confirmed that the current capital level is still in a relatively tight state. As of last week, the central bank has realized net investment in the open market for four consecutive weeks to ease the tension of funds. This week and some time in the future, due to the small amount of funds due, the central bank is expected to continue the trend of small net investment, which just shows that the short-term market is still "short of money".

However, it is worth noting that the news that RQFII is expected to invest in the domestic securities market will more or less benefit the market capital. However, in view of the limited scale of overseas RMB and the fact that the investment channels are not limited to the A-share market, it is expected that its impact on the capital and even the A-share market will be relatively limited.

Liangneng is still shrinking and the market returns to the "origin"

The weakening of overseas factors has pushed A-shares back to the 2600 point mark of the "origin" of the market. However, the continuous shrinking of trading volume has forced the 2600 point battle to reach a deadlock.

Theoretically, the "lost ground" formed by the external impact has been fully recovered at present. That is to say, the initial task of this round of oversold rebound of A-share has been declared completed. Judging from the characteristics of the current market, the early concept of big consumption and other strong stocks all retreated; According to historical experience, most of the cover falls of strong stocks represent the end of a market decline. It is still to be verified whether this strong stock fall supplement is an order to end a round of market decline or the start of a new round of market decline.

From the perspective of the four endogenous factors of the market, the key factors that currently affect the operation of the market may be more economic and policy changes. At present, the risk of economic downturn still exists, and the resulting fear may escalate. In fact, once the future economic data shows that the risk of economic downturn exceeds the expectation, the market will have a greater probability of bottoming out again. However, for the moment, this risk is still under observation, which may suppress the market upward, but it may not necessarily push the market to immediately choose the bottom downward. At the policy level, in the short term, it should still be in the observation period, and the regulatory authorities will not rashly offer sharp tools to raise interest rates. In this context, the current policy situation will not exert direct downward pressure on the market.

On the whole, it is more likely that the market will fall into a 2600 point protracted war.